Overview of Canadian Dollars (CAD)

 

Canada was a resource-based country, and its early economic development depended on the action and export of natural resources. Early economic growth in Canada relied on the development and export of natural resources. Canada is currently the world’s fifth-largest gold producer and the world’s 14th-largest oil producer.

However, three out of every four Koreans work in the service industry, with the service sector accounting for more than two-thirds of Canada’s GDP. One of the vital service sectors is that companies procure a significant portion of their services through subcontracting.

For example, a manufacturer subcontracts its transport demand to a carrier. Although Canada’s economy relies heavily on the service sector, manufacturing and resource industries account for more than 25% of Canada’s exports, making it a major income source for many regions.

The Canadian economy began to grow with a weakening Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar and a free trade agreement on January 1, 1989. The agreement eliminated tariffs on almost all trade between the United States and Canada. As a result, Canada exports more than 78 per cent of its products to the United States.

In January 1994, the North American Free Trade Agreement NORTH AMERICAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT (NAFTA), including Mexico, abolished most tariffs between the three North American countries. Due to the close trade partnership between the U.S. and Canada, Canada is very sensitive to the U.S. economic situation. If the U.S. economy is unstable, demand for exports to Canada will decrease. The opposite is the same, so exports to Canada will benefit when the U.S. economy is booming.

 

Bank of Canada Determines Monetary Policy

 

The central bank of Canada is the Bank of Canada BANK OF CANADA, BOC. Monetary policy is determined by the Central Bank of Canada Policy Committee, which consists of one president and six vice presidents. Canada’s central bank holds about eight annual meetings to discuss changes in monetary policy. It also publishes monetary policy reports every quarter.

 

1. Central Bank Objectives

 

Canada’s central bank’s goal is to maintain ‘intelligence and value of currency’. This basically means stabilizing prices. Price stability is maintained by maintaining inflation targets agreed with the Treasury Department. The current inflation target is set at 1–3%.

Canada’s central bank believes that high inflation will be a stumbling block to making the economy difficult. In contrast, low inflation can stabilize prices, which helps achieve sustainable long-term economic growth goals. The Bank of Canada controls inflation through short-term interest rates. If inflation exceeds the target, Canada’s central bank will implement a tight monetary policy. On the contrary, if inflation falls below the target, Canada’s central bank will ease its monetary policy. Overall, Canada’s central bank has maintained its inflation target very well within the range of 1–3% since 1998.

The Bank of Canada measures currency conditions through the MONETARY CONDITIONS INDEX, MCI, a currency situation index calculated by increasing the 90-day commercial bill rate change and the G-10 trade-weighted exchange rate change. Canada’s interest rate-to-exchange weight was set at 3:1 based on historical research and refers to the effect of interest rates and exchange rates on changes in economic conditions (i.e., MCI INDEX = 90-day commercial note rate change + 1/3 (trade-weighted exchange rate change).

This means that a 1% short-term interest rate hike has a similar impact as a 3% increase in the trade-weighted exchange rate. Canada’s central bank will adjust bank interest rates to change its monetary policy, which will affect the exchange rate.

If the exchange rate rises to an undesirable level, Canada’s central bank can cut interest rates to limit the rise, and if the exchange rate falls, it can raise interest rates on the contrary. However, it does not actually adjust interest rates to control the exchange rate but instead uses a controlling inflation method. The following are the most common policy measures used by the Canadian central bank to implement monetary policy.

 

2. Bank interest rate

 

This is a significant interest rate that the Canadian Central Bank uses to control inflation, the Commercial Bank of Canada. If the interest rate changes, other interest rates, including mortgage rates and preferential rates, will also be adjusted for commercial banks. Therefore, changes in interest rates will affect the overall economy.

 

3. Open Market Manipulation

 

LARGE VALUE TRANSFER SYSTEM (LVTS), an extensive payment system, is a primary system for implementing monetary policy by the Central Bank of Canada. Commercial banks in Canada are borrowing or lending funds through the LVTSR to meet their daily funding balance. LVTS is a computer platform that handles large-scale transactions between financial institutions. Interest rates applied to these daily money transactions are called overnight rates or bank rates. If these overnight interest rates are higher or lower than market interest rates, Canada’s central bank adjusts its lending rates to commercial banks to change the overnight interest rates.

The Bank of Canada regularly publishes several publications, including semi-annual monetary policy reports that assess the impact of current economic conditions and inflation and quarterly Canadian central bank reports, including financial commentary, feature articles, executive committee comments and important announcements.

 

Key Characteristics of Canadian Dollars

 

 

1. Product-Related Currency

 

Canada’s economy is highly dependent on products. Canada is the world’s fifth-largest gold producer and the 14th-largest oil producer. The definition correlation between Canadian dollars and commodity prices amounts to about 60%. Rising commodity prices generally benefit domestic producers and increase income from exports. It is important to note that rising commodity prices eventually affect import demand from abroad, such as the United States, resulting in a drop in Canadian exports.

 

2. Strong Connection with the United States.

 

The United States accounts for 78 per cent of Canada’s total exports. Canada has recorded a surplus in trade with the United States since the 1980s. In 2003, the U.S. current account surplus hit an all-time high of $90 billion. Canada’s energy exports reached a record high of about $36 billion in 2001 due to rising energy prices along with high U.S. demand for imports.

Therefore, Canada’s economy is susceptible to changes in the U.S. economy. As U.S. economic growth accelerates, trade with Canadian companies increases, thereby benefiting the Canadian economy. However, if the U.S. economy slows, the Canadian economy will be shocked as U.S. companies cut back on imports.

 

3. M&A

 

Due to the proximity of the United States and Canada, cross-border mergers and acquisitions are widespread as part of an internationalization strategy pursued by many companies worldwide. This merger and acquisition create a flow of funds between the two countries, ultimately affecting the currency.

 

4. Interest Rate Difference

 

Professional Canadian dollar traders are closely monitoring the difference between central bank interest rates in Canada and short-term interest rates in other developed countries. These differences can be a good indicator of potential cash flows. This is because it is possible to determine how much the premium of Canadian short-term bonds is higher than vice versa. As investors are always pursuing high-yield assets, the difference in interest rates between the two currencies is an indicator of traders’ potential currency movements. This is very important for Carrey traders who want to enter or liquidate their positions depending on the interest rate gap between global bonds.

 

5. Carry Trade

 

Carry Trading is to buy or operate low-interest currency assets by selling or borrowing low-interest currency. When Canadian interest rates are higher than U.S. interest rates, the USD/CAD sell-carry trade increases the widespread carry trade opportunity due to their proximity.

Many foreign investors and hedge funds are looking for opportunities to earn high returns, so Carrie Trading is very common. If the U.S. implements austerity measures or Canada begins to cut interest rates, the interest rate gap between the Canadian dollar and the U.S. will narrow. In that situation, the Canadian dollar will be under downward pressure if investors start liquidating the Carrie trade.

 

Important Economic Indicators in Canada

 

 

1. Unemployment

The unemployment rate is expressed as a percentage of the unemployed population for the total working population.

 

2. Consumer Price Index

 

This represents the average increase in prices. If economists refer to inflation as an economic problem, this usually means that general inflation levels, which lead to a decline in monetary purchasing power, continue to rise over a period of time. Inflation usually represents an increase in the CPI of the Consumer Price Index as a percentage.

The Canadian inflation policy, determined by the federal government and Canada’s central bank, is based on maintaining inflation within the target range of 1–3%. If inflation is 10 per cent per year, the purchase value of $100 last year will average $110 this year, and if the same inflation conditions are the case in the coming years, it will cost $121 to purchase.

 

3. Gross Domestic Product

 

Canada’s GDP is the sum of all goods and services produced in Canada over a year. This also means income from goods and services produced in Canada. Because GDP represents the gross product, only the final output of goods and services is aggregated except for intermediate goods to avoid duplicate calculations. For example, wheat used to make bread is not included in the GDP tally because it is an intermediate product, but only the final bread is included.

 

4. Trade Balance

 

The balance of trade represents the trade history of goods and services in a country. This includes the exchange of products, raw materials, agricultural products, travel, and transportation. The trade balance is a difference between the total amount of goods and services exported by Canada. If Canadian exports exceed imports, it is a trade surplus, and the trade balance represents a plus. If imports exceed exports, they are in the trade deficit, and the trade balance is negative.

 

 

5. Producer Price Index

 

The producer price index PPI is an index group that measures the average change in domestic producers’ selling price. The PPI tracks prices in most production industries in the domestic economy, including agriculture, electronics, natural gas, forestry, fisheries, manufacturing and mining. The foreign exchange market watches how the PPI and PPI indexes of seasonally adjusted final goods have changed monthly, quarterly, semi-annual, and year-on-year.

 

6. Consumer Spending

 

It is a national account that measures expenditure by stores and consumption by individual non-profit operators for households. This includes purchasing durable goods as well as non-durable goods. However, it does not include individual home purchase expenditure and private entity capital expenditure.

Overview of New Zealand Dollar

 

New Zealand has been one of the most regulated countries in OCED, but it has been aiming for an open, modern and stable government for the past 30 years. Following the Fiscal Responsibility Act 1994 of the Fiscal Responsibility Act, New Zealand has shifted from agricultural countries to knowledge-based economies with a high level of technology and full-employment.

The law establishes legal standards that support the government’s official responsible for financial management and shows a macroeconomic policy system in New Zealand. New Zealand has been highly developed in the manufacturing and service sectors and agriculture, which leads to most of its national exports. New Zealand is a trade-oriented country, with commodity exports and service trade accounting for about one-third of GDP.

New Zealand is highly sensitive to global economic conditions, especially those of its major trading partners, Australia and Japan, because of its small economy and large trade volume. New Zealand’s GDP shrank 1.3% during the Asian crisis. This is attributed to decreased agricultural and agricultural-related production and decreased exports and demand due to two consecutive years of drought. New Zealand’s most important trading partners are:

 

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)

Determine Monetary Policy

 

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is the central bank of New Zealand. The Monetary Policy Committee is an in-bank committee that reviews monetary policy every week. Monetary policy-making meetings are held eight times a year, or almost every six weeks. Unlike other central banks, interest rate adjustments are ultimately decided by the bank president. The minister and the governor determine the current policy objective agreement and focus on maintaining policy stability to avoid the gross product, interest rates, and exchange rates.

Price stability aims to maintain 1.5% of annual CPI. This situation is unlikely to occur if RBNZ fails to achieve this goal, but the government could dismiss the RBNZ president. This strongly encourages RBNZ to achieve its inflation target. The most common tools used by RBNZ to implement monetary policy changes in interest rates.

Key Characteristics of New Zealand Dollars

 

1. Strong association with AUD

 

Australia is New Zealand’s largest trading partner. Along with its positional proximity, New Zealand is a trade-oriented country that has created a strong bond between the two countries economies. New Zealand is the first country to suffer flood damage when Australia’s economy is booming, and Australian companies increase their export activities. In fact, since 1999, Australia’s economy has been booming due to a housing market boom that has led to increased demand for building materials. As a result, Australia’s imports to New Zealand increased by 10% between 1999 and 2002.

 

2. Product-related currency

 

New Zealand is a commodity-export-oriented country where exports of goods account for more than 40% of its exports. This created a 50% definition correlation between the New Zealand dollar and the commodity price. When commodity prices rise, the New Zealand dollar gains an upward trend.

The New Zealand dollar status as a commodity-related currency links the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar. The correlation between commodity prices and the New Zealand dollar is not limited to New Zealand’s trade activities but is also deeply related to the Australian economy’s performance.

Since the Australian economy’s performance is also deeply related to commodity prices, rising commodity prices will benefit the Australian economy and increase economic activity across national operations, including trade with New Zealand.

 

3. Carry Trade

 

New Zealand has one of the highest interest rates among developed countries. The New Zealand dollar has traditionally been considered one of the most valuable currencies for the Carrey trade purchase. Carry trading is buying or operating low-interest currency assets by selling or borrowing low-interest currencies. With many global investors looking for investment destinations to earn high profits, Carrie Trading’s popularisation has created a rise in the New Zealand dollar.

However, this also made the New Zealand dollar very sensitive to interest rate fluctuations. If New Zealand maintains or cuts interest rates while the U.S. raises interest rates, the New Zealand dollar’s Carrey’s merit will decrease. In this situation, the New Zealand dollar will be under downward pressure if investors liquidate their Carrie trade positions.

 

4. Interest rate difference

 

Professional NZD traders closely watch the difference in interest rates between New Zealand’s interest rates and other advanced countries’ interest rates. The difference in interest rates is a good indicator of potential currency flows because it can determine the extent to which the premium of New Zealand’s short-term bonds is higher than or vice versa.

Because investors are always looking for high-yield assets, this difference indicates potential currency movements for traders. This is especially important for Carrey traders who want to enter or liquidate their positions depending on the interest rate gap between global bonds.

 

5. Population movement

 

New Zealand’s population is less than half of New York’s population. As a result, New Zealand’s economy can be significantly affected by the increase in immigrants to New Zealand immigrants. New Zealand population increased by 1,700 between 2001 and 2002, while that of New Zealand increased by 160,000 between 2006 and 2997.

It looks small, but it is significant for New Zealand. Immigration to New Zealand contributes quite a bit to economic performance. This is because as the population increases, demand for daily necessities increases and overall consumption increases.

 

6. Drought Impact

 

Since most of New Zealand’s exports are goods, New Zealand’s GDP is very sensitive to extreme weather conditions that damage agricultural activity. In 1998, the national expenditure from the drought exceeded 50 trillion won. Moreover, droughts often occur in Australia, New Zealand’s largest trading partner. The drought will result in losses of more than 1% of Australia’s GDP, which will negatively impact New Zealand’s economy.

 

Significant economic indicators in New Zealand

 

New Zealand does not often publish economic indicators, but the following indicators are critical.

 

1. Gross Domestic Product

 

GDP is the sum of the market value of all goods and services produced in New Zealand. GDP is calculated, including expenditure by households, businesses, governments, and net foreign purchases. The GDP deflator is used to convert the gross output measured at the current price to fixed dollar GDP for the base year.

This indicator is used to determine the current location of the New Zealand business cycle. High rates of success are often interpreted as inflation, and low growth rates suggest a recession or sluggish economic growth.

 

2. Consumer Price Index

 

The Consumer Price Index CPI measures changes in prices of goods and service baskets every quarter, which account for a high percentage of expenditures by the CPI sample group. This basket includes a wide range of goods and services, including food, housing, education, transport, and health. Monetary policy is an important indicator because it is based on this index, a measure of inflation.

Overview of Australian Dollars (AUD)

 

Australia is the fifth largest country in the Asia-Pacific region by GDP. Although the economy is relatively small, it is comparable to Western European countries by GDP per capita. It is a service-oriented country, with 79 per cent of GDP generated by the financial, real estate and corporate services industries. However, Australia is under a trade deficit with a high proportion of manufacturing exports in which commodity exports account for more than 60%.

As a result, the entire economy is sensitive to changes in commodity prices. Analysis of trade partners is important because Australia’s major trading partners’ economic downturn or rapid growth greatly affects Australia’s import and export demand. Japan and ASEAN are the most important importers of Australian goods. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations includes Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.

Australia maintained strong growth by solidifying the foundation of “strong domestic consumption” and was able to withstand the past economic crisis. Consumption has been steadily increasing since the 1980s. Therefore, consumer spending is an important economic indicator that should be watched as a signal to confirm the impact of the economic slowdown on Australia’s domestic consumption during the global economic downturn.

 

Reserve Bank of Australia

Determines Monetary Policy

 

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is the central bank of Australia. The Monetary Policy Committee determines monetary policy to achieve the targeted goals.

The government has set an unofficial consumer price inflation target at an annual rate of 2 to 3 per cent. The RBA believes that the key to sustainable economic growth in the long term is inflation control, which maintains proper monetary value.

Inflation targets also provide rules for determining monetary policy and provide guidelines for private-sector inflation expectations. This increases transparency in central bank policies. If inflation or inflation expectations exceed 2 to 3 per cent, traders will expect the RBA to implement a tight monetary policy.

Monetary policy decisions include setting the overnight lending rate in the currency market. Borrowers and lenders in financial markets are affected by these monetary policies (but not just by monetary policy) because changes in overnight lending rates affect various other interest rates.

1. Central Bank Interest Rate

 

The central bank interest rate is the RBA’s target for open market manipulation. This interest rate is on overnight loans between financial institutions, which is closely related to market capitalization. Changes in monetary policy directly affect the financial system’s structure and affect the value of the currency.

 

2. Interest Rate Maintenance – Open Market Manipulation

 

The purpose of open market manipulation is to keep the central bank’s interest rate close to the target by providing liquidity to commercial banks. If the central bank wants to cut interest rates, it could increase the supply of short-term repurchase agreements at lower interest rates than general interest rates. If the central bank wants to raise interest rates, it will raise interest rates by reducing the supply of short-term repurchase agreements.

The redemption agreement is a transaction in which the commercial bank sells the securities to the RBA after agreeing to buy the same amount of securities again on the specified date in the future. This structure is similar to a mortgage and Repo deals have very short maturities from one day to a few weeks.

Australia introduced a floating exchange rate system in 1983. RBA can intervene in the exchange rate market if market volatility increases excessively. RBA observes the trade price index and the cross-exchange rate with the dollar closely. Market intervention is aimed at stabilizing the market environment rather than achieving the goal of the exchange rate.

 

3. Monetary Policy Conference

 

The RBA discusses potential changes in monetary policy on the first Tuesday of each month except January. After all meetings, it issues a press release explaining the justifiable reasons for the change in monetary policy and releases a statement regardless of whether interest rates change.

The RBA publishes semi-annual monetary policy statement in May and November. And on February, May, August and November quarterly reports on the economy and financial markets are published. These reports are recommended to be scrutinized as you can detect potential signs of monetary policy change.

 

 

Key Characteristics of Australian Dollars

 

 

 

1. Product-Related Currency

 

Historically, the Australian dollar has had a strong relationship with commodity prices, especially gold prices, reaching nearly 80 per cent. This stems from the fact that Australia is the world’s third-largest gold producer. As a result, the Australian dollar benefits when commodity prices rise, but the Australian dollar also falls when commodity prices fall.

Higher commodity prices will heighten inflation concerns, and the RBA will raise interest rates to curb inflation. However, gold prices tend to rise in the age of uncertainty in the global economy or political issue. If the RBA raises interest rates in this situation, Australia will be more vulnerable to uncertainties.

2. Carry Trade Effect

 

The Australian dollar is most commonly used in-carry trading because of its high liquidity and interest rate. Carry trading is the purchase of high-interest monetary assets by selling or borrowing low-interest currencies. The Australian dollar rose 95 per cent against the U.S. dollar from 2001 to 2007.

Many foreign investors have been looking for high-yield investments when the return on the stock investment is low. Carry trade will continue as long as there are opportunities. If global central banks raise interest rates and the interest rate gap narrows between Australia and other countries, AUD/USD will be hit by the carry-trade liquidation.

 

3. Drought Impact

 

As commodities account for most of Australia’s exports, Australia’s GDP is very sensitive to the climate environment that damages agricultural activity. For example, 2002 was a challenging year for Australia to find a severe drought, and it hit the Australian agricultural sector tremendously.

Agriculture is vital as it accounts for 3% of Australia’s GDP. The RBA estimates that a decrease in agricultural production could directly reduce GDP growth by 1%. In addition to exports, the drought has indirectly affected other aspects of Australia’s economy. Retail operations in rural areas and industries that provide services to agriculture, such as wholesale and transportation sectors, are negatively affected by drought.

However, it is worth noting that Australia’s economy is showing strong growth right after the drought. The 1982–1983 drought initially reduced GDP, but then increased by 1 to 1.5%. The 1991–95 drought caused GDP to fall 0.5–0.75% in 1991–92 and 1994–95 but eventually rose 0.75%.

 

4. Interest Rate Difference

 

Professional traders in the Australian dollar are watching the difference between interest rates in Australia and short-term interest rates in other developed countries. This is because the premium of Australian dollar short-term bonds can be determined to what extent they are higher or vice versa than short-term bonds. These differences can be a good indicator of potential changes in currency value.

Traders use this difference to indicate potential currency movements because investors are always looking for high-yield assets. This is especially important for carry-traders who want to enter or liquidate their positions depending on the interest rate gap between global bonds.

 

Australia’s Important Economic Indicators

 

 

1. Gross Domestic Product

 

Gross domestic product is the sum of the market value of all goods and services generated in Australia. GDP is calculated by households, businesses, governments, and net foreign purchases (export-income). The GDP deflator is used to convert the total output measured at the current price to the base year’s fixed-dollar GDP. This indicator is used to determine the Australian business cycle’s current location, where high growth rates are often interpreted as inflation, and low or negative growth suggests economic recession or sluggish economic growth.

 

2. Consumer Price Index

 

The Consumer Price Index CPI measures changes in the prices of goods and service baskets every quarter, which account for a high percentage of expenditures by the CPI population sample group (such as large urban households). The basket includes a wide range of goods and services, including food, housing, education, transport, and health. CPI is an important indicator because it is determined based on this index, a measure of inflation.

 

3. Balance of Goods and Services

 

The index is a measure of Australia’s international trade in goods and services based on its balance of payments. The import and export of general goods are mostly derived from international trade statistics based on Australian tax records. The current account is the trade balance plus the service balance.

 

4. Personal Consumption

 

 This includes purchasing durable goods as well as non-durable goods. However, it does not include expenditure on housing purchases and capital expenditure on private entities. It is important to watch because personal consumption can drive the recovery of the Australian economy.

 

5. Producer Price Index

 

The Production Price Index PPI is an index group that measures the average change in domestic producers’ sales prices. The PPI tracks price changes in almost all commodity-producing industries in the domestic economy, including agriculture, electronics, natural gas, forestry, fishing, manufacturing, and mining.

The foreign exchange market focuses on how the seasonally adjusted PPI and PPI indexes have changed from monthly, quarterly, semi-annual, and year-on-year. Australia’s PPI is published quarterly.

Overview of Japanese Yen

Japan is the world’s third-largest economy after the United States and the second-largest economy as a single country. Japan is also the world’s largest exporter and has more than $500 billion in exports every year.

Manufacturing, electronics, and automobiles are critical drivers of the economy, with production and exports reaching 20 per cent of GDP. Despite Japan’s severe structural flaws, it has maintained a trade surplus, creating demand for the Japanese yen.

Also, Japan is one of the largest importers of raw materials to produce goods. In both import and export, Japan’s most important trading partners are the United States and China.

Japanese Asset Bubble

 

To understand the Japanese economy, we first need to determine what caused Japan’s asset bubble and burst. In the 1980s, Japan’s financial market was one of the most attractive international investors in Asia. Japan had the most advanced capital markets in Asia, and its banking system was considered one of the most powerful countries in the world.

At that time, Japan had high economic growth and zero inflation. This resulted in rapid growth and credit expansion due to rising asset prices, which led to a bubble in asset prices. Then between 1990 and 1997, asset prices fell, causing the asset bubble to collapse. During this period, asset prices fell by more than $10 trillion, of which 65 per cent fell, equivalent to Japan’s two-year domestic production.

The drop in asset prices triggered the Japanese financial crisis. The financial crisis began in the early 1990s and reached its peak in 1997 when many financial institutions went bankrupt. At the height of the asset bubble in the 1980s, many banks and financial institutions expanded their loans from builders and real estate developers on land as collateral.

However, when the asset bubble collapsed, many real estate developers went bankrupt, forcing financial institutions to embrace bad loans, with collateral falling by 60 to 80 per cent from the initial loan. With the influence of substantial bad debts and corporate loans from Japanese financial institutions, this crisis has dramatically affected the Japanese economy and the global economy. Huge bad loans, a plunge in stock prices and a collapse in the real estate sector seriously damaged Japan’s economy for nearly two decades.

In addition to the financial crisis, Japan’s public debt is more than 140 per cent of GDP, the highest among advanced countries. Japan had suffered a severe economic slowdown for more than a decade due to worsening fiscal conditions and rising public debt.

Japan is still in a liquidity crisis due to the high debt burden, and the financial sector relies heavily on government relief measures. As a result, the Japanese yen is highly sensitive to government statements, implementing relief measures and other rumours about potential changes in the currency’s fiscal policy and political situations.

 

Bank of Japan Determines Monetary Policy

 

The Bank of Japan(BOJ) is an organisation that determines Japan’s crucial monetary policy. In 1998, the Japanese government granted the Bank of Japan to complete control of monetary policy and independence from the Finance Ministry. Despite being the government’s lower authority, the Finance Ministry is still in charge of exchange rate policies. The Bank of Japan conducts foreign exchange transactions in Japan with official responsibility under the Ministry of Finance’s control.

The monetary policy meeting will be held twice a month with briefings, and a press conference will be held immediately after the meeting. The Bank of Japan publishes monthly reports and monthly economic reports issued by the Policy Board. As the Japanese government continues to try new plans to boost the economy, these reports are essential to identify changes in the Bank of Japan’s sentiments and new monetary or fiscal policy signals.

The Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan are critical organisations that can lead to currency movements. It is essential to watch the finance ministry officials’ statements because they are in charge of intervention in the exchange rate. Since Japan is an export-oriented country, the government prefers to weaken the yen.

Therefore, if the Japanese yen rises rapidly against the dollar, the Bank of Japan and its Finance Ministry members will express concern about the Japanese yen’s current movement, and remarks are also a variable factor that drives the market. But, if the remarks end up only with actionless verbal intervention, the market will become immune to them.

There are cases in which the Finance Ministry and the Bank of Japan have intervened in the currency market to adjust Japan’s exchange rate. Therefore, we cannot ignore their remarks completely. The most commonly used tool for the Bank of Japan to control monetary policy is open market manipulation.

 

Open Market Manipulation

 

These activities focus on controlling unsecured overnight call rates. For some time, the Bank of Japan has maintained a zero interest rate. This means that the Bank of Japan can no longer cut interest rates to boost growth, consumption or liquidity. Therefore, the Bank of Japan is controlling liquidity through open market manipulation to maintain zero interest rates.

BOJ adjusts liquidity by buying or selling short-term bonds, repos or Japanese government bonds. A repo transaction is a transaction in which a borrower sells securities to a borrower after agreeing to resell the same number of securities as the same stock on a later designated date. This structure is similar to a bond-backed loan in which the borrower pays interest to the borrower. Repo deals have very short maturities from one day to a few weeks.

In terms of fiscal policy, the Bank of Japan has considered several ways to deal with bad debts. This includes targets for inflation, nationalisation of some private banks, readjustment of bad bank debts and discount sales. There was no policy decision, but the government is actively considering many other alternatives.

 

The Main Characteristics of the Japanese yen

 

1. Substitute for Measuring Asia’s Strength.

 

Japan is considered a substitute for measuring the overall strength of the Asian market because it has the highest GDP in Asia. Japan, which has the most developed capital market in Asia, was once a great investment destination for investors who wanted to invest in Asia. Japan also has significant trade exchanges with other Asian countries. As a result, economic and political instability in Japan has many ripple effects on other Asian countries.

Of course, the aftermath is not one-sided. Economic and political issues in other Asian countries also significantly impact the Japanese economy and the Japanese yen. For example, Japan, the G7 country, has strong ties with North Korea, and political instability in North Korea poses a massive risk to Japan and the yen.

 

2. Implementation of Bank of Japan intervention

 

Japan is a very political country with close ties with government officials and large private institutions, so Japan’s Finance Ministry is mindful of large private institutions trying to stop the yen from strengthening.

The Bank of Japan is an active intervention participant, harmonising with market movements and other participants. The Bank of Japan is likely to intervene when it regularly receives loan information from banks on prominent hedge fund positions and holds positions different from the market to generate speculative profits from speculators. 

 

2. Japanese Yen’s Movement is Time-Sensitive.

 

Speculators buy yen to earn profit from the Japanese yen’s rise in anticipation of increased demand for yen purchases from home-country transfers at the end of the fiscal year (31 March). As a result, after the fiscal year, the Japanese yen tends to decline due to its liquidation by speculators.

Except for the fiscal year, the time element is also a significant consideration daily. Unlike traders in London and New York, who usually have lunch at trading desks, Japanese traders have an hour lunch break from 10 p.m. to 11 p.m., New York time. Therefore, due to the market’s lack of liquidity, volatility may increase during lunchtime in Japan.

Also, the Japanese yen tends to move in an orderly manner in the Japanese and London markets unless important announcements, remarks by government officials, or economic indicators are surprising. However, in the New York market, the Japanese yen’s volatility increases as U.S. traders actively trade dollars and yen positions.

 

3. Pay Attention to Bank Stocks.

 

Participants in the foreign exchange market need to observe the banking sector’s shares closely, as the core of the Japanese economic crisis stems from the bad debt of Japanese banks.

Banks’ default threats, poor performance, or additional occurrences of bad loans suggest that the economy has severe problems. Therefore, the movement of bank stocks leads to the direction of the Japanese yen.

 

4. Carry Trade Effect

 

Carrie Trading has recently become popular as investors actively seek high-yield assets. Since Japan has the lowest interest rate among advanced countries, the Japanese yen is mainly a currency sold or borrowed from Carry Trading.

The most popular carry trade calls include GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY and USD/JPY. Carry traders buy high-yield currencies and sell the Japanese yen.

Therefore, the liquidation of the carry trade due to the narrower spread causes the Japanese yen to rise. Its liquidation involves selling other currencies and buying the Japanese yen.

 

 

Important Economic Indicators of Japan

 

The following are important economic indicators for the Japanese yen. It is essential to focus on the manufacturing sector figures because Japan is a manufacturing-oriented country.

 

1. Gross Domestic Product

 

Gross Domestic Product is calculated quarterly and annually as the sum of the market value of all goods and services generated in Japan. GDP is calculated, including expenditure by households, businesses, governments, and net foreign purchases (export-income).

The GDP deflator is converted to fixed dollar GDP for the base year of gross output measured at the current price. This indicator is used to determine the Japanese business cycle’s current location, and reserves are of paramount importance to participants in the foreign exchange market.

 

2. A Single-Column Survey

 

This survey is a short-term economic survey conducted by Japanese companies four times a year. It surveys more than 9,000 companies classified as four major (major, large, medium and small enterprises). Foreign exchange market participants widely observe it as it provides an overall business environment in Japan.

 

3. An International Balance of Payments

 

 

The balance of payments provides investors with information about Japan’s international economic transactions, including goods, services, investment income, and capital flows.

The current account balance of the Bank of Japan is used as a helpful measure for determining international trade levels and is announced monthly and semi-annual.

 

4. Employment

 

Employment figures are reported every month by the Japanese Health, Labor and Welfare Administration. Employment indicators measure Japan’s employment-population and unemployment rate, calculated by statistical surveys of the current working population. 

 

5. Industrial Production Index

 

The industrial production index measures the production trends of Japanese manufacturing and utility companies. It is consist of the total quantity of produced goods for domestic sales and overseas. Meanwhile, the index does not include agriculture, construction, transportation, telecommunications, trade, finance, and service industries.

Industrial production is calculated by weights of the relative importance of each element over some time. Investors can use the industrial production index and quantity of inventory accumulation as a piece of good information on the economic status of Japan.

瑞士法郎（CHF）概述 The Overview of Swiss francs (CHF)

Switzerland has a prosperous economy, the highest GDP per person, and higher stability than many other economies. Its wealth depends primarily on technology, tourism and finance in manufacturing.

瑞士經濟繁榮，人均國內生產總值最高，穩定性比其他許多國家更高。其財富主要取決於製造業的技術，旅遊業和金融。

With its history of chemical, pharmaceutical, industrial, mechanical, instruments along with clocks, and investor confidentiality, Switzerland and the Swiss currency gained a reputation as safe-havens, making it the world’s largest offshore asset destination.

憑藉其化學，製藥，工業，機械，儀器以及鐘錶的歷史悠久，以及投資者的機密性，瑞士和瑞士貨幣被譽為避險資產，使其成為全球最大的離岸資產目的地。

Switzerland has more than $2 trillion in offshore assets and is estimated to account for more than 35% of the world’s private asset management business. As a result, the highly developed large-scale financial and insurance industries have developed, with more than 50% of Switzerland’s population engaged, accounting for more than 70% of total GDP.

瑞士擁有超過2萬億美元的離岸資產，估計佔全球私人資產管理業務的35％以上。結果，高度發達的大型金融和保險業得以發展，瑞士超過50％的人口從事該行業，佔GDP的70％以上。

Switzerland’s financial industry has flourished with its status as a haven and strict customer confidentiality. Therefore, when there is a strong global tendency to hedge, the inflow of funds leads the economy, and when the tendency to take risks increases, trade leads the economy.

瑞士的金融業蓬勃發展，擁有避風港和嚴格的客戶機密性。因此，當全球存在強烈的對沖趨勢時，資金的流入將引導經濟，而當承擔風險的趨勢增加時，貿易將引導經濟。

 

瑞士國家銀行決定貨幣政策 Swiss National Bank to Determine Monetary Policy

 

The Swiss National Bank of Switzerland (SNB) is an independent central bank that determines Switzerland’s monetary policy. The committee consists of a chairperson, a vice-chairperson, and other members of the SNB Executive Committee. All decisions are made based on an agreed-upon vote because of the number of people involved.

瑞士瑞士國家銀行（SNB）是決定瑞士貨幣政策的獨立中央銀行。該委員會由SNB執行委員會的主席，副主席和其他成員組成。由於所涉及的人數眾多，所有決定都是基於經過商定的投票做出的。

The Commission reviews monetary policy at least once every quarter, but monetary policy can be determined and published at any time. Unlike most central banks, the SNB does not set an official interest rate target. Instead, it has set a target range for the three-month Swiss Ribo rate.

委員會至少每季度至少審查一次貨幣政策，但是可以隨時確定和公佈貨幣政策。與大多數央行不同，瑞士央行沒有設定官方的利率目標。取而代之的是，它為三個月的瑞士法郎匯率設定了目標範圍。

The SNB set its target at the currency target of M3 but shifted to an annual inflation rate of 2%  in December 1999. The monetary target is still an important indicator, which provides information about long-term inflation, so the central bank is monitoring it intensively.  The central bank has made it clear that SNB will implement monetary tightening policies if mid-term inflation exceeds 2%. If deflation concerns are raised, the central bank will ease monetary policy.

瑞士央行將其目標設定為M3的貨幣目標，但在1999年12月轉變為2％的年度通貨膨脹率。貨幣目標仍然是一個重要指標，可提供有關長期通貨膨脹的信息，因此央行將對其進行監控密集地。央行已明確表示，如果中期通脹率超過2％，瑞士央行將實施貨幣緊縮政策。如果出現通縮擔憂，央行將放寬貨幣政策。

SNB also closely monitors the exchange rate. The excessive strength of the Swiss franc could cause an inflationary environment. Judging from the fact that the global risk-averse trend will lead to a significant increase in capital flows to Switzerland, which could trigger a strong Swiss franc.

瑞士央行還密切監控匯率。瑞士法郎過高可能會導致通貨膨脹。從全球規避風險的趨勢將導致流入瑞士的資本大量增加這一事實來看，這可能會觸發強勁的瑞士法郎。

Eventually, if this situation arrives, it will intervene without delay in the market through liquidity control to prevent the exchange rate from strengthening. Finally, SNB intervenes in the Swiss franc market through various ways such as verbal intervention, currency supply, and exchange rate.

最終，如果這種情況到來，它將通過流動性控制立即乾預市場，以防止匯率升值。最後，瑞士央行通過各種方式（例如口頭乾預，貨幣供應和匯率）干預瑞士法郎市場。

 

中央銀行政策工具 Central Bank Policy Instruments

 

瑞士央行用於執行貨幣政策的最常見手段如下：

The most common means of the policy used by SNB to implement monetary policy are as followings:

 

1. 目標利率範圍 Target Interest Rate Range

 

The SNB implements monetary policy by setting a target range of three-month interest rates (Swiss Ribo Rates). This range is usually set to a 100BP spread difference and is modified at least once every quarter. This rate is used as a target because it is the most critical market interest rate for investment in Swiss francs. Modifying this target range involves a solid explanation of changes in the economic environment.

瑞士央行通過設定三個月利率（瑞士瑞波利率）的目標範圍來實施貨幣政策。此範圍通常設置為100BP的傳播差異，並且每季度至少修改一次。該利率被用作目標，因為它是投資瑞士法郎的最關鍵的市場利率。修改此目標範圍需要對經濟環境的變化做出紮實的解釋。

 

2.  公開市場操縱 Open Market Manipulation

 

Repo trading is SNB’s primary monetary policy instrument. A repo trading in which the borrower sells the securities to the borrower after agreeing to reversely trade the same number of securities as the same stock on a later designated date. This structure is similar to securities-backed loans in which borrowers now pay interest to borrowers.

回購交易是瑞士央行的主要貨幣政策工具。回購交易，在此交易中，借款人同意在以後的指定日期反向交易與相同股票相同數量的證券，然後再將其出售給借款人。這種結構類似於證券支持的貸款，在這種結構中，借款人現在向借款人支付利息。

A repo deal has a very short maturity, from one day to a few weeks. Suppose the three-month revolving rate rises above the target set by the SNB. In that case, the central bank will provide additional liquidity to commercial banks at low-interest rates through repo trading. In other words, it supplies money to the market in the form of buying bonds from commercial banks and paying cash. On the contrary, SNB can increase the repo rate to reduce liquidity or induce a three-month rise in the ribo rate.

回購交易的期限很短，從一天到幾週。假設三個月的周轉率高於瑞士央行設定的目標。在這種情況下，中央銀行將通過回購交易以低利率向商業銀行提供額外的流動性。換句話說，它以從商業銀行購買債券並支付現金的形式向市場提供資金。相反，瑞士央行可以提高回購利率以減少流動性或導致核糖匯率三個月上升。

The SNB issues quarterly self-reports that reviewed a detailed assessment of current economic conditions and monetary policy. The monthly self-report includes a brief commentary on the economic situation. These reports include information on changes in SNB’s assessment of the current domestic economic situation, which needs to be looked at.

瑞士央行發布季度自我報告，審查了對當前經濟狀況和貨幣政策的詳細評估。每月的自我報告包括對經濟狀況的簡短評論。這些報告包括有關瑞士央行對當前國內經濟形勢的評估變化的信息，需要加以研究。

 

瑞士法郎的主要特徵 Key characteristics of Swiss Francs

 

 

1. 作為避風港的地位。 Status as a Haven.

 

This is probably a unique characteristic of the Swiss franc. Switzerland’s safety shelter status and the secrecy of the banking system are always emphasised because they are the most important advantages of the Swiss financial industry. Swiss francs usually move according to overseas events rather than domestic economic conditions.

這可能是瑞士法郎的獨特特徵。始終強調瑞士的安全庇護地位和銀行系統的保密性，因為它們是瑞士金融業的最重要優勢。瑞士法郎通常根據海外事件而不是國內經濟狀況波動。

This is because the Swiss franc is considered the world’s best safe currency due to its political neutrality. Investors think of the stability of investment assets before the return on investment when global instability or uncertainty is highlighted. In this situation, if funds flow into Switzerland, the Swiss franc will be substantial regardless of the economic status in Switzerland.

這是因為瑞士法郎由於其政治中立性而被視為世界上最安全的貨幣。當突出全球不穩定或不確定性時，投資者會在投資回報之前考慮投資資產的穩定性。在這種情況下，如果資金流入瑞士，則無論瑞士的經濟狀況如何，瑞士法郎都將是可觀的。

 

2. 瑞士法郎與黃金高度相關。Swiss Francs are Highly Correlated with Gold.

 

Switzerland is officially the world’s fourth-largest gold holder. The Swiss Constitution stipulates that 40% of monetary reserves should be held in gold. Despite the disappearance of the regulation, the relationship between gold and Swiss francs is deeply in the minds of Swiss investors.

瑞士正式是世界第四大黃金持有國。瑞士憲法規定，應將40％的貨幣儲備以黃金持有。儘管該法規不復存在，但黃金和瑞士法郎之間的關係仍深深地存在於瑞士投資者的腦海中。

As a result, the Swiss franc correlates nearly 80% with gold. When gold prices rise, Swiss francs are also likely to increase. Gold and Swiss francs are also vital in times of heightened global economy and geopolitical uncertainty, as gold is considered the surest haven to replace the currency.

結果，瑞士法郎與黃金的比例接近80％。當金價上漲時，瑞士法郎也可能會上漲。在全球經濟增長和地緣政治不確定性時期，黃金和瑞士法郎也至關重要，因為人們認為黃金是取代該貨幣的最可靠避風港。

 

3. 產生貿易效應 Carry Trade Effect

 

 

The phenomenon of investors’ preference for high-yield assets has recently become commonplace, and the size has soared. In other words, carry trading is buying or operating low-interest currency assets by selling or borrowing low-interest currencies.

投資者偏愛高收益資產的現象最近已變得司空見慣，規模激增。換句話說，套利交易是通過出售或借入低息貨幣來購買或操作低息貨幣資產。

Because the interest rate of Swiss francs is the lowest among advanced currencies, the currency borrowed or sold by carry trading in Swiss francs. This will result in buying a high-interest currency and selling  Swiss francs, a low-interest currency.

由於瑞士法郎的利率是先進貨幣中最低的，因此通過套利交易借入或出售的貨幣為瑞士法郎。這將導致購買高利率貨幣並出售瑞士法郎（低利率貨幣）。

 

4. 跟踪歐元瑞士期貨和外國利率期貨之間的價格差。 Follows Price Difference Between Euro Swiss Futures and Foreign Interest Rate Futures.

 

Professional Swiss traders are keeping an eye on the price gap between the three-month Euro-Swiss futures and the Euro-dollar futures. This difference is a good indicator of potential currency flows because it can determine to what extent the premium of U.S. bonds is higher than or vice versa than that of Swiss bond assets in Switzerland.

專業的瑞士交易員正在密切關註三個月的歐元－瑞士期貨和歐元－美元期貨之間的價格差距。這種差異很好地表明了潛在的​​貨幣流動，因為它可以確定美國債券的溢價在多大程度上高於瑞士在瑞士的債券資產的溢價，反之亦然。

Investors are always pursuing high-yield assets, so this difference shows traders the potential currency movements. This is especially important for carry-traders who want to enter or liquidate transactions by taking advantage of the interest rate gap between global bonds.

投資者一直在追求高收益資產，因此這種差異向交易者展示了潛在的貨幣走勢。對於想利用全球債券之間的利率差距進行交易或清算交易的利差交易者而言，這一點尤其重要。

 

 

5. 銀行法規的潛在變化 Potential Changes in Bank Regulations

 

Over the past few years, European Union countries have put considerable pressure on Switzerland to ease secrecy in the banking system and increase transparency in customer accounts. The EU has continued to press Switzerland as part of its aggressive efforts to investigate tax evaders in the EU, which will be of great interest in the future.

在過去的幾年中，歐盟國家對瑞士施加了相當大的壓力，要求其放寬銀行體系的保密性並提高客戶賬戶的透明度。歐盟繼續向瑞士施加壓力，這是其為調查歐盟逃稅行為而做出的積極努力的一部分，這將在未來引起極大的興趣。

This is not an easy decision for Switzerland. The secrecy of customer accounts was a key strength of the Swiss banking system. The EU has threatened to impose severe sanctions if Switzerland fails to comply with the proposal. Negotiations are currently underway between related government agencies to find a more appropriate solution. This change in Swiss financial regulations will affect the Swiss franc as well as the Swiss economy.對於瑞士來說，這不是一個容易的決定。客戶賬戶的保密性是瑞士銀行系統的主要優勢。歐盟威脅說，如果瑞士不遵守該提議，將實行嚴厲制裁。相關政府機構之間正在進行談判，以尋求更合適的解決方案。瑞士金融法規的這一變化將影響瑞士法郎以及瑞士經濟。

 

6. 併購 M&A

 

The primary industries of Switzerland are banking and finance. Mergers and acquisitions in this industry are widespread throughout the industry, resulting in a significant impact on the Swiss franc.

瑞士的主要產業是銀行和金融。該行業中的併購在整個行業中都很普遍，對瑞士法郎產生了重大影響。

If a foreign company acquires a Swiss bank or insurance company, they will have to buy Swiss francs and sell their currency, while if a Swiss bank acquires a foreign company, they will have to sell Swiss francs and buy foreign currency. Either way, Swiss franc traders should pay close attention to M&A announcements related to Swiss companies.

如果一家外國公司收購了一家瑞士銀行或保險公司，則他們將不得不購買瑞士法郎並出售其貨幣，而如果一家瑞士銀行收購了一家外國公司，則將不得不出售瑞士法郎併購買外匯。無論哪種方式，瑞士法郎交易者都應密切注意與瑞士公司有關的併購公告。

 

7. 交易動向，交叉呼叫特徵。Trading Movement, Cross-Call Characteristics.

 

EUR/CHF is the most actively traded currency pair for traders who prefer to trade CHF. USD/CHF has relatively few transactions due to its lack of liquidity and high volatility. However, day traders tend to prefer USD/CHF to EUR/CHF because of its volatility.

對於喜歡交易瑞郎的交易者來說，歐元/瑞郎是交易最活躍的貨幣對。由於缺乏流動性和高波動性，美元兌瑞郎的交易相對較少。然而，由於其波動性，日間交易者傾向於美元/瑞郎而不是歐元/瑞郎。

In fact, USD/CHF is only a synthetic currency derived from EUR/USD and EUR/CHF. Market makers and professional traders often use these currency pairs as a leading index to make USD/CHF trading. In theory, the USD/CHF exchange rate is the same as the EUR/CHF divided by EUR/USD.

實際上，USD / CHF只是衍生自EUR / USD和EUR / CHF的合成貨幣。做市商和專業交易員經常使用這些貨幣對作為進行美元/瑞郎交易的領先指數。理論上，美元/瑞士法郎匯率與歐元/瑞士法郎除以歐元/美元相同。

However, its own USD/CHF transactions will only become active during the global hedging trend, such as the Iraq War and the September 11 terrorist attacks. Market participants quickly take advantage of these fine-grained differences in exchange rates to make profits.

但是，其自身的美元/瑞士法郎交易只會在全球對沖趨勢（例如伊拉克戰爭和9月11日恐怖襲擊）中變得活躍。市場參與者迅速利用匯率的這些細微差異來獲利。

 

Important economic indicators in Switzerland

 

1. KoF (Swiss Economic Research Institute) Leading Index

 

The Swiss Economic Research Institute publishes the KoF’s leading economic index. It is commonly used as a measure of the future health of the Swiss economy.

 

 

2. Consumer price index

 

 

The Consumer Price Index is calculated every month based on retail prices paid in Switzerland. Products selected under general international practice are divided by consumption concepts.

The product basket does not include previous expenditures such as direct taxes, social security, and medical insurance and is an essential measure of inflation.

 

3. Gross Domestic Product

 

GDP is the sum of all goods and services produced and consumed in Switzerland. GDP is calculated, including households, businesses, governments, and net foreign purchases (export-income). 

These indicators are used to determine the current location of the Swiss business cycle. For example, high growth rates are often considered inflation, and low growth suggests a recession or sluggish economic situation.

 

4. Balance of payments

 

The balance of payments is a systematic breakdown of all economic transactions conducted with other countries. The current account is the trade balance plus the service balance.

Switzerland has always maintained a sound current account, so the international balance of payments is an essential indicator for Swiss franc traders. Favourable or unfavourable changes in the current account result in significant changes in the exchange rate.

 

5. Production Index (Industrial Production)

 

The Industrial Index is a measure of changes in quarterly industrial output (or actual production by producers).

 

6. Retail Sales

 

Retail sales in Switzerland are announced every month after 40 days of the month. This is an important indicator of consumer spending and is not seasonally adjusted.

 

英鎊概述（GBP）

The Overview of British pounds (GBP)

 

The UK, the world’s fourth-largest economy with the most efficient central bank globally, has long benefited from high growth, low unemployment, increased output, and a recovery in consumption.英國是全球第四大經濟體，中央銀行是全球銀行中效率最高的。由於高成長率、低失業率、產出增加及消費復甦，長期以來國家經濟一直處在優勢的狀態。 

Britain is a service-oriented country, with the manufacturing sector accounting for less GDP and now accounting for one-fifth of its production. Meanwhile, It has one of the most advanced capital market systems globally, and the financial industry is the most significant contributor to the UK’s GDP.

英國是一個服務為導向的國家，其中製造業佔GDP的比重較小，目前只佔了其生產的五分之一。同時，擁有全球最先進的資本市場體系之一，金融業是英國GDP最重要的貢獻者。

Although the service industry accounts for most of the GDP, we should not overlook that Britain is one of the largest natural gas producers and exporters in the EU. Energy production accounts for 10 per cent of the UK’s GDP, the highest among developed countries. Rising energy prices, such as oil prices, are critical because they bring significant British oil exporters returns.

儘管服務業佔英國GDP的絕大部分，但是我們不能忽視英國是歐盟最大的天然氣生產國及出口國之一。能源生產佔英國GDP的10％，是已開發國家中最高的。能源價格上漲（例如石油價格）時非常重要，因為這為英國石油出口商帶來了可觀的利潤。

Overall, the UK is a net importer with a continuing trade deficit. The largest trading partner is the EU, and bilateral trade accounts for more than 50% of the UK’s total imports and exports. As a single country, the United States is Britain’s largest trading partner.整體而言，英國是一個淨進口國，貿易逆差持續地存在。最大的貿易夥伴是歐盟，雙邊貿易占英國進出口總額的50％以上。作為一個國家，美國是英國最大的貿易夥伴。 

 

英國央行決定貨幣政策 BOE Determines Monetary Policy

The nine-member Monetary Policy Committee consists of the president, two vice presidents, two BOE directors, and four outside experts, determining the monetary policy. The Commission approved the independence of monetary policy operations in 1997.

貨幣政策委員會由九名成員組成，當中包含總統、兩名副總統、兩名英國央行董事和四名外部專家，負責制定貨幣政策。委員會於1997年批准了貨幣政策業務的獨立性。

Despite this independence, BOE’s monetary policy focuses on achieving inflation targets by the ][. BOE has the authority to adjust interest rates within its permissible range to accomplish this goal. The Monetary Policy Committee shall determine changes in monetary policy, including changes in interest rates, through monthly meetings and announce the details thereof.

儘管具有這種獨立性，英國央行的貨幣政策著重於達成財政部長的通貨膨脹目標。英國央行有權在允許範圍內調整利率來實現這一目標。貨幣政策委員會應通過每月一次的會議來決定貨幣政策的變化，包括利率的變化，並宣布其細節。

The Monetary Policy Committee states all meetings, along with a quarterly inflation report describing the Monetary Policy Committee’s outlook on growth, inflation and legitimacy of policy changes over the next two years.

貨幣政策委員會說明所有會議，以及季度通脹報告，並敘述貨幣政策委員會對未來兩年內的經濟成長，通脹和政策變化和理性的前景。

Other quarterly publications provide information on analysing the past monetary policy movements, the international economic environment, and the impact on the UK economy. All reports include details of the Monetary Policy Committee’s policies and future policy movements.

其他季度刊物則提供了有關分析過去的貨幣政策走勢、國際經濟環境以及對英國經濟影響的資訊。所有報告均包含貨幣政策委員會政策和未來政策動向的詳細訊息。

 

貨幣政策委員會和英格蘭銀行使用的主要政策手段如下：The primary means of the policy used by the Monetary Policy Committee and the Bank of England are as follows:

1.銀行回購利率  Bank Repo Rate

This is the primary interest rate used to implement monetary policy that meets the treasury’s inflation target. This interest rate is set for banking operations in markets such as short-term loans from banks.

這是用於實施貨幣政策的主要利率，以符合國家債券抗通脹的目標。該利率是針對市場中銀行業務（例如，銀行的短期貸款）設置的。

Change in interest rates affects interest rates charged by commercial banks for depositors and borrowers. This will affect economic spending and production, and consequently, costs and prices—the rise in interest rates to lower inflation will stimulate growth and expand the economy.

利率的變化會影響商業銀行對存款人和借款人收取的利率。這將影響經濟的支出和生產，進而影響成本和價格。利率上升可以降低通貨膨脹，刺激成長並擴充經濟。

 

2.公開市場操作Open Market Manipulation

Open market manipulation is implemented by adjusting the repo as mentioned above rates and ensuring adequate liquidity in the market and continuous stability in the banking system.

公開市場操作是通過調整上述的回購利率，並確保市場上有足夠的流動性和銀行體系的持續穩定來實現的。

This reflects the Bank of England’s three main objectives: maintaining the value of the currency, maintaining the strength of the financial system and securing the efficiency of UK financial services.

這反映了英格蘭銀行的三個主要目標：保持貨幣價值，保持金融體系的實力以及確保英國金融服務的效率。

BOE implements open market manipulation that controls liquidity by buying or selling short-term bonds every day. If this is not enough to manage liquidity, BOE can perform additional Overnight operations.

英國央行實施公開市場操作，通過每天買賣短期債券來控制流動性。如果這無法管理流動性，英國央行可以執行其他的隔夜操作。

英磅的主要特徵 The Main Characteristics of the Pound

1. 英鎊/美元流動性強。GBP/USD is highly fluid.

GBP/USD is one of the most volatile pairs of currencies, with the British pound accounting for 6% of all pound-related foreign exchange transactions in the world, the benchmark or relative currency. It is also one of the four most volatile currency pairs (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF) in the foreign exchange market.

英鎊/美元是最不穩定的貨幣對之一，基準貨幣或相對貨幣中，英鎊佔全球所有與英鎊相關外匯交易的6％。它也是外匯市場上四個波動最大的貨幣對之一（歐元/美元，英鎊/美元，美元/日元和美元/瑞士法郎）。

One of the reasons for the high liquidity of GBP/USD is the highly developed UK capital market. Many foreign investors who sought investment opportunities outside the United States have invested money in the United Kingdom. Foreigners must sell their currency and buy British pounds for British investment.

英鎊/美元高流動性的原因之一是英國資本市場非常的發達。許多在美國境外尋求投資機會的外國投資者都在英國投資。外國人需要出售其貨幣來購買英鎊，以進行在英國投資。

2. 有很多投機者投資英鎊。 GBP has many speculators.

The British pound was one of the currencies with the highest interest rates among developed countries. Interest rates in Australia and New Zealand are higher, but their financial markets are not as advanced as in the UK.

英鎊是已開發國家中，利率最高的貨幣之一。澳洲和紐西蘭的利率也很高，但它們的金融市場不如英國先進。

As a result, many investors who already have positions or are interested in new carry trading positions have sold currencies such as the U.S. Dollar, Japanese Yen, and Swiss Francs and purchased GBP as relative currency.

所以，許多已經擁有頭寸或對新利差交易頭寸感興趣的投資者，出售了美元、日元和瑞士法郎等貨幣，來購買英鎊作為相對貨幣。

Carry trading is to sell or borrow low-interest currencies to invest in high-interest currency assets or manage loans. In recent years, demand for pounds has increased as carry trade has become more common. However, if the interest rate difference between the pound and other currencies decreases, the liquidation of the carry trade will increase the volatility of the pound.

利差交易是指出售或借入低息貨幣來投資高息貨幣資產或管理貸款。近年來，隨著套利交易變得越來越普遍，對英鎊的需求也增加了。但是，如果英鎊與其他貨幣之間的利率差異減小，套利交易的清算將增加英鎊的波動性。

3. 英國和外國政府債券的利率差異。 Difference in interest rates between British and foreign government bonds.

The difference in interest rates between UK & US government bonds (leading indicators of GBP/USD) and UK & German government bonds (leading indicators of EUR/GBP) are indicators that participants in the forex market consider.

英國和美國政府債券（英鎊/美元的領先指標）與英國和德國政府債券（歐元/ 英鎊的領先指標）之間的利率差異是外匯市場參與者考慮的指標。

This difference in interest rates can determine to what extent the premium of UK bonds is higher than or vice versa for US and European bonds. German bonds are used as barometers of European interest rates. These differences offer a signal of potential capital flows or currency movements for traders. Currently, the British currency has the same credit stability as the United States.

利率的這種差異可以確定英國債券的溢價高於或與美國和歐洲債券的溢價相同。德國債券做為歐洲利率的晴雨表，這些差異為交易者提供了潛在資本的流動或貨幣變動的訊號。目前，英國貨幣和美金有相同的信用穩定性。

4. 歐元兌英鎊的期貨提供了利率變動的跡象。Euro-Pound futures provide a sign of interest rate movement.

It is vital to keep an eye on the potential changes in interest rates as UK interest rates or bank repo rates are used as a significant policy means for monetary policy. Government officials’ remarks are becoming a way to capture changes in interest rate trends. It is also releasing the vote results by members of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England.

隨著英國利率及銀行回購利率被用作貨幣政策的重要手段，密切關注利率的潛在變化是非常重要的。政府官方的評論已成為掌握利率趨勢變化的一種方式，英格蘭銀行貨幣政策委員會成員也會發布投票結果。

Announcing the results of a committee member’s vote means that their opinions are not those of the Bank of England but personal. Therefore, it is necessary to look for other signals to predict potential changes in bank interest rates.

宣布委員會成員投票的結果意味著這並非英格蘭銀行的意見，而是個人的。因此，有必要尋找其他訊號來預測銀行利率的潛在變化。

The three-month euro futures reflect market expectations for the next three months of the euro. These indicators help predict changes in UK interest rates and ultimately affect GBP/USD’s movement.

三個月中的歐元期貨反映了市場對歐元未來三個月的預期。這些指標有助於預測英國利率的變化，並最終影響英鎊/美元的走向。

5. 英國政客對於歐元的言論影響了歐元。British politicians’ remarks about the euro affect the euro.

Comments on the euro (especially those made by the prime minister or finance minister) or opinion polls impact the foreign exchange market.  A fall in interest rates would lead to the liquidation of the position of carry traders.

對歐元的評論（尤其是總理或財政大臣的評論）或民意調查都會影響外匯市場。利率下降將導致套利交易者頭寸的清算。

The British economy has now grown well under the supervision of monetary authorities. EMU is currently experiencing many challenges due to participating countries that do not meet the convergence criteria for EMU membership.

在金融管理局的監督下，英國現在的經濟發展良好。歐洲聯盟經濟暨貨幣聯盟目前正面臨許多挑戰，由於參與的國家無法達成聯盟中成員的共同標準。

For the ECB, a single monetary authority, to govern (19 countries, including the UK), the EMU must create a monetary policy that can coordinate all the affected countries’ economic situation.

對於歐洲央行，單一的貨幣管理機構（包括英國在內的19個國家），歐洲聯盟經濟暨貨幣聯盟必須制定能夠協調所有會員國家經濟狀況的貨幣政策。

 

6. 英鎊與能源價格有緊密的關聯。 GBP has a positive link to energy prices.

Britain has the largest energy companies in the world. Energy production accounts for about 10% of the UK GDP, and as a result, the UK pound correlates with energy prices. Many EU countries import crude oil from the UK, so if oil prices rise, they will eventually have to buy more pounds to finance their energy purchases. Rising oil prices will also boost profits for British energy exporters.

英國擁有世界上最大的能源公司，能源生產約佔英國GDP的10％。因此，英鎊與能源價格相關。許多歐盟國家從英國進口原油，如果油價上漲，它們不得不購買更多的英鎊作為能源購買的資金。油價上漲也將增加英國能源出口商的利潤。

7. 英鎊交叉貨幣 GBP Cross Call

The GBP/USD currency pair tends to be more sensitive to the U.S. economy. However, both currencies are interdependent. This means that the movement of EUR/GBP can permeate the movement of GBP/USD, and vice versa.

英鎊/美元貨幣對通常對美國經濟更容易受影響。兩種貨幣都是相互依賴的，這意味著歐元/英鎊的波動會影響到英鎊/美元的波動中，反之亦然。

The movement of GBP/USD can also affect EUR/GBP transactions. Thus, pound traders should consciously watch the trends of both pairs of currencies.

英鎊 / 美元的變動也會影響歐元/英鎊的交易。因此，英鎊交易者應觀察這兩對貨幣的走向。

The EUR/GBP exchange rate should be the same as dividing EUR/USD by GBP/USD. Market participants often engage in arbitrage using slight differences between exchange rates, so these differences disappear very quickly.

歐元/英鎊匯率應與歐元/ 美金除以英鎊/美金相同。市場參與者通常會使用匯率之間的細微差異進行套利，因此這些差異會很快消失。

 

英國重要的經濟指標 Important Economic Indicators in the UK

 

The following economic indicators are all important indicators of the United Kingdom. However, since the UK is a service-oriented economy, it is better to focus on figures, especially the service sector.

以下經濟指標都是英國的重要指標。但是，英國是一個服務業為導向的經濟體，因此最好著重於服務業中的數值。

 

1. 就業 Employment

England conducts the monthly survey. The survey aims to classify the workforce into three groups – employed, unemployed, and non-labour – and provide detailed data on them.

英國每月都會進行調查。主要將勞動力分為三類，就業、失業和非勞動力，並提供相關的詳細數據。

The survey data provide market participants with critical information about the labour market, such as the industry-specific employment movement and the unemployment rate of working hours.

調查的數據為市場參與者提供有關勞動力市場的重要訊息，例如特定行業的就業趨勢和失業率的走向。

2. 消費者物價指數 Retail Price Index

The retail price index RPI is an indicator of the price movement of the consumer goods basket. The traders watch RPI or RPI-X except for mortgage interest payments. The Treasury Department uses the RPI-X for price targets.

消費者物價指數是消費者一籃子商品價格變動的指標。除抵押利息支付外，交易者會關注消費者物價指數(RPI)或價格上限(RPI-X)。財政部將RPI-X最為價格目標。 

3. 國內生產總值 GDP

The quarterly report investigated by the Bureau of Statistics is the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK. GDP is calculated by adding net foreign purchases to household, business and government spending.

統計局調查的季度報告是英國生產的所有商品和服務的總價值。 GDP是​​通過將外國購買的淨額與家用、企業和政府支出相加得出的。

The GDP deflator is used to convert gross output measured at current prices to fixed-dollar GDP for the base year. High growth rates are often interpreted as inflation, and low (or negative) growth rates suggest economic recession or sluggish economic growth.

GDP平減指數用於以當前價格計算的總產值轉換為基準年固定美元的GDP。高成長率通常被解釋為通貨膨脹，而低（或負）成長率則表明經濟衰退或經濟成長緩慢。

 

4. 工業生產 Industrial Production

Industrial production, IP Index, measures production changes in the UK’s manufacturing, mining, quarrying, electricity and water supply industries. Industrial production surveys the physical quantity of products, not sales, and multiplies the price to produce. Because IP accounts for one-quarter of GDP, we can understand the current economic situation.

工業生產、工業生產指數計算英國製造業，礦業，採石業，電力和供水行業的生產變化。工業生產調查的是產品的實物數量，而不是銷售量，並乘以生產價格。因為工業生產量佔GDP的四分之一，所以我們可以藉此了解目前的經濟狀況。

 

5. 採購經理指數 Purchase Manager Index

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a monthly survey published by the British Purchaser Association, a weighted average of seasonal factors for production, new orders, inventory and employment items. Above 50 means the expansion of the competition, and below 50 means the contraction of the competition.

採購經理指數（PMI）是由英國採購者協會每月發布的調查報告，是生產，新訂單，庫存和就業項目的季節性因素的加權平均值。高於50表示競爭激烈，低於50表示競爭萎縮。

 

6. 英國房屋建築數量 The Number of UK Housing Construction

The number of housing construction projects is a survey of the number of residential building projects constructing. The housing market is an important indicator because it is a significant industry that sustains economic growth.

住宅建設項目數量是對住宅建築項目數量的調查。房市是一個重要的指標，因為它是維持經濟成長的重要行業。

 

歐元概述 The Overview of Euro (EUR)

 

The European Union developed as an institutional system for the construction of a unified Europe. The E.U. currently consists of Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Hungary, Slovakia, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Slovenia, Cyprus, Bulgaria, Romania, and Croatia (including the United Kingdom). Countries except Denmark, Sweden, the United Kingdom, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Romania, and Croatia use the Euro as their common currency.

歐洲聯盟發展為統一歐洲制度的體系。歐盟目前由奧地利，比利時，丹麥，芬蘭，法國，德國，希臘，愛爾蘭，義大利，盧森堡，荷蘭，葡萄牙，西班牙，瑞典，匈牙利，斯洛伐克，立陶宛，拉脫維亞，愛沙尼亞，斯洛文尼亞，塞普勒斯，保加利亞，羅馬尼亞和克羅地亞（包括英國）。除丹麥，瑞典，英國，捷克共和國，匈牙利，波蘭，立陶宛，保加利亞，羅馬尼亞和克羅地亞以外的其他國家/地區均使用歐元作為其共同貨幣。

The 18 countries that use the common currency by organising the European Monetary Union (EMU) and share the single monetary policy required by the European Central Bank (ECB). The EMU is the world’s second-largest economy with a highly developed bond market, stock market and futures market. EMU is becoming the second most attractive investment market for investors both inside and outside the Euro area.

18個國家通過組織歐洲貨幣聯盟（EMU）使用共同貨幣並由歐洲中央銀行（ECB）發布單一的貨幣政策。 EMU是世界第二大的經濟體，擁有高度發達的債券市場，股票市場和期貨市場。對於歐元內外的投資者，歐洲貨幣聯盟已成為第二大具吸引力的投資市場。

The Euro has taken its place, and more countries participate in the EMU. The importance of the euro as a reserve currency has increased at the same time, thereby increasing the inflow of capital into Europe. Euro’s demand is expected to continue to grow as foreign central banks are expected to increase their euro holdings to diversify their portfolio in the future.

歐元已取代大部份歐洲國家的貨幣，更多國家加入了歐洲貨幣聯盟。同時，歐元作為儲備貨幣的重要性也在增加，從而增加了資本向歐洲的流入。外國央行預計增加其持有的歐元來分散其投資組合，故歐元的需求將繼續地增長。

EMU is a trade-driven and capital flow-driven economy. Therefore, trade is significant for each country within the EMU. Unlike most significant economies, EMU does not incur large-scale trade deficit surpluses. Yet, EMU also has considerable trade volume with other countries, so it has great power in international trade. The formation of the EU has also increased its influence in the international community. If individual countries are integrated into a single economic bloc, they can negotiate on an equal footing with the United States, the largest trading partner.

歐洲貨幣聯盟是一種貿易和資本流動驅動的經濟。因此，對歐洲貨幣聯盟中的每個國家而言，貿易是最重要的。與其他經濟體不同，歐洲貨幣聯盟不會帶來大規模的貿易逆差或順差，但是，歐洲貨幣聯盟與其他國家的貿易量也很大，因此在國際貿易中具有強大的實力。歐盟的成立也增加了其在國際社會中的影響力。如果將單個國家整合到一個經濟體系中，可以與最大的貿易夥伴美國進行平等的談判。

The growing role of the EU in international trade has given significant meaning to the part of the euro as a reserve currency. To reduce exchange risk and transaction costs, countries should have a large amount of reserve currency. Traditionally, most international trade deals have used British pounds, Japanese yen, and U.S. dollars. Before introducing the euro, it was entirely unreasonable for European countries to hold the currencies of other European countries on a large scale. Hence, the bank had the reserve currency in dollars.

歐盟在國際貿易中的角色越來越重要，這使得歐元逐漸成為其他國家的儲備貨幣中之一。為了降低匯率風險和交易成本，各國應擁有大量的儲備貨幣。早期，大多數國際貿易交易都使用英鎊，日元和美元。在歐元出現之前，歐洲國家不會大規模持其他歐洲國家的貨幣，因此，大多銀行的儲備貨幣為美元。

歐洲中央銀行
決定貨幣政策

European Central Bank(ECB)

Determines Monetary Policy

ECB is the organisation responsible for determining the monetary policy of the EMU participating countries. The EMU’s executive committee form a policy with central bank governors from each country and implement policies. At bi-weekly meetings, the new monetary policy is usually decided by a majority vote, and if the polls are tied, the president will have the right to choose.

歐洲央行是負責決定歐洲貨幣聯盟成員國貨幣政策的組織。歐洲貨幣聯盟的執行委員會與各國中央銀行行長一起制定政策並執行政策。在每兩週一次的會議上，通過投票方式決定新的貨幣政策，如果票數結果相同，總統將有權選擇。

EMU’s primary goals are to stabilise prices and promote growth. Changes in monetary and fiscal policy are made to achieve these goals. The EU enacted the Maastricht Treaty, which established several application criteria for individual countries to achieve that goal. Any country that deviates from these standards will be subject to hefty fines.

歐洲貨幣聯盟的主要目的是穩定價格和促進經濟的成長。為了實現這些目標，改變了貨幣和財政政策。歐盟頒布了《馬斯垂克條約》，該條約為各個國家建立出實現此目標的適用準則，任何違反這些準則的國家都將受到巨額罰款。

Based on these criteria, the ECB has strict membership management rights focused on inflation and deficits. The ECB typically strives to maintain the monthly consumer price index, harmonised Index of consumer prices(HICP),  at less than 2% per year and M3 (currency supply) at 4.5% per year.

根據這些準則，歐洲央行擁有針對通脹和赤字的嚴格會員管理權。歐洲央行通常努力將每月的消費者物價指數及調和消費者物價指數（HICP）維持在每年最少2％的水準並將M3（貨幣供應）保持在每年4.5％的水準。

 

歐洲貨幣聯盟彙聚準則 EMU Convergence Criteria

The 1992 Treaty of Maastricht defined the following prerequisites for membership in the European Monetary Union (EMU).

1992年的《馬斯垂克條約》頒布成為歐洲貨幣聯盟（EMU）成員的條件，如下述:

 

1.  Inflation should not exceed 1.5% of the average annual inflation before the evaluation date of the three countries with the best economic conditions in the region

在三個經濟狀況最佳國家的評估之日之前，通貨膨脹率不應超過該地區年平均通貨膨脹率的1.5％。

2. 長期利率不得超過該地區任何國家（10年）通貨膨脹率最低的三個國家的12個月平均值。 Long-term interest rates will not exceed the 12-month average of the three countries with the lowest inflation rate of any country in the region (10 years).

3.匯率機能的匯率波動範圍，至少保持兩年在基準匯率上下15%。  The exchange rate will remain within the range of exchange rate fluctuation (15% above and below the benchmark rate) of the ERM (EXCHANGE-RATE MECHANISM) for at least 2 years.

4.所有政府債務餘額應保持在GDP的60％以內。如果高於此值，則允許其適當低降低。  General government debt balances should remain within 60% of GDP. If higher than this, allow if it is decreasing sufficiently.

5.一般財政赤字應保持在GDP的3％以內。允許其暫時或略微超過。 General financial deficits should remain within 3% of GDP. Allow temporary or slight excess.

ESCB, ECB and 28 member central banks are independent of governments and other EU agencies and have complete control over monetary policy. Members granted this operational independence under Article 108 of the Treaty of Maastricht. The main content of Article 108 states that members of a decision-making organisation cannot receive instructions from local, government, or any other organisation in the EU.

歐洲中央銀行體系、歐洲中央銀行和28個成員國的中央銀行，不附屬於政府和其他歐盟機構，可獨立制定貨幣政策。成員國根據《馬斯垂克條約》第108條，被授予此業務獨立性。第108條的主要內容規定，決策組織的成員，不得接收從地方、政府或歐盟任何其他組織的指示。

 

公開市場操縱 Open Market Manipulation

 

The ECB is operating open markets in four categories to adjust interest rates, manage liquidity and suggest monetary policy stance:

歐洲央行在四個類別的公開市場中進行操作，以調整利率，管理流動性並提出貨幣政策立場：

1. 主要再融資操作（MRO） Main Refinancing Operation(MRO) 

→這是對金融部門每週執行，為期兩週的流動性供應（貸款）計劃的再融資交易。 It is a two-week liquidity supply (loan) program implemented every week and is a refinancing transaction to the financial sector.

2. 長期再融資計畫（LTRO）Longer-Term Refinancing Operation(LTRO)

→作為期限超過三個月以上的流動性供應（貸款）計劃，向金融部門提供了長期再融資，該計劃每月實施一次。 Long-term refinancing is provided to the financial sector as a liquidity supply (loan) program with a maturity of more than three months, which is implemented once a month.

3. 微調操作 Fine-Tuning Operation

→ 會不時實施管理市場流動性和調整利率的政策，來控制因無法預見的流動性變化而引起的利率波動。 Policies implemented from time to time to manage liquidity in the market and adjust interest rates are implemented to control interest rate fluctuations arising from unforeseen changes in liquidity.

4. 結構操縱 Structural Manipulation

→這包括發行債務工具，贖回交易和交易概述。當歐洲央行想要調整歐元體系在金融部門（常規或非常規）中的結構地位時，就會進行操縱。 This includes issuing debt instruments, redemption transactions, and outline transactions. Manipulation occurs when ECB wants to adjust the euro system’s structural position in the financial sector (regular or irregular).

 

歐洲央行最低買入利率 ECB Minimum Bid Rate

The lowest bid rate for the European Central Bank is an important policy objective. It is directly related to a loan rate provided to the central bank of the various countries. The rate is adjusted every 2weeks, and ECB tends to keep interest rates to the targeted rate to prevent inflation.

歐洲中央銀行的最低買入利率是一項重要的政策目標。這與提供給各國中央銀行的貸款利率直接相關。該利率每兩週調整一次，歐洲央行傾向於將利率保持在目標利率以防止通貨膨脹。

The ECB is not reducing its exchange rate target, but it will consider the exchange rate in the policy deliberation process as it affects price stability. Consequently, the ECB implements foreign exchange market intervention in the event of inflation.

歐洲央行並未降低其目標匯率，但會在政策審議過程中考慮匯率，因為這會影響價格的穩定性。因此，如果出現通貨膨脹，歐洲央行將對外匯市場進行干預。

As a result, the policy committee members’ remarks draw attention to foreign exchange market participants and trigger euro volatility. The ECB publishes monthly data describing economic growth analysis and changes in perception of economic conditions, which need to be watched because it can detect the change in monetary policy stance.

結果，政策委員會成員的言論引起了外匯市場參與者的注意，並引發了歐元的波動。因此，歐洲央行在每月發布的經濟成長分析和對經濟狀況看法變化的數據時，需要留意這一點，因為可以從中發現貨幣政策立場的變化。

 

歐元的主要特徵 Key Characteristics of the Euro

 

1. 歐元/美元是最容易波動的貨幣，所有主要的歐元交叉貨幣也極易波動。 EUR/USD is the most volatile currency, and all major euro-cross currencies are also highly volatile.

The euro debuted on 1 January 1999 in the form of electronic currency. At that time, the euro replaced all pre-EMU currencies. As a result, EUR/USD is currently the most fluid currency pair globally, and the movement of EUR/USD is used as a primary measure of European and U.S. economic health. The euro is commonly known as the “anti-dollar” because it was the dollar’s fundamentals that influenced the EUR/USD currency pair movement between 2003 and 2008.

歐元於1999年1月1日以電子貨幣形式首次發行。當時，歐元取代了歐洲貨幣聯盟之前的所有貨幣。結果，歐元/美元是目前全球流動性最高的貨幣對，歐元/美元的變動被作為衡量歐洲和美國經濟健康狀況的主要指標。歐元通常被稱為“反美元”，正是因為美元的基本面影響了2003年至2008年之間歐元/ 美元貨幣對的動向。

EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF are also highly volatile currencies and are commonly used to determine Japanese and Swiss economies’ health. EUR/USD and EUR/GBP are good pairs of currencies to trade because of their low spread, orderly movement, and infrequent gaps.

歐元/日元和歐元/瑞郎也是高度波動的貨幣，通常用於確定日本和瑞士經濟的健康狀況。歐元/美元和歐元/英鎊的價差低、波動有序且不經常出現缺口，是良好的交易貨幣對。

2. 歐元獨特的風險。 The euro has unique risks.

Introduced in 1999, the euro is still a new currency. The euro is not a problem for other currencies, but there are many risks to consider. In other words, 28 countries are exposed to economic, political and social situations. Although the number of countries using the euro is expected to increase, it will affect the stability of the entire eurozone if any country stops using the euro or begins to return to its currency because it does not think the ECB’s policy is in its best interest.

歐元於1999年推出，至今仍是一種新的貨幣，相對於其他貨幣，歐元沒有很大的問題，但是仍有很多風險需要被考慮。儘管使用歐元的國家數量預計會增加，但是如果有任何國家停止使用歐元或開始重返本國貨幣，這將影響整個歐元區的穩定性。換句話說，有28個國家面臨經濟，政治和社會局勢的改變，因為歐洲央行的政策被認為不符合其最大利益。

The euro is the only currency in the world that is not used on a national basis. Even if Germany, France, Italy and Spain are the largest and most economically dominant countries in the eurozone, the ECB has the authority and responsibility to determine monetary policy for all 28 member states. The 28 member states frequently verify, criticise and politically press the ECB’s actions. Before the subprime crisis, the ECB was just a new, untested central bank. However, the ECB has wholly changed its reputation for them by responding quickly to the credit crunch and providing ample liquidity.

歐元是世界上唯一沒有在國家基礎上使用的貨幣。即使德國，法國，意大利和西班牙是歐元區最大和最具經濟優勢的國家，歐洲央行也有權力和責任來決定所有28個成員國的貨幣政策。這28個成員國經常對歐洲央行進行核對，批評及政治施壓的行動。在次貸危機爆發之前，歐洲央行只是一個未經測試的新央行。然而，歐洲央行通過迅速應對信貸緊縮提供充足的流動性，徹底改變了它們的聲譽。

3.十年期美國政府債券與十年期德國政府債券之間的利率差表明歐元走勢。 The spread of interest rates between 10-year U.S. government bonds and 10-year German government bonds suggests a euro direction.

The 10-year government bond is used as an essential indicator of the future euro exchange rate. The difference in interest rates between the 10-year U.S. and 10-year German government bonds is a good sign for the euro. If German government bond interest rates are higher than those of U.S. government bonds, and the difference increases or the spread widens, this suggests a rise in the euro. If the difference in interest rates decreases or the spread narrows, the euro can be predicted to fall. The 10-year German government bond is usually used as the eurozone’s benchmark bond.

10年期政府債券被做為未來歐元匯率的重要指標。美國10年期國債與德國10年期政府債券之間的利率差是歐元的好兆頭。如果德國政府債券的利率高於美國政府債券的利率，並且差額增加或利差擴大，則表明歐元上漲。如果利率差異減小或利差收窄，則可以預測歐元將下跌。德國10年期政府債券通常做為歐元區的基準債券。

4. 預測歐元區的資金流動。Forecasting the flow of funds in the euro area.

Another trading indicator is the Inter-European bank rate (three-month interest rate), a regular deposit rate between large banks. Traders tend to compare the eurodollar futures rate with the three-month interest rate to forecast the movement.

另一個交易指標是歐洲之間銀行利率（三個月的利率），這是大型銀行之間的定期存款利率。 交易者傾向於將歐元兌美元的期貨利率與三個月的利率進行比較，來預測未來走勢。

M&A also have significant implications for EUR/USD movements. M&A between EU and US multinational corporations has been increasing in recent years. The large transactions will have a significant short-term impact on EUR/USD.

買斷合併對歐元/美元走勢也有重大影響。 近年來，歐美跨國公司之間的併購活動一直增加。 大型交易將對歐元/美元產生重大的短期影響。

歐元的重要經濟指標 An Important Economic Indicator of the Euro

The following are all important economic indicators for the euro. It is also essential to be aware of political and economic situations such as GDP, inflation, and unemployment. The leading economies of the European Monetary Union (EMU) are Germany, France and Italy. Therefore, we should note the economic indicators of the above three countries, along with the overall EMU economic indicators.

以下是歐元的重要經濟指標。注意政治和經濟形勢，例如GDP，通貨膨脹和失業率也很重要。歐洲貨幣聯盟（EMU）的主要經濟體是德國，法國和義大利。因此，我們應注意上述三個國家的經濟指標以及歐洲貨幣聯盟的整體經濟指標。

1. GDP

GDP is collected and published by Eurostar from many countries. It usually includes France, Germany, and the Netherlands (Italy only added to the final report). The annual total of EU-28 and EMU-18 is a simple sum of national GDP. It is more complicated to add up because some countries (Greece, Ireland, Luxembourg) do not create quarterly national data. Moreover, Portugal produces partial quarterly figures with significant time differences. Thus, quarterly figures across EU-28 and EMU-18 are estimates based on groups of countries that account for more than 95% of the total EU GDP.

GDP由歐洲統計局收集許多國家的資料並發布的資訊。這些資料通常包括法國，德國和荷蘭（僅將義大利添加到最終報告中）。 EU-28和EMU-18的年度總數是國家GDP的簡單總和。由於某些國家（希臘，愛爾蘭，盧森堡）沒有季度的數據，所以加起來會較複雜。此外，葡萄牙有部分的季度數據計算有明顯的時差。因此，EU-28和EMU-18計算出的季度數據是根據佔歐盟總GDP超過95％的國家估算得出的。

2. 德國工業生產German Industrial Production

Industrial production includes a breakdown of four segments (mining, manufacturing, energy and construction) reflecting seasonal factors. Manufacturing production consists of four main product groups: necessary production materials, capital goods, consumer goods and non-durable consumer goods.

工業生產包括反映季節性因素的四個部分（採礦，製造，能源和建築）的細分。製造業的生產包括四個主要產品類別：必要的生產材料，資本品，消費品和非耐用消費品。

Since Germany is the largest economy in the eurozone, industrial production in Germany is significant. However, markets sometimes react to French industrial production. Because industrial production has fewer data samples, modifications using all models are used as valid data. The Treasury often displays the expected direction of the changes in the initial data.

德國是歐元區最大的經濟體，因此德國的工業生產非常重要。但是，市場有時會對法國的工業生產產生反應。由於工業生產的數據樣本較少，因此使用的所有模型都將修改成有效的數據。財政部通常會在初始數據中顯示預期的變化方向。

3. 調和消費者物價指數（HICP） Harmonized Consumer price index (HICP)

The EU HICP, announced by Eurostat, was designed for national comparative analysis based on EU law. Eurostat has published the index since January 1995, and since January 1998, it has published the EMU-18 Regional Detail Index, called the MUICP. Price information provides Euro start with 100 indexes for each national statistical agency to survey and calculate their harmonised consumer price index.

歐洲統計局（Eurostat）宣布的歐盟HICP旨在根據歐盟法律進行國家比較分析。歐洲統計局（Eurostat）自1995年1月起發布該指數，在1998年1月以來，它已發布了EMU-18地區的詳細指數，稱作消費者價格貨幣聯盟指數(MUICP)。價格訊息讓歐洲統計局，為每個國家統計機構提供了100個指數，來調查並計算統一其消費者物價指數。

Eurostar aggregates these sub-indexes into weighted averages and publishes each country’s harmonised consumer price index, which is then weighted by country and releases at the end of every month. It is around ten days after the announcement of the national CPI in Spain, France and EMU-5 countries.

歐洲統計局將這些子指數匯總為加權平均值，然後發布每個國家統一的消費者物價指數(CPI)，然後按國家加權，並在每個月底發布。距西班牙，法國和EMU-5國家的CPI公佈已經過了大約十天。

Although the market already reflects prices when the harmonised consumer price index is released, it is worth noting that the ECB references the index. The ECB aims to maintain consumer price inflation in the euro area within 0% to 2%.

儘管在發布統一的消費者物價指數時市場已經反映了價格，但值得注意的是，歐洲央行參考了該指數。歐洲央行的目標是將歐元區的消費者物價通脹維持在0％至2％之間。

4.貨幣供給量 M3

M3 is a broad money supply indicator that includes both bonds and bank deposits. The ECB closely observes M3 inflation as its primary measure. In December 1998, the ECB’s Policy Committee set the M3 target at 4.5%, achieving the inflation target of 2%, the growth target of 2 to 2.5%, and the long-term monetary rate target of 0.5 to 1%. Growth rates are observed on a three-month moving average basis to avoid possible information distortions in monthly variability.

M3是廣義的貨幣供應指標，包括債券和銀行存款。歐洲央行將M3通脹作為其主要措施並密切關注。 1998年12月，歐洲央行政策委員會將M3目標設定為4.5％，將通脹目標設定為2％，將成長目標設定為2至2.5％，將長期貨幣利率目標設定為0.5至1％。以三個月的移動平均值為基礎觀察成長率，以避免訊息因每月的變化而被曲解。

The ECB’s approach to monetary goals has room for manipulation and intervention. As the German central bank did, the ECB does not set the scope of M3, so there will be no action even if M3 is outside the set range. Furthermore, although the ECB considers M3 an important indicator, it will also refer to other changes in the direction of currency circulation.

歐洲央行在實現貨幣目標時，保留操縱和干預的餘地。正如德國中央銀行那樣，歐洲央行不會設定M3的範圍，因此即使M3超出設定範圍也不會採取任何行動。此外，儘管歐洲央行認為M3是一個重要指標，但也將此歸類於貨幣流通方向的其他變化。

5. 德國失業率 German Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate announced by the Federal Labor Office in Germany both seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) figures, including information on the unemployed population. Unseasonably adjusted unemployment rates are announced along with vacancies, short-term shifts, and the number of employees.

德國聯邦勞工局公佈的失業率包括季節性調整（SA）和非季節性調整（NSA）的數據，包括有關失業人口的訊息。公佈了未經季節性調整的失業率以及職位空缺，短期變動和僱員人數。

Germany’s central bank announces seasonally adjusted unemployment within an hour of the Federal Labor Office announcement. A day before the announcement, official data is often leaked from the labour union, when the number of unseasonably adjusted unemployed is almost millions.

德國中央銀行在聯邦勞工局宣布後的一小時內，宣布季節性調整後的失業率。公告發布的前一天，官方數據經常會從工會洩露出，未經季節性調整的失業人數接近數百萬。

When sources in Reuters report the offensive numbers of unseasonably adjusted unemployment, the leaked figures usually reflect official statistics. Rumours are sometimes circulated a week before the official announcement, but they are wildly inaccurate. Furthermore, German statements have been misinterpreted through foreign media so far, so caution is needed in interpreting rumours.

當路透社的消息報導出未經調整的失業人數時，洩漏的數字通常反映了官方統計數據。有時會謠言會在官方宣布的前一周傳開，但數據完全不正確。此外，到目前為止，德國的聲明已被外國媒體誤解，因此在解釋謠言時需要謹慎。

6. 每個國家的財政赤字 Each Country’s Fiscal Deficit

The stability and growth pact sets the upper limit of the fiscal deficit below 3% GDP. Each country also has goals to reduce its fiscal deficit. Market participants keep an eye on whether they fall short of the target.

穩定與成長協定將財政赤字的上限設定在GDP的3％以下。每個國家都有減少財政赤字的目標。市場參與者會密切關注他們是否沒達到目標。

7. IFO調查 IFO Survey

Germany, which accounts for more than 30% of the eurozone’s GDP, is Europe’s largest economy. Thus, an understanding of the status of German companies is regarded as this issue for the whole of Europe. IFO investigates the German corporate environment and short-term planning for 7,000 German companies every month.

德國是歐洲最大的經濟體，佔歐元區的GDP超過30％。 因此，對於整個歐洲來說，了解德國公司的經濟景氣狀況，相當的重要，所以IFO每月會調查7,000多家德國公司的狀況和短期計劃。

 

Traders need to pay attention to the difference between expectations and actual values of economic indicators. This is the most crucial part of interpreting news because it influences the foreign exchange market depending on market expectations and actual values.

交易者需要注意預期與經濟指標實際值之間的差異。這是解釋新聞最關鍵的部分，因為這是根據市場期望和實際價值來影響外匯市場。

This is called a market discount mechanism, showing the relationship between the forex market and the news are significant. If the information or economic indicators are closer to expectations, there is less impact on monetary movement. Therefore, short-term traders should look carefully at market expectations.

這稱為市場折扣機制，說明外匯市場與新聞之間的關係十分重要。如果訊息或經濟指標更接近預期，則對貨幣走勢的影響較小。因此，短期交易者應仔細觀察市場預期。

美元（USD）概述 The Overview of US Dollar (USD)

The U.S. is the world’s leading and largest economy. Based on the purchasing power evaluation model, it is three times the production of Japan, five times the output of Germany, and seven times the production of Britain. The United States is a service-oriented country where real estate, transportation, finance, medical services, and business services account for about 80% of GDP.

美國是領先世界和最大的經濟體。根據購買力評估模型，它是日本的三倍，德國的五倍和英國的七倍大。美國是一個服務型國家，房地產，運輸，金融，醫療服務和商業服務約佔GDP的80％。

Foreign investors have continued to increase their purchases of U.S. assets because the U.S. has the world’s most liquid stock and bond markets. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the number of foreigners directly investing in the United States amounts to 40 per cent of the world’s funds flowing into the United States. The United States also absorbs 71 per cent of all overseas savings.

外國投資者繼續增加對美國資產的購買，因為美國擁有世界上流動性最高的股票和債券市場。根據國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）的數據，在美國直接投資的外國人數量佔流入美國的全球資金的40％。美國還吸收了所有海外儲蓄的71％。

This means that if foreign investors withdraw their funds in the U.S. asset market, the asset value and the U.S. dollar will be significantly affected. More specifically, if foreign investors dispose of dollar-denominated assets to purchase other high-yield investments, this would result in a decline in the value of U.S. assets as well as U.S. dollars.

這意味著，如果外國投資者在美國資產市場上撤出資金，則資產價值和美元將受到重大影響。更具體地說，如果外國投資者賣出以美元計價的資產來購買其他高收益投資，這將會導致美國資產和美元的價值下降。

The size of U.S. imports and exports also exceeds that of other countries. This is due to the size of the United States itself, and the actual size of U.S. imports and exports is only 12% of GDP. Despite this massive trade activity, the United States recorded a current account deficit. This is a problem that the U.S. economy has been troubled with for more than a decade.

雖然美國進出口的實際規模僅佔GDP的12％，但因為美國本身的規模，其進出口規模也超過其他國家。儘管有如此大規模的貿易活動，美國經常帳戶仍常赤字，這是美國經濟長達十多年的問題。

And over the last decade,  the U.S. has weakened its overseas funding capacity as foreign central banks have considered diversifying their reserve assets from the dollar to the euro, making the current account deficit a bigger problem. The U.S. dollar is susceptible to changes in capital flows due to its massive current account deficit.

在過去的十年中，由於外國央行考慮將其儲備資產從美元分散到歐元，美國被削弱了其海外融資能力，這使得其經常帳戶的赤字成為更大的問題。由於經常帳戶赤字巨大，美元容易受到資本流動變化的影響。

The United States is also the largest trading partner in many countries, with U.S. trade accounting for 20 per cent of the world’s trade. The changes in dollar-value and volatility affect trade activities with U.S. trading partners. More specifically, a weak dollar will boost exports of U.S. products, but a strong dollar will reduce overseas demand for U.S. products.

美國還是許多國家中最大的貿易夥伴，美國貿易占世界貿易的20％。美元價值和波動率的變化會影響與美國貿易夥伴的貿易活動。更具體地說，美元走弱將提高美國產品的出口，但美元走強將減少海外對美國產品的需求。

聯準會監管貨幣政策 FED Regulate Monetary Policy

The Federal Reserve is a U.S. monetary policy authority. The FED determines and implements monetary policy through the FOMC. The FOMC’s voting members are seven members of the FED and five of the 12 regional Federal Reserve governors. The FOMC holds regular meetings eight times a year, widely watched as it decides whether to adjust interest rates or presents economic growth forecasts.

聯準會是美國貨幣政策的管理機構，聯準會通過聯邦公開巿場操作委員會決定並實施貨幣政策。聯邦公開巿場操作委員會的投票成員是聯準會的七名成員和聯準會12個州，州長中的五個。聯邦公開巿場操作委員會（FOMC）每年舉行八次例會，決定是否調整利率或提供經濟增長預測時，都被廣泛關注。

The FED has an entirely independent monetary policy authority and less political influence. This is because most board members can serve a very long term (14 years), even if the ruling party of the president and Congress changes.

聯準會擁有完全獨立的貨幣政策權力，被政治影響較小，即使總統和國會的執政黨發生變化，大多數的董事會成員也可以擔任非常長的任期（14年）。

The FED will issue monetary policy reports for the first half of February and July, followed by Humphrey-Hawkins testimony. The Federal Reserve Chairman answers questions from Congress and the Banking Committee regarding the report. It is worth noting that the report includes the FOMC’s outlook on GDP, inflation and unemployment.

依照漢弗萊·霍金斯（Humphrey-Hawkins）法案的規定，聯準會在每年2月和7月上半月發布貨幣政策報告。聯準會主席需回答國會和銀行委員會對於該報告的問題。值得注意的是，該報告包括了聯邦公開巿場操作委員會對GDP，通脹和失業率的觀點。

Unlike other central banks, the FED has the authority to achieve its long-term goal of price stability and sustainable economic growth. To achieve this goal, the FED must control inflation and unemployment and implement monetary policies for balanced growth. The most common means used by FEDs to control monetary policy are open market manipulation and federal funding rates.

與其他中央銀行不同，聯準會有權實現其長期目標來穩定價格和可持續經濟的增長。為了實現這一個目標，聯準會必須控制通貨膨脹和失業率，並實施貨幣政策來實現均衡發展。聯準會用來控制貨幣政策，最常見手段是公開市場操縱和聯邦資金利率。

1. 公開市場操縱 Open Market Manipulation

Open market manipulation involves FED buying state bonds, including treasury bills, treasury notes, and treasury bonds. This is one of the most common means of FED to suggest and implement policy changes.

公開市場操縱涉及聯準會購買國債，包括短期國庫券、國庫票據和國庫長期債券。這是聯準會建議和實施政策變更的最常用方法之一。

In general, if FED increases the purchase of state bonds, liquidity is supplied to the market, which lowers interest rates. When FED sells state bonds, it absorbs market liquidity and increases interest rates.

一般而言，如果聯準會增加購買國債，將提供給市場流動性，從而降低利率。當聯準會出售國債時，會吸收市場的流動性並提高利率。

2.聯邦資助目標 Federal Funding Goals

The federal funding target rate is a key policy objective of the Federal Reserve and refers to the interest rate that the FED applies to loans to member banks. FED drive growth and consumption by raising federal funds rates to lower inflation or lower federal funds rates. Changes in federal funding rates are closely observed in the marketplace, meaning significant policy changes, which have a broad impact on bond and stock markets worldwide. The market pays particular attention to the fed statement, as it provides clues to the future direction of monetary policy.

聯邦資金目標利率是聯準會的關鍵政策目標，指聯準會適用於向成員銀行貸款的利率。聯準會通過提高聯邦基金利率來降低通脹或降低聯邦基金利率驅動成長和消費。市場上密切觀察到聯邦資金利率的變化，這意味著重大的政策變化，對全球債券和股票市場產生了巨大的影響。市場特別關注聯準會的聲明，因為這對貨幣政策的未來走向提供了線索。

In terms of fiscal policy, the U.S. Treasury Department has the right to determine the federal funds rate. Determination of fiscal policy involves determining appropriate levels of tax and government expenditure. The market is paying more attention to the FED, but the real government agency that determines the dollar policy is the U.S. Treasury Department.

在財政政策方面，美國財政部有權決定聯邦基金利率。決定財政政策涉及適當稅收的決策和政府支出的水平。市場越來越關注聯準會，但決定美元政策真正的政府機構是美國財政部。

In other words, if the dollar is judged to be undervalued or overvalued in the foreign exchange market, the Treasury Department grants or directs the New York Federal Reserve to sell or buy U.S. dollars by allowing it to intervene in the foreign exchange market. Therefore, changes in the Treasury’s dollar policy and its policies are critical to the currency market.

換句話說，如果美金在外匯市場中被低估或高估，財政部被允許干預外匯市場，授予或指示紐約聯邦儲備銀行出售或購買美金。因此，美國財政部的貨幣政策的變化對貨幣市場相當重要。

美金的主要特徵 Key Characteristics of the Dollar

1. 貨幣交易中超過90％與美金相關。 More than 90% of all currency transactions are dollar related.

The most volatile currencies in the foreign exchange market are EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD and USD/CHF. These currencies are the most actively traded globally and are related to the U.S. dollar. More than 90% of all currency transactions are related to the U.S. dollar, so the dollar is significant for foreign exchange traders. Therefore, the most important economic indicator that drives the market is the fundamentals of the United States.

外匯市場中波動最大的貨幣是歐元/美金、美金/日幣、英鎊/美金和美金/瑞士法郎，這些貨幣是全球交易最活躍的貨幣，皆與美金有關。貨幣交易中超過90％都與美金相關，美金對外匯交易者而言意義重大。因此，推動市場最重要的經濟指標是美國的基本面。

Before the September 11 attacks, the dollar was the world’s best safe currency.

在9月11日恐怖攻擊之前，美金是世界上最安全的貨幣。

The U.S. dollar was considered the world’s highest safe currency because the U.S. stability was very high before September 11, 2001. The United States was known as one of the safest and most advanced markets in the world. The dollar’s status as a safe asset allowed the United States to attract investment at a low rate of return, and 76% of the world’s monetary reserves were dollar-denominated assets.

在2001年9月11日之前美金的穩定性非常高，被世界認為是安全性最高的貨幣，也是最先進的市場之一。美金作為安全資產的地位使美國能夠以低回報率吸引投資，世界上76％的外匯儲備都是以美元計價的資產。

Another reason for holding monetary reserves in U.S. dollars is that the dollar is the world’s key currency. The dollar’s position as a safe asset has played an essential role in choosing a reserve currency for foreign central banks. However, foreigners, including central banks, have had less U.S. assets since September 11, as uncertainties about the U.S. increased and interest rates have fallen.

讓美金作為外匯儲備的另一個原因是，美金是世界主要貨幣。美金作為安全資產的地位在外國央行選擇儲備貨幣方面發揮了相當重要的作用。但是，自911事件發生後，外國人持有的美國資產，包括中央銀行在內，皆有所減少，因為對美國的不確定性增加且利率下降。

The emergence of the euro also threatened the dollar’s status as the world’s top reserve currency. Many of the world’s central banks have already begun to diversify their reserve currencies by reducing their dollar reserves and increasing their euro reserves. This trend is an essential thing for all traders to watch in the future.

歐元的出現也威脅到美元作為世界外匯儲備的地位。世界上許多央行已經開始通過減少美元儲備和增加歐元儲備來使其儲備外匯多樣化。對於所有交易者而言，這將會是未來的趨勢。

2. 美金走勢與黃金價格成反比。 The U.S. dollar moves in the opposite direction to the price of gold.

Historically, the gold prices and the U.S. dollar shows conflicting mirror images. This means that the dollar falls when gold prices rise and vice versa. This inverse correlation stems from the fact that the value of gold is measured in dollars.

從歷史上看，金價和美金呈現出相反的走勢。這意味著，當金價上漲時，美元貶值，反之亦然。這種反相關性源於黃金的價值以美金為單位的事實。

Gold has long been recognized as the ultimate form of currency, so the depreciation of the dollar due to global uncertainty has been the main reason for the rise in gold prices. Also, because gold is considered the best safe asset, investors will flock to gold if it highlighted geopolitical uncertainty. This inherently undermines the value of the dollar.

長期以來黃金一直被認為是貨幣的最終形式，因此當全球對於美金的不確定性而導致美金貶值是黃金價格上漲的主要原因。另外，由於黃金被認為是最安全資產，如果出現地緣政治的不確定性，投資者就會湧向黃金。這逐漸降低了美元的價值。

3. 許多新興國家將其貨幣價值與美金綁定。 Many emerging countries link their currency values to the dollar.

Interlocking the dollar has to do with the basic idea that the government will agree to keep the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency by buying or selling its currency at a fixed exchange rate for the reserve currency. These governments should promise to have at least the same amount of national currency and reserve currency in general circulation.

與美金的關聯，即政府同意通過以固定匯率對外匯儲備進行買賣來保持美金作為儲備貨幣。政府應保證在一般流通中至少具有相同數量的本國貨幣和儲備貨幣。

Therefore, these central banks, which have held large amounts of U.S. dollars and are actively interested in managing fixed or variable exchange rates, are critical. Currently, Hong Kong has a fixed exchange rate system linked to the dollar, and China has also maintained a fixed exchange rate system linked to the dollar until July 2005.

因此，這些持有大量美金並對積極關心管理固定或變動匯率的中央銀行非常重要。目前，香港與美元有綁定的固定匯率制度，而直到2005年7月，中國也一直維持與美元掛鉤的固定匯率制度。

China is a very active participant in the currency market. This is because China’s maximum daily fluctuation is controlled within a very narrow range based on the closing exchange rate of the U.S. dollar the previous day. If it goes beyond this within a day, the central bank will buy or sell dollars through foreign exchange market intervention.

中國非常積極的參與貨幣市場，因為中國的每日最大波動幅度，會根據前一天美金的收盤匯率，被控制在一個非常狹窄的範圍內。如果一天之內超過這一水平，央行將通過外匯市場來干預買賣美元。

Before July 21, 2005, China implemented a peg system that fixed its exchange rate at 8.3 yuan to the dollar. Under pressure to appreciate the currency for many years, China adjusted its currency rate to 8.11 yuan and adjusted it to the closing price of the currency every day. Since then, China has shifted to a management-varying exchange rate system based on the currency basket exchange rate.

在2005年7月21日之前，中國實行了綁定的匯率制，將人民幣匯率固定在1美元兌8.3元人民幣。 在多年升值的壓力下，中國將人民幣匯率調整為8.11元，並調整為每天的收盤價。 從那時起，中國開始轉向基於貨幣組合的方式管理變動匯率制度。

Over the past one or two years, the market has noted the asset acquisition patterns of these central banks. The need for U.S. dollars and dollar-denominated assets is gradually decreasing for central banks as the diversification of the reserve currency, and the flexibility of the exchange rate system in Asian countries progresses. If this is true, it could be a very negative factor for the U.S. dollar in the long run.

在過去的一兩年中，市場已經注意到這些中央銀行的資產收購模式。 隨著外匯儲備的多樣化以及亞洲國家匯率制度逐漸的改進，各國央行對美元和以美金計價的資產的需求正在逐漸減少。 從長遠來看，對美金會是一個非常不利的因素。

4. 遵循美國政府債券與海外債券之間的利率差異。Interest rate differences between U.S. government bonds and overseas bonds are strongly followed.

The difference in interest rates between U.S. government bonds and overseas bonds is an essential relationship that professional FX traders follow. This could be a strong indicator of potential currency movements, as the U.S. bond market is one of the world’s largest bond markets, and investors are very sensitive to the return of unsold assets.

美國政府債券與海外債券之間的利率差異是專業外匯交易者必須遵循的必要關係。這可能是潛在貨幣走勢的有力指標，因為美國債券市場是世界上最大的債券市場之一，並且投資者對未售出資產的回報非常敏感。

Large investors are always looking for assets that offer high returns. Investors will sell U.S. assets and buy overseas assets if the yield on U.S. bonds decreases or increases foreign bonds. Selling U.S. bonds or stocks will affect the currency market, as it involves selling U.S. dollars and buying foreign currencies. If the yield on U.S. bonds increases or the yield on overseas bonds decreases, investors will eventually buy U.S. assets, resulting in a strong U.S. dollar.

大型投資者一直在尋找能帶來高回報的資產。如果美國債券的收益率下降，投資者將出售美國資產或併購買海外資產來增加外國債券。賣出美國債券或股票會影響到貨幣市場，因為這些都涉及到賣出美金和購買外幣。如果美國債券的收益率上升，或海外債券的收益率下降，則投資者將購買回美國資產，此結果使得美金將走強。

5.密切關注美元指數。 Keep an eye on the dollar index.

Market participants closely observe the US DOLLAR INDEX (USDX) to measure overall dollar strength or weakness. USDX is a futures contract traded on the New York Exchange, which is determined by the weight of trade volume in six major countries worldwide.

市場參與者密切觀察美國美元指數（USDX），以衡量總體美元的強弱。 美元指數是在紐約交易所交易的期貨合約，取決於全球六個主要國家的交易比重。

It is essential to share the index because market participants refer to the general index when discussing a general weakening of the dollar or a fall in the trade-weighted dollar. Besides, even if the dollar fluctuates significantly against individual currencies, USDX may not move significantly because it is based on trade weights.

共享指數非常重要，因為在討論美元總體弱化或美元貿易加權下跌時，市場參與者會參考總指數。此外，即使美金兌個別貨幣有大幅波動，美元指數也不可能會大幅波動，因為美元指數是以交易權重為基礎。

The index is important because some central banks focus on the trade price index rather than the individual currency pair movement against the dollar.

該指數之所以重要，是因為某些央行將重點放在貿易價格指數上，而不是單個貨幣對兌美元的走勢。

6. 美元受到股票市場和債券市場的影響。The U.S. Dollar is affected by the stock market and bond market

There is a strong correlation between a country’s stock and bond markets and its currency. In general, a rise in the stock market will bring in foreign funds to gain investment opportunities. If the stock market falls, local investors will sell local stocks to seize overseas investment opportunities.

一個國家的股票和債券市場與其貨幣之間有很強的相關性。一般而言，股票市場上漲將吸引外國資金來獲得投資機會。如果股市下跌，當地投資者將出售當地股票，來取得海外投資機會。

For the bond market, a more robust economy would prompt the inflow of foreign capital. Changes in exchange rates and developments in these markets result in changes in foreign portfolio investment, requiring foreign exchange transactions.

對於債券市場而言，更強勁的經濟將促使外國資本流入。匯率的變化和這些市場的發展導致外國證券投資產生變化，需要進行外匯交易。

M&As between countries are also an essential part of FX traders’ watch. Large-scale M&A involving significant cash transactions have a substantial impact on the currency market. Because the buyer must buy or sell dollars to secure cross-border mergers and acquisitions funds.

國家之間的買斷合併也是外匯交易者主要觀察的部分。涉及大量現金交易的大規模併購對貨幣市場產生重大影響。因為買方必須買賣美元才能獲得跨境併購的資金。

重要的美國經濟指標 Important U.S. Economic Indicators

The following economic indicators are all critical indicators for the U.S. dollar. Since the U.S. economy is a service-oriented country,  the service sector’s indicators should be taken into account.

以下經濟指標都是美元的關鍵指標。由於美國經濟是服務型國家，因此應考慮服務業的指標。

1. 非農就業 Employment-Non-Farm

U.S. employment indicators are the most important and highly watched economic indicators. This is due to the Federal Reserve’s political influence under intense pressure to control unemployment. As a result, interest rate policies are directly affected by employment conditions.

美國就業指標是最重要且受到高度關注的經濟指標。這是由於美聯儲在控制失業的巨大壓力下的政治影響。結果，利率政策直接受到就業條件的影響。

It includes two surveys: a monthly reporting business survey and a household survey. Business survey results in non-agricultural employment, average weekly working hours per hour, total working hours index, and household survey results in information about the working population, household employment, and unemployment rate.

它包括兩項調查：每月報告機構調查和家戶調查。機構調查的結果是非農業就業，每小時平均每週工作時間，總工作時間指數以及家戶調查的結果是有關工作人口，家庭就業和失業率的訊息。

Forex traders watch for significant changes in the monthly unemployment rate and the number of non-agricultural workers who have undergone a seasonally adjusted period.

外匯交易員關注每月失業率以及經歷了季節性調整期的非農業工人人數的重大變化。

2. 消費者物價指數 Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a crucial measure of inflation and the price of a basket of consumer goods. Economists focus more on source inflation, except for CPI-Utility or highly volatile foodstuffs and energy items. The consumer price index is observed with interest in the foreign exchange market because it can lead to various economic and social changes.

消費者物價指數（CPI）是衡量通貨膨脹和一籃子物價的關鍵指標。除CPI的效用或容易波動的食品和能源統計數字外，經濟學家更多地關注物價上漲。觀察到的消費者價格指數引起了外匯市場的興趣，因為它可能導致各種經濟和社會變化。

3. 生產物價格指數 Producer Price Index

The PPI is an index that measures the average change in sales prices released by domestic producers. The PPI tracks price changes in almost all production industries in the country like agriculture, electricity, natural gas, forestry, fishing, manufacturing, and mining. The foreign exchange market traders should watch how the PPI index reacts monthly, quarterly, and annually along with the seasonally adjusted PPI.

PPI是衡量國內製造商發布的平均銷售價格變化的指數。 PPI追蹤全國所有生產行業的價格變化，例如農業，電力，天然氣，林業，漁業，製造業和採礦業。外匯市場交易者應注意PPI指數每月，每季度和每年經過季節性調整的PPI反應。

4. 國內生產毛額 Gross Domestic Product

Gross domestic product (GDP) is a measure of the total amount of goods and services produced and consumed in the United States. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) comprises two complementary components: income-based data and expenditure-based data.

國內生產毛額（GDP）是美國生產商品總量和消費以及服務的產出。美國經濟分析局（BEA）包含兩個補充部分：基於收入的數據和基於支出的數據。

The reserve of GDP released a month after the end of each minute is the most important indicator that includes estimates of inventories and trade balances that have not yet been disclosed. Other announcements of GDP are not necessary unless they are significantly revised.

在每個月最後一分鐘結束後公布的GDP儲備是最重要的指標，其中包括尚揭露露的庫存估算和貿易差額。除非對其進行了重大修訂，否則不會另外發布其他GDP公告。

5. 貿易差額 Trade Balance

The balance of trade represents the difference between imports and exports of goods and services. It provides detailed information on trade with all countries and individual goods and trade with specific countries and regions. Traders judge the monthly benchmark figure to be low in reliability and focus on the three-month seasonally adjusted trade balance.

貿易差額是貨物和服務進出口之間的差額。它提供了所有與國家和個人物品的貿易以及與特定國家及地區貿易的詳細資訊。交易員認為，每月基準的數據可靠性較低，較著重於經過三個月的季度調整後的貿易差額。

6.就業成本指數  Employment Cost Index

The ECI is a measure of employees’ remuneration at the end of each quarter’s third monthly pay cycle. The survey measures the probability of approximately 3,600 private company employees and 700 state and local governments, public schools, and public hospitals.

ECI是對每三個月的季度工資週期結束時員工薪酬的衡量。該調查測量了大約3600間私人公司員工以及700個州和地方政府，公立學校和公立醫院的結果。

A significant advantage of the Employment Cost Index is that it includes non-wage expenses that account for more than 30% of the total employment cost. It is necessary to pay close attention because it is an indicator that the Fed is watching.

就業成本指數有個顯著優勢是它包含了佔總就業成本30％以上的非工資支出。必須密切注意，因為這是美聯儲正在關注的指標。

7. 美國供應管理協會 Institute for Supply Management

The ISM publishes monthly composite indices calculated by surveys from 20 industries and 300 manufacturers nationwide. An index greater than 50 indicates an expansion of the competition or a contraction for less than 50. It is widely seen as one indicator that Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the Fed, watched very closely.

ISM每月發布的綜合指數，這些指數是根據來自全國20個行業和300家製造商調查得出的。指數大於50表示競爭加劇或收縮減小於50。人們普遍認為，美聯儲前主席艾倫•格林斯潘非常密切地關注著這一指標。

8. 工業生產指數 Industrial Production Index

The Industrial Production Index is an index that measures the performance of U.S. manufacturing, mining, and utility production. It is possible to identify production activities for each industry and item. The foreign exchange market mainly focuses on the total number of seasonal changes. An increase in the index usually causes a strong dollar.

工業生產指數是衡量美國製造業，採礦業和公用事業生產績效的指數。可以識別每個行業和每個項目的生產活動。外匯市場主要集中在季度的變化總數上。指數的上漲通常會導至美元走強。

9. 消費者信心指數 Consumer Confidence Index

The Consumer Confidence Index is calculated based on consumers’ individual economic perceptions. The survey is based on a sample of 5,000 households nationwide, usually calculated with 3,500 responses. It’s a total of five questions.

消費者信心指數是根據消費者的個人經濟觀念計算出的。該調查基於全國5,000戶的樣本，通常以3500份回答進行計算。總共有五個問題。

– 當地的工作狀況。Local business conditions.

-6個月的區域經濟展望。 Regional Economic Outlook in 6 Months.

– 該地區的就業情況。Employment situation in the region.

– 6個月內的就業前景。 Prospects for employment in 6 months.

– 預測6個月的家庭收入。Forecast of household income in 6 months.

The survey responses shall be individually indexed after seasonal adjustment and then made into a composite index. Market participants perceive the rise in the consumer confidence index as a signal of increased consumer spending. Increasing consumer spending is often seen as a catalyst for accelerating inflation.

季度調整後，應將個體指數的調查結果，製成複合指數。市場參與者認為消費者信心指數的上升是消費者支出增加的信號。消費者支出的增加通常被視為加速通膨的催化劑。

10. 零售銷售 Retail Sales

The Retail Sales Index measures monthly gross sales by selecting a retailer sample. It represents a measure of consumer spending and consumer confidence. The index excluding car sales is the most important because of the large monthly fluctuations in automobile sales. Retail sales are very volatile due to seasonal factors, but they are an essential indicator of economic status.

零售指數通過選擇零售商樣本來衡量月度總銷售額。它代表了消費者支出和消費者信心的估量。排除汽車銷量的指數是最重要的，因為汽車銷量每月都有較大的波動。由於季節的因素，零售指數較不穩定，但它們仍是經濟狀況的重要指標。

11. 美國國際資本流動數據（TIC數據）Treasury Department International Capital Outflow Data (TIC Data)

The TIC data is a monthly measure of the total amount of capital inflows into the United States. The data has grown in importance over the years as the U.S. trade/financial deficit has deepened.

TIC數據是每月流入美國的資本總量的估量。這些年來，隨著美國貿易金融赤字的加深，數據的重要性越來越高。

It becomes a more significant issue as a way to resolve the U.S. trade deficit, and the market pays attention to the capital flow of the public sector, which represents the demand for U.S. bonds by foreign central banks.

作為解決美國貿易逆差的方法，這已成為一個更加重要的問題，市場關注公共部門的資本流動，這代表了外國中央銀行對美國債券的需求。

As the Forex market opens 24hours a day, it is not easy for traders to participate in all of the time zones and respond immediately every time. Therefore, timing is the most essential thing in foreign exchange trading.

由於外匯市場全天24小時開放，交易員每次都要即時回覆和參與所有時區的交易並不容易，所以時機是外匯交易中最重要的事情。

To develop the most effective and time-efficient trading strategy, it is crucial to know how active market movements depending on the time zones. Only then you get as many trading opportunities as possible in the time zone you participate in.

要製定最有效、最省時的交易策略，更重要的是了解各時區活躍市場的動向。只有這樣，您才能盡可能參與不同時區的市場，獲得多更多的交易機會。

In addition to liquidity, the extent of fluctuations in currency pairs also depends mainly on each country’s geopolitical locations and macroeconomic conditions. Thus, by finding out when the currency pair moves the most and when the least, the trader can increase his or her investment efficiency through efficient asset allocation. Let get started!

除流動性外，貨幣對的波動程度還主要取決於每個國家的地緣政治位置和宏觀經濟狀況。因此，通過找出貨幣對何時移動最多和何時移動最少，交易者可以通過有效的資產分配來提高他們的投資效率。

 

Asian Market (Tokyo FX Market)亞洲市場（東京外匯市場）

 

19:00 – 04:00 (東部時間 Eastern Time)

 

In Asian markets, foreign exchange trading is mainly carried out in certain financial centres. The Tokyo foreign exchange market, which accounts for a larger portion of the Asian time zone, is followed by Hong Kong and Singapore. Japan’s central bank’s influence in the foreign exchange market is gradually weakening, but the Tokyo foreign exchange market is still one of Asia’s most important foreign exchange markets.

在亞洲市場，外匯交易主要在某些金融中心進行。佔亞洲時區很大一部分的東京外匯市場緊隨其後的是香港和新加坡。日本央行在外匯市場上的影響力正在逐漸減弱，但是東京外匯市場仍然是亞洲最重要的外匯市場之一。

Since this is the first major market opening among Asian markets, many investors use the Tokyo market as a trading momentum and a benchmark for measuring market dynamics in order to establish trading strategies. Sometimes trading in the Tokyo foreign exchange market is inactive. Still, large investment banks and hedge funds are known to operate important stop orders or options in the Asian market.

由於這是亞洲市場中第一個主要的市場開放，因此許多投資者將東京市場作為交易動力和衡量市場動態以建立交易策略的基準。有時東京外匯市場的交易不活躍，不過，有許多知名的大型投資銀行和對沖基金在亞洲市場操作重要的止損單或期權。

For risk-taking traders, USD/JPY, GBP/CHF and GBP/JPY are good choices. These currency pairs usually offer attractive opportunities of 90 per cent on average to traders who trade during short periods of time because of their large fluctuations. Foreign investment banks and institutional investors, mostly holding dollar-denominated assets, generate large amounts of transactions when they participate in the Japanese stock market or bond market. Japan’s central bank, which holds about $800 billion in U.S. bonds, exerts great influence in the foreign exchange market, affecting the demand and supply of USD/JPY by manipulating the open market.

對於冒險的交易者，美金 / 日幣，英鎊/瑞士法郎和英鎊/日幣是不錯的選擇。這些貨幣對通常因為波動較大，對在短時間內進行交易的交易者有很大的吸引力。主要持有美元資產的外國投資銀行和機構投資者在參與日本股票市場或債券市場時會產生大量交易。持有約美金80億美國公債的日本央行在外匯市場發揮了巨大影響，通過操縱公開市場來影響美元/日元的需求和供應。

Finally, large Japanese exporters are also known to send their overseas earnings to their home countries during the Tokyo foreign exchange market, which increases the exchange rate fluctuation. Meanwhile, GBP/CHF and GBP/JPY show high volatility in Asian markets for central banks and large investors to adjust their positions in preparation for European market opening.

最後，日本知名的大型出口商在東京外匯市場中將其海外收入匯往本國，這加劇了匯率波動。同時，英鎊/瑞士法郎和英鎊/日元在亞洲市場中表現出極大的波動性，各國央行和大型投資者為準備開放歐洲市場而調整頭寸。

Traders who do not prefer risk, AUD/JPY, GBP/USD, and USD/CHF are good choices. Usually, these calls are because mid-to-long-term traders may take into account the fundamentals of decision-making. Traders can protect their investment strategies from abnormal market movements due to speculative day traders by choosing currencies with low fluctuations

對於不喜歡風險的交易者，澳元/日元，英鎊/美元和美元/瑞士法郎是不錯的選擇。通常，這些看漲是因為中長期交易者可能會考慮決策的基本原理。因為日間投機者選擇波動較小的貨幣，交易者可以通過市場異常的波動來保護他們的投資策略。

 

US market (New York FX market)美國市場（紐約外匯市場）

 

8:00 to 17:00 (Eastern Time東部時間)

 

The New York market is the second largest in the foreign exchange market and it serves as the last market of the day. Forex trading activities are minimized during the afternoon market until the start of the Tokyo forex market the next day. Many of the time zones in which the US market opens are still in the European market, so they overlap, indicating very high liquidity.

紐約市場是外匯市場中的第二大市場，並且是當天的最後一個市場。下午交易市場將外匯交易活動降至最低，直到第二天東京外匯市場開始。因此美國與歐洲的市場重疊，許多時區在美國市場開放時仍在歐洲市場進行，說明流動性非常的高。

If you prefer risk, we recommend trading GBP/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF. This is because the average range of variation during the day is about 120 pips. The above-mentioned currencies are particularly active during this time because they directly include the dollar.

如果您偏向有風險的投資，我們建議您交易英鎊 / 美金，美金 / 瑞士法郎，英鎊 / 日幣，英鎊 / 瑞士法郎。因為這些貨幣對直接包含美元且白天期間特別活躍，平均變化範圍約為120點。

To be more specific, as the U.S. forex market opens during the U.S. foreign exchange market’s opening hours, foreign investors convert their currencies (such as the Yen, Euro, and Swiss Franc) into dollar-denominated assets in the U.S. market for stock and bond investments. Also, this time zone is the time zone where GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF show the largest daily fluctuations as the European and U.S. markets overlap.

更具體地說，隨著美國外匯市場在美國外匯市場開放期間，外國投資者將其貨幣（例如日元，歐元和瑞士法郎）轉換為美國市場中以美元計價的股票和債券資產投資。同樣的，該時區是英鎊 / 日幣和英鎊 /瑞士法郎在歐洲和美國市場重疊的情況下顯示出最大每日波動的時區。

In the foreign exchange market, the exchange rate for most currencies is denominated in dollars because the currency pair must exchange it for dollars before it changes to another currency. For example, GBP/JPY does not change directly from Yen to Pound but is eventually converted to Yen once converted to Dollar.

在外匯市場上，大多數貨幣的匯率都以美元計價，因為貨幣對必須先將其兌換成美元才能兌換成另一種貨幣。例如，英鎊/ 日幣不會直接從日元更改為英鎊，而是會先轉換為美元後再最終轉換回日元。

Thus, trading GBP/JPY also depends on the two aforementioned currency pairs’ correlation, including two different currency pairs: GBP/USD and USD/JPY. GBP/USD and USD/JPY are negatively correlated because they move in opposite directions, amplifying volatility.

因此，交易英鎊 / 日幣還取決於下述兩個貨幣對的相關性，包括兩個不同的貨幣對：英鎊 / 美金和美金/ 日幣。英鎊/美元和美元/日幣呈現相反關聯，因為它們朝相反的方向移動，加劇了波動。

The movement of USD/CHF can also explain similar methods, but the intensity of volatility is greater. Although currency trading with high volatility may be attractive somehow, we should remember that the inherent risks are also greater. Traders always have to continuously modify their strategies to suit market conditions, as sudden changes in exchange rates can disrupt orders or invalidate their long-term strategies.

美元/瑞士法郎的變動也可以用類似的方法解釋，但波動幅度更大。 儘管高波動性的貨幣交易可能更具有吸引力，但我們應該記住，固有的風險也更大。 交易者必須不斷修改其策略來適應市場條件，因為匯率的突然變化會中斷訂單或使他們的長期策略失效。

Traders who do not prefer risk are usually recommended to choose USD/JPY, EUR/USD, and USD/CAD because the above currency pairs show moderate fluctuations to allow traders to take small risks and earn attractive returns. These currency pairs are rich in liquidity, allowing investors to quickly and efficiently realize losses or profits. These currencies are also not very volatile, which is advantageous for traders using long-term strategies.

通常會建議偏向低風險的交易者選擇美元/日圓，歐元/美元和美元/加幣，因為上述貨幣對顯示出適度的波動，是交易者可以承擔較小的風險並獲得可觀的回報。 這些貨幣對具有豐富的流動性，使投資者能夠快速有效地實現虧損或利潤。 這些貨幣也不太波動，對於使用長期策略的交易者是有利的。

 

歐洲市場（倫敦外匯市場）European market (London FX market)

 

下午2點至中午（東部時間）2 pm to noon (Eastern Time)

 

London’s foreign exchange market is the largest and most important market in the world. According to a BIS survey, it accounts for more than 30 per cent of the world’s trading volume. Dealing desks for large banks are usually located in London, and the major currency transactions are operating in London due to their high liquidity and efficiency. London’s foreign exchange market is the most volatile compare to other markets due to the larger number of market participants and huge trading volume.

倫敦的外匯市場是世界上最大，最重要的市場。根據國際清算銀行的一項調查，它佔全球交易量的30％以上。由於其高流動性和高效率，主要的貨幣交易都在倫敦進行，大型銀行的交易櫃檯也通常位於倫敦。與其他市場相比，因為市場參與者人數眾多且交易量巨大，倫敦的外匯市場波動最大。

GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF are suitable for risk-loving traders. The pairs represent an average daily variation of more than 140pips which can generate large profits in a short period of time. These two currency pairs have a large fluctuation because large participants increase trading volume in the European market.

英鎊/日圓和英鎊/瑞士法郎這兩個貨幣對適合偏好風險的交易者。這些貨幣對每天平均波動超過140點，可以在短時間內產生大量利潤。由於大量的參與者增加了歐洲市場的交易量，所以這兩種貨幣對波動很大。

The European market directly connects the U.S. market to the Asian market. Large banks and institutional investors will complete rebalancing of their portfolios at this time and begin to convert their European currency assets into U.S. dollar-denominated assets in preparation for an opening in the U.S. market. These currency pairs show extreme volatility in the European market from the large market participants.

歐洲市場將美國市場與亞洲市場直接相連。大型銀行和機構投資者將在此期間完成其投資組合的再平衡，並開始將其歐洲貨幣資產轉換為以美元計價的資產，準備美國市場開放的時間。因為許多的大型市場參與者，這些貨幣對在歐洲市場顯示出極大的波動性。

Investors who can tolerate more risks have a wide range of choices. EUR/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/USD and USD/CHF (which have an average of 100 pips of volatility) are good currency pairs to choose from because of their high volatility and many opportunities to enter the market.

對於可以承擔更多風險的投資者有更多種的選擇。如歐元/美元，美元/加幣，英鎊/美元和美元/瑞士法郎（平均波動率達100點）是很好的貨幣對，因為它們波動性高且有很多進入市場的機會。 

Investors who do not prefer risk may choose NZD/USD, AUD/USD, EUR/CHF, and AUD/JPY with an average variation of around 50 pips. These currency pairs tend to move according to fundamentals and are less likely to lose money due to speculative daily traders.

不喜歡風險的投資者可以選擇紐幣/美金，澳幣/美金，歐元/瑞士法郎和澳幣/日幣，平均變動幅度約為50點。這些貨幣對較依據基本面來波動，並且不太因投機性日常交易者而遭受損失。

 

重疊時區Overlapping Time Zone,

美國和歐洲市場。US and European Markets.

 

美國東部時間晚上8點到中午 8 o’clock to noon (Eastern US time)

 

The foreign exchange market tends to move most actively during times when the U.S. and European markets overlap. The volatility between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. takes about 70% of the average fluctuation of the exchange rate traded in the European market and 80% of the average fluctuation in the U.S. If traders can’t trade all they long, but expecting price fluctuations and volatility to be high, this is the most appropriate trading time when the time zones of the U.S. and Europe overlap.

在美國和歐洲市場重疊的時期是外匯市場最活躍的期間。晚上10點至凌晨2點之間的變動性，在歐洲市場平均匯率波動率大約為70％的，在美國的平均匯率波動率則約為80％。如果交易者不是做長期交易，當美國和歐洲的時區重疊時，預估在此期間價格波動性會很高，是最合適的交易時間。

 

重疊時區Overlapping Time Zone,

歐洲和亞洲市場。European and Asian Markets.

東部時間2到4點  2 to 4 o’clock (Eastern Time)

 

Since the time zone where Asia and Europe overlap is the morning time in Europe, there are not many transactions, so the volume of trading is minimal compared to other times. Also, the actual overlapping time is short. Because trading volume is not high during this time, risk-loving traders may spend time waiting for breakthroughs in the European market, taking a nap until the U.S. market opens, or formulating position strategies (a type of trading strategy that makes a profit from long-term buying or selling).

由於亞洲和歐洲重疊的時間是歐洲的早上，因此相比其他時間，交易量較小，且實際的重疊時間很短。也因為這段時間的交易量不高，所以愛好風險的交易者可能會花時間等待到歐洲市場的突破點，或小睡一會直到美國市場開盤，或者制定頭寸策略（一種可以從多頭交易買賣中獲利的交易策略）。

Technical analysis and fundamental analysis are mainly used methods to analyze financial markets. The fundamental analysis predicts future price movements based on fundamental economic conditions, but technical analysis uses past price data and chart.

技術分析和基礎分析是分析金融市場的主要方法。基本面分析根據基本經濟狀況預測未來價格走勢，但技術分析則使用過去的價格數據和圖表。

Controversy has continued over which methodologies are more successful since technological analysis began to be used. Traders who focus on short-term trading prefer to use technical analysis because the main strategy focuses on prices. Traders who focus on medium-term tradings, on the other hand, tend to use fundamental analysis to evaluate the future value of any currency as well as its appropriate value.

自從開始使用技術分析後，哪種方法更好的爭論一直繼續著。專注於短期交易的交易者更喜歡使用技術分析，因為此策略主要關注在價格。另一方面，專注於在中長期交易的交易者傾向於使用基本面分析來評估任何貨幣的未來價值及其適當價值。

Before implementing successful trading strategies, it is important to understand what causes currency movements in the foreign exchange market. The best strategies may be a mixture of fundamental and technical analysis. This situation occurs in both technical patterns and fundamentals.

在實施成功的交易策略之前，最重要的是需要了解導致外匯市場貨幣波動的原因。最好的策略是綜合基礎分析和技術分析。這種情況在技術模式和基礎方面均會發生。

There can be drastic changes in price movements, especially with economic news releases. Therefore, technical traders should be aware of important economic indicators and situations in which the announcement is scheduled, and fundamentals traders should be aware of the critical technical levels that the market is largely focused on.

價格走勢可能發生劇烈變化，尤其是在發布經濟新聞時。因此，技術交易員應了解重要的經濟指標和計劃在何時發佈公告的情形，基本面交易員應了解市場主要關注的關鍵技術水平。

 

使用基本面分析 Using Fundamentals Analysis

 

Fundamental analysis focuses on analyzing economic, social and political influences that drive demand and supply. Using fundamental analysis as a trading tool implies to take account of various macroeconomic indicators such as growth rates, interest rates, infrastructure, and unemployment. Fundamental analysts will combine all of this information to evaluate current and future price movement sand combining all the information requires a lot of work and analysis.

基本面分析著重於帶動供需，分析經濟，社會和政治的影響。使用基本面分析作為交易工具，意味著要考慮各種宏觀經濟指標，例如增長率，利率，基礎設施和失業率。基本面分析師將結合所有這些資訊來評估當前和未來的價格波動，結合所有這些信息需要大量的分析工作。

Traders using fundamental analysis should be constantly aware of news and announcements that could lead to potential economic, social, and political changes. All traders must be thoroughly familiar with the overall economic conditions before trading, which is particularly important for traders making trading decisions based on news events. Although the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions are always important, the impact on EUR/USD may not be significant if the movement of interest rates is already fully reflected in the market.

使用基本面分析的交易者應經常注意可能導致潛在的經濟，社會和政治變化的新聞和公告。所有交易者在交易前必須完全熟悉整體經濟狀況，這對於根據新聞事件做出交易決定的交易者尤其重要。儘管美聯準的貨幣政策決定很重要，但如果利率波動已經在市場中得到充分展現，則對歐元/美元的影響可能不大。

The exchange rate is basically driven by supply and demand. In other words, most fundamentally strong currencies are due to demands. Regardless of whether demand is for hedging, speculation, or currency conversion, the exchange rate’s actual movement is based on the currency’s need. When the supply exceeds, the value of the currency decreases. Supply and demand are the real determinants in predicting future price movements.

匯率基本上由供求需關係決定。換句話說，最基本的強勢貨幣是源於需求。無論需求是對沖，投機還是貨幣轉換，匯率的實際變動都取決於貨幣的需求。當供應超過時，貨幣的價值下降。供需是預測未來價格走勢的真正決定因素。

However, predicting supply and demand is not as simple as many people think. Many factors affect the net demand and supply of a currency, such as capital flows, trade flows, speculations, and hedgings. For example, from 1999 to 2001, the Internet and stock market boom in the United States led to foreign investors’ inflow, and the U.S. dollar strengthened against the euro. Depending on the demand for U.S. assets, foreign investors would sell their currencies and buy U.S. dollars.

但是，預測供需並不像許多人想像的那麼簡單，有許多因素影響貨幣的淨需求和供給，例如資本流動，貿易流動，投機和對沖。例如，從1999年到2001年，美國互聯網和股票市場的繁榮導致外國投資者大量湧入，而美元兌歐元則走強。根據對美國資產的需求，外國投資者將出售其貨幣併購買美元。

When geopolitical uncertainties rose since late 2001, the U.S. began to cut interest rates, and foreign investors sold U.S. assets to move toward higher yields. As a result, the dollar’s supply increased, while the dollar’s value fell compared to other major currencies.

自2001年末以來，地緣政治不確定性上升時，美國開始降低利率，外國投資者出售了美國資產以提高收益率。結果，與其他主要貨幣相比，美元的供給增加，而美元的價值卻下降了。

The intention to buy a currency or the possibility of funding for that currency is a major factor that could affect the direction of that currency’s value. These were the main determinants of the U.S. dollar value between 2002 and 2005. The capital outflow trend announced by the U.S. Treasury Department is one of the most important economic indicators for market forecasts.

購買貨幣的目的或為該貨幣籌集資金的潛在價值是影響該貨幣價值方向的主要因素。這些是2002年至2005年美元價值的主要決定因素。美國財政部宣布的資本外流趨勢是市場預測最重要的經濟指標之一。

要考慮的因素！ The Factors to Consider!

1. 資本和貿易流 The Flow of Capital and Trade

Capital and trade flows form the balance of payments, which allows entities to measure the size of demand for a currency over a period of time. Theoretically, the international balance of payments must be zero for a currency’s current value to remain the same. A negative balance of payments indicates that capital outflows from a country’s economy are faster than inflows, so its currency value should theoretically fall.

資本和貿易流形成國際收支平衡，這使實體能夠測量一段時間內對貨幣的需求量。從理論上講，國際貨幣的國際收支必須為零，以使貨幣的當前價值保持不變。國際收支負數表示一國經濟的資本流出比資本流快入，因此從理論上來說其貨幣價值應下降。

This is especially important in the current situation where the U.S. continues to record a huge trade deficit without sufficient foreign capital inflow to bridge the trade deficit. The Japanese yen could be another good example.

在當前情況下，美國持續巨額的貿易赤字，沒有足夠的外資流入來縮短貿易赤字。相反地，日元是另一個很好的例子。

Japan is one of the largest exporters in the world that has a huge trade surplus. As a result, despite the zero interest rate policy, which hinders the increase in capital inflows, the yen tends to remain strong on the other side due to the trade surplus.

日本是世界上擁有巨大貿易順差的最大出口國之一。結果，儘管採取零利率政策阻擋了資本流入的增長，但由於貿易順差，日元成為強勢貨幣之一。

Capital Flows measure the net size of the currency purchased or sold on an equity investment. Capital account surplus means that foreign capital inflows of real investment or portfolio investment in a country exceed outflows. The capital account deficit indicates that real investment or portfolio investment into overseas assets by domestic investors outweighs capital inflows by foreign investors.

資本流衡量通過股權投資購買或出售的貨幣的淨額。資本帳戶盈餘意味著一國實際投資或證券投資的外國資本流入超過流出。資本帳戶赤字則說明，國內投資者對海外資產實際的投資或證券投資大於外國投資者的資本流入。

The Flow of Real Investment is a corporate investment in real estate and manufacturing. It also includes foreign direct investments, such as local business acquisitions. These factors are causing foreign companies to sell their own currencies and buy foreign currencies, resulting in changes in the foreign exchange market.

實際投資流是對房地產和製造業的企業投資，還包括外國直接投資，例如收購本地企業。這些因素導致外國公司需出售當地貨幣來購買外幣，導致外匯市場發生變化。

This is particularly important in global acquisitions because it has more cash flow than stocks. The real investment flow represents a fundamental change in actual direct investment activities. And direct flows can change each country’s financial health and growth potential.

這在全球收購中尤為重要，因為它的現金流比股票多。實際投資流量代表實際直接投資活動的根本變化。直接流動可以改變每個國家的財務健康狀況和增長潛力。

Changes in local laws to attract foreign investment can also accelerate the flow of real investment. For example, China’s entry into the World Trade Organization eased laws on foreign investment. Global companies are flooding into China,  seeing China’s cheap labour and attractive investment revenue opportunities. From the foreign exchange market perspective, it is recommended that foreign companies sell their currencies and buy Chinese yuan to raise funds for Chinese investment.

修改當地法律來吸引外資也可以加速實際投資的流動。例如，中國加入世界貿易組織（WTO）放寬有關外國投資的法律。跨國公司湧入中國，看到中國廉價的勞動力和誘人的投資收益機會。從外匯市場的角度來看，建議外國公司出售其貨幣來購買人民幣為中國投資籌集資金。

 

2.進出口比較方式 A Comparative Measure of Exports and Imports

 

Trade flows are the base of all international trade. A country’s investment environment is the main determinant of its currency value, and its net trade balance is calculated according to its trade flow. Net exporters whose exports exceed imports will have a net trade surplus.

貿易量是所有國際貿易的基礎。一個國家的投資環境是其貨幣價值決定的主要因素，其淨貿易差額是根據其貿易量計算的。出口超過進口的淨額為貿易順差出口國。

The currency value of net exporters is likely to rise because the demand for their currencies is higher than the demand for selling in terms of international trade. Overseas customers interested in purchasing exported products and services must first purchase the currency, which increases the demand for the exporting country’s currency.

貿易順差出口國的貨幣價值可能會上升，因為對其貨幣的需求高於在國際貿易的出售需求。有興趣購買出口產品和服務的海外客戶必須先購買貨幣，這增加了對出口國貨幣的需求。

Countries with imports exceeding exports will show a trade deficit, which serves as a potential factor in lowering the currency’s value. For import purposes, the importing countries must sell their own currencies to buy the countries’ currencies that sell goods or services. For this reason, if the size of imports increases, this can serve as a factor that leads to a fall in the value of the currency.

進口超過出口的國家會出現貿易逆差，這是降低貨幣價值的潛在因素。出於進口目的，進口國必須出售自己的貨幣才能購買該國出售商品或服務。因此，如果進口量增加，則導致貨幣價值下降的一個因素。

 

3.股票市場 The Stock market

 

With the development of technology, capital movement has become very easy, making it possible to invest in stock markets worldwide.

隨著技術的發展，資本的流動變得非常容易，增加在全球股票市場進行投資的機會。

Therefore, the stock market, which is strong anywhere globally, offers ideal investment opportunities for everyone regardless of their geographical location. As a result, a country’s stock market and its currency have a strong correlation. If the stock market rises, investment funds will flow in. On the contrary, a fall in the stock market would allow local investors to seek overseas investment opportunities by disposing of their domestic investments.

因此，全球股票市場提供了最佳的投資機會給世界各地的每個人。一個國家的股票市場與其貨幣之間具有很強的相聯性。如果股市上漲，投資資金將流入。相反，股市下跌將使本地投資者可以通過處理國內投資來尋求海外投資機會。

However, this correlation has changed since the Tech Bubble burst in the United States. The reason is that the correlation between the U.S. stock market and the U.S. dollar has decreased as foreign investors continue to be relatively hedging. Nevertheless, because these correlations still exist, all traders continue to monitor the global market’s performance and performance to find cross-market revenue opportunities.

但是，自從美國的互聯網泡沫發生後，這種相關性已經產生變化。由於外國投資者繼續相對對沖，美國股票市場與美元之間的相關性開始下降。然而，這些相關性仍然存在，因此所有交易者都將繼續監視全球市場的表現，找出跨市場的收入機會。

 

4. 債券市場 The Bond Market

 

Just as the stock market correlates with the foreign exchange market, the bond market also correlates with the foreign exchange market. In times of high uncertainty worldwide, the bond investment can be beautiful due to bonds’ inherent safety. As a result, foreign investment will be made into a country with attractive bond investment opportunities, leading to its currency appreciation.

正如股票市場與外匯市場相關，債券市場也與外匯市場相關。在全球不確定性很高的時期，由於債券的固有安全性，債券投資可能會較佳。因此，外國投資將投入具有誘人債券投資機會的國家，從而使其貨幣升值。

A valid way for recognizing capital flows to the bond market is the short-term/medium-term return on government bonds. It may need to keep an eye on the spread difference between the yield on U.S. 10-year government bonds and foreign bonds yield. This is because international investors tend to invest their capital in assets in countries with the highest return. If U.S. assets were one of the highest-yielding assets, more investment would occur in U.S. financial instruments, which would soon result in a rise in the U.S. dollar. Investors may also use short-term returns, such as a two-year national spread, to measure the short-term flow of international capital.

確認資本流入債券市場的有效方法是政府債券的短期/中期收益。需要留意美國10年期政府債券收益率與外國債券收益率之間的點差差異。這是因為國際投資者傾向於將其資本投資於回報率最高資產的國家。如果美國資產是收益最高的資產之一，則更多的投資在美國金融工具上，導致美元很快升值。投資者還可以使用像是兩年期國債的短期收益來衡量國際資本的短期流動。

In addition to the yield on long-term government bonds, short-term government bond futures prices can also be used to predict the movement of U.S. funds. This is because short-term government bond futures reflect expectations for the Fed’s interest rate policy in the future. Meanwhile, the Euro Interbank Offered Rate (EURIBOR) interest rate futures indicate future policy movements as well.

除了長期政府債券的收益率之外，短期政府債券期貨價格也可以用來預測美國資金的動向。 因為政府短期債券期貨反映了對美聯儲未來利率政策的預期。 同時，歐洲銀行間同業拆放利率（EURIBOR）利率期貨也表明了未來的政策動向。

 

5. PPP，購買力平價 PPP, Purchasing Power Parity

 

Relative prices determine the exchange rate by constructing a similar basket of goods between the two countries. On the very basis of this idea, the theory of purchasing power assessment is established. Changes in the country’s inflation rate should be balanced by the opposite change in the country’s exchange rate. Therefore, according to this theory, if a country’s prices rise due to inflation, its exchange rate must fall.

通過類似的商品在兩國之間的相對價格來構建確定匯率。在此觀點的基礎上，建立出購買力平價理論。該國通貨膨脹率的變化應與該國匯率有相反變化來相互平衡。因此，根據這個理論，如果一國的價格因通貨膨脹而上漲，其匯率必須下降。

The basket of goods and services priced for purchasing power assessment is a sample of all goods and services included in gross domestic product. These goods and services include consumer goods and consumer services, government services, facilities and construction projects.

作為購買力評估而定價的商品和服務的樣本是包含國內生產毛額中所有商品和服務。這些商品和服務包括消費品和消費服務，政府服務，設施和建設項目。

To take a closer look, consumer goods include food, beverages, tobacco, clothes, shoes, monthly rent, water supply, gas, electricity, medicine and services, furniture, home appliances, personal transportation equipment, fuel, transportation services, entertainment and cultural services, telephone services, home appliances and repair services.

仔細觀察一下，消費品包括食品、飲料、煙草、衣服、鞋子、月租、水費，天然氣、電力、藥品和服務，家具、家用電器、個人運輸設備、燃料、運輸服務、娛樂和文化服務，電話服務、家用設備和維修服務。

One of the most famous examples of PPP is the Economist’s Big Mac Index. The Big Mac PPP is an exchange rate calculated by assuming that the Big Mac hamburger’s price in the United States is the same as that of other countries. The comparison between the PPI exchange rate and other countries’ actual exchange rate indicates whether the country’s currency value is undervalued or highly valued.

PPP中最著名的例子是《經濟學人》的大麥克指數。 “大麥克”購買力平價是一種匯率，假設該大麥克漢堡在美國的價格與其他國家/地區的價格相同。 PPI匯率與其他國家的實際匯率之間的比較說明該國家的貨幣價值是被低估還是被高估。

The OECD releases a more formal index. The OECD issues a table showing the price levels of major developed countries. Each column represents the number of monetary units required by each country on the list specified to purchase the same representative consumer goods and service basket. The cost of purchasing 100 units of each representative bundle in a country is stated in that country’s currency.

經合組織發布了更正式的指標。經合組織發布了一張表格，顯示主要發達國家的價格水平。每列代表指定購買相同代表性消費品和服務商品的清單上，每個國家所需的貨幣單位數。在一個國家/地區購買100個的數量作為一個單位的費用，以該國家/地區的貨幣表示。

It publishes a chart that compares a country’s PPP with its actual exchange rate on a weekly bases to reflect the current exchange rate. Also, it reveals predictions in PPP approximately twice a year. Although PPP forecasts come from studies conducted by the OECD, they should not be considered conclusive. Due to differences in different computational methods, the PPP exchange rate will be different among various entities.

此圖表將每週進行比較一個國家的購買力平價與其實際匯率，來反映當前匯率。此外，它透漏了大約每年兩次的PPP預測。儘管購買力平價的預測來自經合組織的研究，但不應將其視為最終的結論。由於計算方法不同，各個體系之間的PPP匯率也會有所不同。

 

6. 利率評估 Interest Rate Evaluation

 

The theory of interest rate evaluation says that if there is a difference in interest rates between the two countries, the difference is reflected in premium or discount on the leading exchange rate to prevent risk-free trade.

利率評估理論認為，如果兩國之間的利率存在差異，則該差異會反映在主要匯率的溢價或貼現中，以防止無風險貿易。

For example, if U.S. interest rates are 3 per cent and Japanese interest rates are 1 per cent, the U.S. dollar should fall 2 per cent against the Japanese yen in calculating the forward exchange rate to prevent risk-free trading.

例如，如果美國利率為3％，日本利率為1％，則在計算遠期匯率時，美元兌日元應下跌2％，以防止無風險交易。

This future exchange rate is reflected in the forward exchange rate calculated today. The forward exchange rate of the dollar is called the discount. This is because buying the yen at the leading U.S. dollar exchange rate can buy the Japanese yen less than buying it at the spot exchange rate. This state of the yen is called the premium.

該未來匯率反映在今天計算的遠期匯率中。美元的遠期匯率稱為貼現。因為以美元為主的匯率買入日元所能買到的日元要比以即期匯率買入日元要少，這種日元的狀態稱為溢價。

The theory of interest rate evaluation has not been working well lately. This is because high-interest currencies have frequently risen due to the central bank’s decision to slow economic activity through interest rate hikes, regardless of risk-free profit-taking.

利率評估理論最近還沒有很好地發揮作用。由於中央銀行決定通過加息來放慢經濟活動，因此高息貨幣經常上漲，不管無風險的見利拋售。

 

7. 實際利率差異模型 Real Interest Rate Difference Model

 

In the theory of real interest rate differences, the movement of exchange rates is determined by a country’s interest rate. The currencies of countries that maintain high-interest rates should remain strong, while those that maintain low-interest rates should remain weak.

在實際利率差異理論中，匯率的變動取決於一個國家的利率。保持高利率的國家的貨幣處於強勢，而保持低利率的國家的貨幣則處於弱勢。

If a country raises interest rates, foreign investors will be attracted to the currency in terms of return and buy the country’s currency. One of the key factors in determining the strength of the exchange rate’s response to changes in interest rates in the model is the expectation of the continuation of changes in interest rates. When the interest rate hikes, which is expected to last for the next five years, has a greater impact on the exchange rate than it is expected to last for a year.

如果一個國家提高利率，外國投資者將被該貨幣回報率吸引，併購買該國的貨幣。在模型中確定匯率對利率變化的反應強度的關鍵因素之一是對利率變化持續的期望。預計未來五年將持續的加息，對匯率的影響將比預期持續一年的影響更大。

There has been debate among international economists over whether there is a strong and statistically significant link between a country’s interest rate change and currency prices. The main weakness of this model is that it does not take into account a country’s current account and instead relies on capital flows through its capital account.

國際經濟學家之間一直在爭論一個國家的利率變化和貨幣價格之間是否存在緊密統計上的關聯。這種模式主要的缺點是，它沒有考慮到一個國家的經常帳戶，而是依靠其資本帳戶中的資本流動。

The interest rate model tends to overemphasize capital flows at the expense of numerous other factors such as political stability, inflation, and economic growth. Assuming that these factors are absent, the interest rate model can be very useful. This is because there is an extremely logical reason that investors will naturally be attracted to invest that pay higher rewards.

利率模型往往過分強調資本流動，而忽略其他許多的因素，例如政治穩定性、通貨膨脹和經濟成長。假設不存在這些因素，利率模型將非常有用。因為這是一個非常合乎邏輯的理由，投資者自然會被吸引來投入更高報酬的投資。

 

8. 貨幣模型 Currency Model

 

The Currency Model is the theory that the country’s monetary policy determines the exchange rate. According to the model, the currencies of countries that have been implementing stable monetary policies for a certain period of time are strong and the currencies of countries with inconsistent or excessive expansionist policies show a decline in value.

貨幣模型是國家貨幣政策決定匯率的理論。根據該模型，在一定時期內穩定執行貨幣政策的國家貨幣變得強勢，而過度擴張主義或不一致政策國家的貨幣則貶值。

1. 一國貨幣的貨幣量。The volume of money in a country’s currency.

2.國家未來的貨幣量。 The nation’s future monetary volume.

3. 該國貨幣數量的增長率。The growth rate of the country’s monetary volume.

These factors are key to understanding currency trends that can change the exchange rate. For example, Japan’s economy has been in recession for the past decade. The interest rate level was almost zero, and the fiscal deficit prevented the government from increasing spending to get out of the recession. As a result, there was only one way that the Japanese government could revive Japan’s economy. It’s printing more money! By buying stocks and bonds, Japan’s central bank increased its currency volume, resulting in inflation that caused the exchange rate to change!

這些因素是了解貨幣趨勢的關鍵可以改變匯率。例如，過去十年來日本經濟一直處於衰退狀態。利率幾乎為零，財政赤字阻止政府增加支出以擺脫衰退。結果，日本政府只有通過印更多的錢來振興日本的經濟。通過購買股票和債券，日本中央銀行增加了貨幣的流通量，導致通貨膨脹，匯率產生了變化！

This is an example of implementing an excessive policy of increasing the money supply that the currency model can most successfully be applied. One of several ways a country can prevent a sharp decline in its currency value is by implementing a monetary tightening policy.

這是實施過度增加貨幣供應量的政策案例，是貨幣模型中典型案例。國家可以通過實施貨幣緊縮政策來防止其貨幣價值急劇下跌。

Another example is when the Hong Kong dollar was under attack by speculators during the Asian financial crisis. Hong Kong authorities have raised interest rates to 300 per cent to keep the U.S. dollar-linked. This method worked perfectly. Skyrocketing interest rates have allowed speculators to be kicked out. On the other hand, the downside was the risk that the Hong Kong economy could fall into a recession. Eventually, however, the U.S. dollar peg system was maintained, and the currency model worked.

另一個例子是，在亞洲金融危機期間，港幣受到投機者的攻擊。香港當局將利率提高至300％來綁定美元。這種方法效果很好。飆升的利率將投機者趕出市場。另一方面，卻也使香港經濟陷入可能衰退的風險。但最終，美元綁住匯率制得以維持，貨幣模型發揮了作用。

 

9.貨幣替代模型 Currency Substitution Model

 

The currency replacement model should be considered an extension of the currency model because it considers the investment flow of a country. It is assumed that the movement of the private and public sector portfolios from one country to another has a significant impact on the exchange rate. The act of individuals changing assets from their own and foreign currencies is called currency replacement.

貨幣替代模型應被視為貨幣模型的延伸，因為它考慮了一個國家的投資流量。假設私人和公共部門投資組合從一個國家轉移到另一個國家對匯率有重大的影響。個人將自己的本錢和外幣更改為資產的行為稱為貨幣替代。

Combining this model and currency model shows evidence that changes in expectations for a country’s currency volume can have a decisive impact on its exchange rate. Investors will be looking at the currency model data carefully and expect changes in the flow of funds, resulting in changes in the exchange rate, which results in investment execution, making the currency model predictable on its own. Investors who support this theory use a currency replacement model as a complement to the currency model.

將此模型與貨幣模型結合使用可證明，一國貨幣總量的預期變化可能對其匯率產生重要的影響。投資者將緊盯貨幣模型的數據，並期望資金流發生變化，來改變匯率，進而進行投資，從貨幣模型數據中自行預測趨勢。支持此理論的投資者使用貨幣替代模型作為貨幣模型的補充。

 

總結 Conclusion

 

The importance of economic indicators, for both fundamental and technical traders, should never be underestimated. There are many people who claim to be technical analysts, but in the foreign exchange market,  almost every pro-traders has included economic indicators as an important factor in their trading strategies.

經濟指標對基本交易員和技術交易員皆很重要性。有很多人聲稱自己是技術分析師，但在外匯市場上，幾乎每個交易者都將經濟指標作為他們交易策略中的重要因素。

For example, a good technical analyst who focuses only on range trading (a strategy to buy at a low price and sell at a high price) will probably choose to leave the market without trading on the day of the release of economic indicators that trigger a very large movement in the market, such as Nonfarm payrolls (NFP).

例如，一個只專注於區間交易（以低價買入並以高價賣出的策略）的優秀技術分析師會選擇在經濟指標發布日，市場中可能會觸發非常大的變動，所以不進行交易就離開市場。例如非農就業數據（NFP）。

Traders who focus on technical breakouts (a strategy to trade on top or bottom breakthroughs) will, on the contrary, want to trade only on the day when important economic indicators that trigger price movements are released. For those who trade in automated systems, it is especially important to add a fundamental analysis.

相反的，專注於技術突破（突破高點或低點的交易策略）的交易者只想在觸發價格波動的重要經濟指標發布日進行交易。對於那些使用自動化系統進行交易的人，添加基礎分析尤為重要。

This is because turning on or turning off their strategies based on the economic indicators to be released could potentially have a significant impact on the overall performance of their trading strategies. Fundamental traders tend to perform better when economic indicators are released. The economic indicators that have the greatest impact on the exchange rate are, of course, the U.S. economic indicators. Nearly 90% of all currency tradings are made in exchange for US dollars.

因為根據要發布的經濟指標來進行策略可能會對他們交易策略的整體績效產生重大影響。當發布經濟指標時，基本交易者往往表現更好。所有貨幣交易中，有90％是用美元兌換，所以對匯率影響最大的經濟指標是美國的經濟指標。

In other words, the U.S. dollar is the benchmark or relative currency for most transactions. However, not all economic indicators affect it. Some economic indicators are very important and may have a lasting effect on the exchange rate, while others may not be of general importance.

換句話說，美元是大多數交易的基准或相關貨幣。但是，並非所有經濟指標都會被其影響。一些經濟指標非常重要，可能會對匯率產生長久的影響，而另一些指標可能並不重要。