Before starting trading forex, every trader must understand some of the key events that happened in the past. These events are repeatedly mentioned by many professional foreign-exchange traders even today.
在開始外匯交易之前，每個交易者需要了解過去發生的一些關鍵事件。即使在今日，許多專業的外匯交易員也常常提到這些事件。
Bretton Woods
Dollar as the world’s key currency.
布雷頓森林
美元是世界主要貨幣。
In July 1944, a new treaty was needed to control the international economy after World War II. Representatives from 44 countries gathered in Breton Woods, New Hampshire, the United States. Many agreed that instability in the global economy was one of the leading causes of the war and that the international community should prevent such instability in the future.
1944年7月，第二次世界大戰後，需要一項新條約來控制國際經濟。來自44個國家的代表聚集在美國新罕布什爾州的布雷頓森林。許多人都認同，全球經濟的不穩定是戰爭的主要原因之一，國際社會今後應防止這種不穩定。
The treaty, drafted by renowned economists John Maynard Keynes and Harry Dexter White, was proposed to support Britain before and after the war as part of the United States’ Lend-Lease Act.
該條約是由著名經濟學家約翰·梅納德·凱恩斯和哈里·德克斯特·懷特提議作為美國《租借法案》的一部分，在戰爭前後支持英國。
The Lend-Lease Act of the United States was enacted in March 1941 to provide supplies to the United Kingdom, the Soviet Union, France, and China, where the United States was allied. After several rounds of negotiations, the Bretton Woods Agreement was signed, with the following essential details:
美國《租借法案》於1941年3月頒布，旨在向與美國結盟的英國，蘇聯，法國和中國提供物資。經過幾輪談判，簽署了《布雷頓森林協定》，其中包含以下幾個重要細節：
1. To promote fair trade and harmonization of the international economy, an international organization shall be established.
1.為了促進公平貿易和國際經濟的協調，應建立一個國際組織。
2. Adopt a fixed exchange rate system between currencies.
2.貨幣之間採用固定的匯率制度。
3. Designate the U.S. dollar as the world’s key currency by allowing a convertible between gold and the U.S. dollar.
3.允許黃金和美元之間可自由兌換，將美元指定為世界主要貨幣。
Only the first of the above three are valid to this day. Organisations formed as a direct result of Bretton Woods, including the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), remain to this day to play an essential role in the development and regulation of the international economy. For example, with the Brenton Woods system’s implementation, the IMF fixed the gold at $35 per ounce and introduced a fixed exchange rate system based on a fixed exchange rate system between each currency.
上述三個中只有第一個至今有效。布雷頓森林體系直接促成的組織，包括國際貨幣基金組織，世界銀行和關稅暨貿易總協定（GATT），至今仍在國際經濟的發展和調節中發揮重要作用 。例如，隨著布倫頓森林體系的實施，國際貨幣基金組織將黃金定為每盎司35美元，並根據每種貨幣之間的固定匯率制度引入了固定匯率制度。
Even after the Bretton Woods system’s end, the IMF worked closely with the World Bank (established under the Bretton Woods system). These two organisations regularly contribute funds to developing countries, helping developing countries develop their public infrastructure. They are now operating to support a sound commercial economy that can contribute to the international stage. The World Bank and the IMF are also working closely with GATT to ensure these developing countries’ opportunities to trade equally and fairly with their industrialised counterparts.
甚至在布雷頓森林體系結束後，國際貨幣基金組織仍與世界銀行（布雷頓森林體系下建立的）密切合作。這兩個組織定期向發展中國家捐款，幫助發展中國家發展其公共基礎設施。他們正在努力支援，成為對國際中做出貢獻的良好商業經濟。世界銀行和國際貨幣基金組織也正與關稅暨貿易總協定緊密合作，以確保這些發展中國家有機會與工業化國家進行公平、公正的貿易。
GATT was initially established as a temporary organisation but is now operating to encourage the dismantling of trade barriers such as tariffs and quotas. The Bretton Woods Agreement took effect from 1944 to 1971, but to secure the Bretton Woods system’s flaws, President Nixon proposed the Smithsonian Agreement.
關稅暨貿易總協定最初是作為一個臨時建立的組織，但現在正在鼓勵取消關稅和配額等貿易障礙。 《布雷頓森林協定》生效於1944年至1971年之間，但為補足布雷頓森林體系的不足，尼克森總統提出了《史密森尼協定》。
However, the Smithsonian Agreement had the same critical weakness as the Bretton Woods Agreement. It had maintained a fixed exchange rate system without acknowledging the gold against the U.S. dollar. This fixed exchange rate system failed to accommodate international demands for a sustained U.S. trade deficit and a weak dollar. As a result, the Smithsonian Agreement did not last long.
然而《史密森尼協定》與《布雷頓森林協定》都一樣有嚴重的缺點，就是它一直維持固定匯率制度，沒有承認黃金對美元的匯率。這種固定匯率制度，對於美國貿易的赤字和美元持續的走弱，無法滿足國際上的需求，所以《史密森尼協定》並沒有持續很長的時間。
Ultimately, the exchange rate system evolved into a free-floating exchange rate market where demand and supply determined its value. However, this has led to several currency crises and increased volatility between currencies. As a result, the market is automatically controlled, and the appropriate value of the currency is formed in the market without any special restrictions.
最終，匯率制度演變為自由浮動的匯率市場，需求關係決定其價值。可卻導致了幾次貨幣危機，並增加貨幣之間的波動性。結果，市場自動被控制，並且在市場上形成了適當的貨幣價值，沒有任何特別的限制。
The Bretton Woods has significantly contributed to changing the U.S. dollar’s perceptions on the international economical stage. While the British Pound is still showing considerable strength and the Euro is under the new spotlight for international trade as an innovative currency, the dollar has been chosen as the world’s key currency for the time being. This can be attributed mainly to the Brenton Woods Agreement, which guaranteed its credibility and accessibility based on the dollar to gold transition system. The Bretton Woods system is a policy of the past, but the impact on the U.S. dollar and the international economy remains significant to this day.
布雷頓森林體系對於美元成為國際經濟舞台上主要貨幣有很大的貢獻。儘管英鎊仍有強大的實力，而歐元作為一個創新的貨幣也已成為國際貿易的新焦點，但美元仍是世界主要貨幣，都要歸因於《布倫頓森林協定》，此協定在美元兌換黃金的變遷制度中展現其可信性和可及性。布雷頓森林體系雖是過去的政策，但迄今對美元和國際經濟仍然很大的影響。
The End of Bretton Woods
The Birth of Free Market Capitalism
布雷頓森林的尾端
自由市場資本主義的誕生
On August 15, 1971, the Brenton Woods system officially ceased to fix the currency’s value to gold prices. A new form of system emerged for a while before the Brenton Woods system disappeared, but the Brenton Woods system officially came to an end. The value of currencies is fixed at the price of gold, and the structure of a limited exchange rate fluctuation in the range of only one per cent disappears. Instead, the fair value of currency1 is determined by free-market economic behaviour such as trade and direct foreign investment.
1971年8月15日，布倫頓森林體系正式將貨幣的價值停止固定在黃金價格上。在布倫頓森林體系正式告一段落之前，一種新的體系出現了一段時間。貨幣的價值固定在黃金的價格上，有限的匯率波動（僅在百分之一的範圍內）的結構消失了。替代的是按市值計價1貨幣由自由市場經濟行為（例如貿易和外國直接投資）決定。
U.S. President Nixon was confident that the end of the Bretton Woods system would bring a better new era for the international economy. However, he was not a free market believer who believed that the market could value the currency legally and freely. Like most economists, President Nixon also determined that a completely unorganised foreign exchange market would lead to a competitive devaluation, an obstacle to international trade and investment. The outcome predicted by President Nixon and his economic advisory committee was a global economic slowdown.
美國總統尼克森相信布雷頓森林體系的終結將為國際經濟帶來更好的新紀元。但是，他不是自由市場的信奉者，他認為市場可以合法，自由地對貨幣進行估價。像大多數經濟學家一樣，尼克森總統還認為，無組織的外匯市場將導致競爭性貶值，成為國際貿易和投資的障礙。尼克森總統及其經濟諮詢委員會預測全球經濟將放緩。
A few months later, the committee signed the Smithsonian Agreement. The Smithsonian Convention, praised by President Nixon as the “Greatest monetary agreement in the world’s history”, sought to maintain a fixed exchange rate system without gold. The Bretton Woods system’s key difference is that the dollar’s value can fluctuate within the range of 2.25% (which allows only within 1% of the Brenton Woods system).
幾個月後，委員會簽署了《史密森尼協定》。史密森尼公約被尼克森總統稱讚為“歷史上世界最大的貨幣協議”，旨在維持沒有黃金的固定匯率制度。與布雷頓森林體系的主要區別在於，美元的價值可以在2.25％的範圍內波動（在布雷頓森林體系中僅1％)。
Eventually, the Smithsonian Agreement turned out to be an intricate system to implement. Gold prices surged to $215 an ounce in the free market, as the exchange rate did not fix gold prices. Moreover, the U.S. trade deficit continued to grow, and from a fundamentals perspective, the U.S. dollar needed to depreciate its currency beyond the 2.25% limit set out in the Smithsonian. Due to the exposure of these problems, the foreign exchange market was forcibly closed in February 1972.
最終，《史密森尼協定》被實施為一個複雜精細的系統。因為匯率並沒有綁定金價，自由市場上的黃金價格飆升至每盎司215美元。此外，美國貿易赤字持續增長，從基本面角度看，美元需要貶值超出史密森尼（Smithsonian）規定的2.25％的限制。這些暴露出許多問題，所以外匯市場於1972年2月被強制關閉。
The foreign exchange market reopened in March 1973, and the Smithsonian Agreement was no longer valid. Since then, the U.S. dollar has not been fixed by any commodity and changes in the exchange rate are not limited to a specific limit, so the U.S. dollar exchange rate has been determined entirely in the market. This naturally provided the U.S. dollar and other currencies with the agility to adapt to a new and rapidly evolving international trade environment. However, it also served as a springboard for unprecedented infrastructure. Crude oil prices soared as conflicts grew in the Middle East. The Brenton Woods and Smithsonian Agreement created stagflation represented by unemployment and inflation in the United States.
1973年3月，外匯市場重新開放，《史密森尼協定》不再有效。從那時起，美元就不再受任何商品的綁定，匯率的變化也不受特定的限制，因此美元匯率已完全由市場決定。讓美元和其他貨幣在迅速發展的國際貿易環境中，可以靈活的調整。但是，它也充當了前所未有的基礎設施的跳板。隨著中東沖突的加劇，原油價格飆升。 《布倫頓森林協定》和《史密森尼協定》在美國造成了失業和通貨膨脹的蕭條。
The stagflation lasted until the early 1980s, when Federal Reserve Governor Paul Volker initiated new economic policies. President Ronald Reagan introduced a new financial plan to help the U.S. dollar return to an average value. Fortunately, the foreign exchange market has made significant progress and achieved various goals. As the U.S. eased regulations for free international trade, investors who wanted to participate in the market showing abundant liquidity and continuous growth flowed into the foreign exchange market. Consequently, the end of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 marked the beginning of a new economic era, represented by international tradings’ liberalisation and the surge in speculative capital influx.
這膨脹性蕭條一直持續到1980年代初，當時美聯儲（Fed）主席保羅·沃爾克（Paul Volker）提出了新的經濟政策。里根（Ronald Reagan）總統提出了一項新的財務計劃，以幫助美元恢復到平均水平。幸運的是，外匯市場取得了顯著的進步，並實現了各種目標。隨著美國對自由國際貿易的管制的放寬，想參與市場的投資者持續增加並在外匯市場中展現充足的流動性。因此，1971年布雷頓森林體系的結束標示一個新的經濟時代的開始，以國際貿易自由化和投機性資本湧入為代表。
Plaza Accord
Devaluation of the U.S. dollar (1985)
廣場協議
美元貶值（1985年）
After the end of the 20th century, the currency market remained completely unregulated except for the ‘invisible hand’ that sought an economic balance by the demand and supply of free-market capitalism, unfortunately, due to unforeseen economic events (OPEC oil crisis, stagflation in the 1970s), supply and demand have become inefficient means to control the currency market on their own.
20世紀末之後，貨幣市場仍然完全不受管制，除了“無形之手”通過自由市場資本主義的供需關係尋求經濟平衡外，不幸的是，由於不可預見的經濟事件（第一次石油危機，1970年代經濟停滯），供需已成為無法有效控制貨幣市場的方式。
It has already been proven that pegging currency values to commodities such as gold, or setting maximum exchange rate fluctuations, is too inflexible to entice economic development. A balance between the system and strict rules has plagued the currency market for the 20th century, and the countries still needed a final solution while progress was being made.
事實證明，將貨幣價值與黃金等商品綁定，或者設定最大匯率波動，對於經濟發展而言過於僵化。制度與嚴格規則之間的平衡一直困擾著20世紀的貨幣市場，而這些國家在取得進展的同時仍需要最終解決方案。
Therefore, in 1985, finance ministers and central bank governors of the world’s largest economies (France, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, and the United States) held a meeting in New York in the hope of reaching a diplomatic agreement to maximise the economic efficiency of the foreign exchange market.
因此在1985年，全球最大經濟體（法國，德國，日本，英國和美國）的財政部長和央行行長在紐約舉行會議，希望達成外交協議，以最大程度地提高外匯市場經濟效率。
In a rare meeting at the Plaza Hotel, international leaders reached an absolute consensus on a particular country and the entire global economy. Inflation was at a shallow level throughout the world. Stagflation in the 1970s was represented by high inflation and low growth, but in contrast, in 1985, the global economy showed low inflation and high growth, moving in a 180-degree turnaround.
這在廣場飯店舉行的會議上，國際領導人就特定國家和整個全球經濟達成了絕對共識，全世界的通貨膨脹率處於較低水平。 1970年代的滯脹表現出高通脹和低成長，但相比之下，1985年，全球經濟表現出低通脹和高成長，呈180度轉變。
Despite substantial economic growth, low inflation continued to lead to low-interest rates favouring developing countries, but risks of protectionist policies such as tariff barriers were becoming visible. Japan and Germany had substantial current account surpluses, while the U.S. had a growing current account deficit. Realistically, this fundamental imbalance could cause severe economic imbalances, leading to a distortion of the foreign exchange market and the international economy.
儘管經濟快速成長，但低通脹繼續導致低利率只對發展中國家有利。然而，像是關稅壁壘等貿易保護主義政策的風險卻日漸明顯。日本和德國等貿易順差的國家，讓美國貿易經常性逆差，赤字持續增加，造成嚴重的經濟失衡，從而導致外匯市場和國際經濟的扭曲。
With the current account imbalance and the resulting protectionist policies emerging, countermeasures were required. Eventually, these led to the conviction that the value of the U.S. dollar was rising more than 80 per cent faster than significant trading partner currencies. As the value of the U.S. dollar rose, the U.S. showed a considerable trade deficit. On the contrary, the depreciation of the U.S. dollar automatically brought about a balance between exports and imports of all other countries, helping to stabilize the international economy more efficiently.
隨著經常帳戶的不平衡而產生保護主義政策的出現，需要採取對策。這些結果使人們相信，美元的升值速度要比重要的貿易夥伴貨幣高出80％以上。隨著美元的價值上升，造成美國的貿易逆差。相反的，美元貶值能自動在所有其他國家的進出口之間實現了平衡，從而有助於更有效地穩定國際經濟。
At the Plaza Hotel conference, the United States persuaded other participants to coordinate multilateral intervention, and the Plaza Accord was reached on September 22, 1985. The agreement was designed to allow the depreciation of the dollar and the appreciation of significant counter-currency.
在廣場飯店會議上，美國說服其他參與者協調多邊干預，並於1985年9月22日達成了廣場協議。此協議旨在允許美元貶值和大量反匯率升值。
Countries have agreed to intervene in the currency market to revise their economic policies and induce the dollar to depreciate. The U.S. agreed to reduce its budget deficit and cut interest rates, while France, Britain, Germany and Japan agreed to raise interest rates. Germany also agreed to implement the tax cut, while Japan decided that the yen’s value would fully reflect the Japanese economy’s fundamental strength.
各國已同意干預貨幣市場以修改其經濟政策並促使美元貶值。美國同意減少預算赤字並降低利率，而法國，英國，德國和日本則同意提高利率。德國還同意實施減稅措施，而日本則決定日元的匯率將充分反映日本經濟的基本面實力。
But the real problem with the actual implementation of the Plaza Accords is that not all countries stuck to their promises. In particular, the U.S. did not fulfil its initial commitment to reduce the budget deficit. Japan has been hit hard by the yen’s rapid appreciation. Japanese exporters have lost competitiveness in overseas markets, which eventually led to a decade of economic stagnation in Japan. On the contrary, the United States achieved significant economic growth and price stability due to the Plaza Accord.
但是，實際實施《廣場協議》的真正問題在於，並非所有國家都恪守諾言。特別是，美國未履行最初減少預算赤字的承諾，日元的快速升值給日本帶來了沉重的打擊，使日本出口商在海外市場上失去了競爭力，導致日本經濟停滯了十年。由於《廣場協議》的實施，美國成為受益者，有顯著的經濟成長和穩定的價格。
The multilateral intervention effect was immediate, and within two years, the dollar fell 46 per cent against the German DEM and 50 per cent against the Japanese YEN. As a result, the U.S. economy has become much more export-driven, while industrial countries such as Germany and Japan have become importing countries. This phenomenon gradually resolved the current account deficit problem, and the international community minimised protectionist policies to the extent that they did not pose a risk to the global economy.
多邊干預的效果是立竿見影的，兩年之內，美元對德國馬克下跌了46％，對日幣下跌了50％。結果，美國經濟變得更加以出口為導向，而德國和日本等工業化國家成為了進口國。這種現象逐漸解決了貿易逆差，赤字問題。國際社會在不給全球經濟帶來風險的情況下將貿易保護主義政策減至最少。
But most importantly, the Plaza Accord has shown the significance of central banks’ role to control exchange rate movements. Since the exchange rate was not fixed, the exchange rate was primarily determined by supply and demand in the market. However, these invisible hands by demand and supply alone were insufficient. The central banks worldwide are responsible for intervening in the foreign exchange market on behalf of the international economy
從《廣場協議》中顯示出中央銀行對於匯率控制變動中作用的重要性。匯率主要取決於市場的供需關係，所以匯率不是固定的。但是，僅憑供需這些無形的手來影響市場是不夠的，世界各地的中央銀行代表著國際經濟，也負責干預外匯市場。
George Soros
The man who surrendered the Bank of England.
喬治·索羅斯（George Soros）
打垮了英格蘭銀行的人。
When George Soros won a $10 billion speculative bet against the British pound, he was known by everyone as the “Man who brought down the Bank of England.” Whether people like or dislike George Soros, he is involved in one of the most exciting events in the history of currency transactions.
當喬治·索羅斯（George Soros）贏得對英鎊的100億美元投機性賭注時，他被大家稱為“打垮了英格蘭銀行的人”。無論人們喜歡還是不喜歡喬治·索羅斯，他都參與了貨幣交易歷史上最激動人心的事件之一。
1.英國應用匯率調整機制 Britain Applied Exchange Rate Adjustment Mechanism
In 1979, the European Monetary System was established, led by France and Germany, to stabilise exchange rates, curb inflation, and prepare for currency integration. One of the critical elements of the European monetary system, the exchange rate adjustment mechanism, established a benchmark exchange rate against the European monetary unit, a basket of currencies for participating countries.
1979年，以法國和德國為首的歐洲貨幣體系建立，來穩定匯率，遏制通貨膨脹並準備貨幣整合。匯率調整機制是歐洲貨幣體系的關鍵要素之一，它確定了與歐洲貨幣單位相對的基準匯率。
The system kept the participating countries’ exchange rates within the range of 2.25% up and down each benchmark exchange rate. The ERM was a fixed, adjustable exchange rate system, and nine reporting of the benchmark exchange rate were made between 1979 and 1987. The UK was not the first to join the ERM in 1990, with a pound-to-German mark benchmark exchange rate of 2.95 and a +/- 6 per cent fluctuation.
此系統將參與國的匯率保持在每個基準上下2.25％的匯率範圍內。 歐洲匯率機制是一個固定的可調整的匯率系統，在1979年至1987年之間進行了9次基準匯率報告。英國並不是第一個加入歐洲匯率機制的國家，1990年，英鎊對德國馬克為基準匯率為2.95和+/- 6％的波動。
Until mid-1992, the ERM appeared to be successful, with diminished inflation in Europe due to the German Central Bank’s leadership’s regulatory effect. However, the initial stability did not last long as international investors began to feel the value of some currencies in the ERM was inadequate.
直到1992年中，歐洲匯率機制似乎取得了成功，由於德國中央銀行領導層的監管作用，歐洲的通貨膨脹開始減少。但是，最初的穩定並沒有持續很長時間，因為國際投資者開始感到歐洲匯率機制中某些貨幣的價值不足。
When Germany was unified in 1989, government spending increased, and the central bank had to print more money. This boosted inflation and left the German central bank unable to do anything but raise interest rates. Germany’s interest rate hike has further affected ERM by putting upward pressure on the German mark’s value.
1989年德國統一後，政府支出增加了，中央銀行不得不印製更多的錢。這加劇了通貨膨脹，使德國中央銀行除了提高利率外無能為力。德國加息對德國馬克的價值施加了向上壓力，進一步影響了歐洲匯率機制。
Consequently, to maintain a fixed exchange rate within the ERM, Irving Fisher’s interest rate equilibrium theory led other central banks to raise their interest rates. It was at this time that George Soros began to take action. Considering Britain’s weak economy and high unemployment, he judged that the British government would not maintain a fixed exchange rate policy.
因此，為了在歐洲匯率機制中保持固定匯率，歐文·費舍爾（Irving Fisher）的利率均衡理論促使其他中央銀行也提高了利率。正是在這個時候，喬治·索羅斯開始採取行動。考慮到英國經濟衰退和高失業率，他認為英國政府將不會維持固定匯率政策。
2. 索羅斯賭英國加入歐洲匯率機制會失敗。Soros bet on Britain’s failure to join ERM.
Soros, a Quantum hedge fund manager, thought the UK had no choice but to devalue the pound or withdraw from ERM and determined to bet on the pound’s depreciation. During the ERM period, capital regulations were continuously removed, making it easier for international investors to recognise imbalances, and they were able to make these imbalances an opportunity.
量子對沖基金經理索羅斯（Soros）認為，英國別無選擇，只能讓英鎊貶值或退出歐洲匯率機制，並決定押注英鎊貶值。在歐洲匯率機制期間，資本法規不斷被廢除，使國際投資者更容易發現到不平衡，並能夠使這些不平衡成為機會。
Soros built a short position against the pound and an extended position against the mark by borrowing the pound and investing in the Mark-marked assets. Soros also utilised huge options and futures contracts. His positions totalled $10 billion. Soros was not alone, of course. Many investors soon followed him. Everyone sold the pound, which acted as a substantial downward pressure on the pound.
索羅斯通過拋售大量英鎊並購入德國馬克來做空英鎊，還利用了英國和德國的大量期權和期貨合約來買賣。他使用他的職位總額的100億美元來進行進行操作，之後，很快有許多投資者跟隨他。每個人都賣出了英鎊，這對英鎊構成了巨大的下行壓力。
Initially, the Bank of England attempted to defend the fixed exchange rate by buying an enormous reserve asset of £15 billion. However, their involvement in the foreign exchange market was not enough. Market participants traded the pound very close to the bottom of the fixed exchange rate fluctuation range.
最初，英格蘭銀行試圖通過購買150億英鎊的龐大儲備資產來捍衛固定匯率。但是，他們僅僅參與外匯市場還不夠。市場參與者將英鎊交易至非常接近固定匯率波動區間的底部。
On September 16, 1992, the day it was later called Black Wednesday, the central bank announced a 2 per cent increase in interest rates (10 per cent to 12 per cent) to support the pound. A few hours later, he promised to raise interest rates by an additional 15 per cent. Still, Soros and other international investors remained unmoved when they learned that the opportunity to realise huge profits was close. Traders continued to sell the pound on a large scale, but the Bank of England continued to buy the pound.
1992年9月16日，後來稱作黑色星期三，中央銀行宣布加息2％（10％至12％）以支持英鎊。幾個小時後，他答應再加息15％。儘管如此，索羅斯和其他國際投資者在得知實現巨額利潤的機會即將來臨時仍然不為所動。交易商繼續大規模出售英鎊，但英格蘭銀行繼續購買英鎊。
At 7 p.m. on the same day, when Treasury Secretary Norman Lamont declared, “The U.K. is leaving the ERM.”, and interest rates returned to the first level of 10 per cent. Chaotic Black Wednesday was a prelude to the pound’s steep depreciation.
當天晚上7點，英國財政部長諾曼·拉蒙特（Norman Lamont）宣布：“英國即將退出歐洲匯率機制體系。”而利率又回到了10％的最高水平。黑色混沌星期三是英鎊急劇貶值的前奏。
Whether the transition to a floating exchange rate was due to Soros’s attack on the pound, or just fundamentals, remains a subject of debate today. However, what is certain is that over the next five weeks, the pound has fallen about 15 per cent against the German mark and has lost 25 per cent against the dollar, giving Soros and other traders huge profits.
不管過渡到浮動匯率是由於索羅斯對英鎊的襲擊，還是僅是基本面分析，仍然是當今爭論的話題。但是，可以肯定的是，在接下來的五周中，英鎊兌德國馬克下跌了約15％，兌美元匯率下跌了25％，這使索羅斯和其他交易員獲得了可觀的利潤。
Within a month, Quantum Fund earned about $2 billion by selling more expensive German Marks and purchasing cheaper pounds. The case of “The man who brought the Bank of England to its knees” was a representative case of how vulnerable the central bank is too speculative attacks.
在一個月內，量子基金通過出售更昂貴的德國馬克和購買更便宜的英鎊獲利約20億美元。 “使英格蘭銀行屈服的那個人”的案例代表了中央銀行太容易受到投機性攻擊的影響。
1997-1998 Asian Financial Crisis
1997-1998年亞洲金融危機
1. 新興經濟體 The Emerging Economies
Asian Tiger economies collapsed on July 2, 1997. It is a perfect example of the global capital market’s interdependence and the subsequent impact on the currency market. Although several fundamental collapses triggered the crisis, the primary reason stemmed mainly from opaque lending practices, rising trade deficits and immature capital markets.
高速發展的亞洲經濟體於1997年7月2日崩壞。這是全球資本市場相互依存以及隨後對貨幣市場產生影響的一個很好的例子。儘管幾次根本性的崩壞引發了這場危機，但主要原因是不透明的借貸實施，貿易赤字增加和不成熟的資本市場。
The combination of such factors made major regional markets incompetent, creating a catastrophic situation that brought highly valued currencies down to a significantly lower level. During this period, the crisis badly influenced the stock and the currency market.
這些綜合因素使主要的區域市場失去了競爭力，造成了災難性的情況，使高價貨幣跌至更低的水平。在此期間，這場危機嚴重影響了股票和貨幣市場。
2. 泡沫 Bubble
By 1997, the increment of asset prices increasingly attracted investors to the prospects of Asian investment focused on real estate development and the stock market. As a result, foreign investment capital has flowed into areas where economic growth is rising due to increased production, such as Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Korea.
1997年，資產價格的上漲越來越吸引投資者，將注意力投向了以房地產開發和股票市場為重點的亞洲投資。結果，外國投資資本流入了因產量增加，經濟增長的地區，例如馬來西亞，菲律賓，印尼和韓國。
Thailand saw economic growth of 13% in 1988, which fell to 6.5% in 1996. Thailand implemented a fixed exchange rate system to peg the baht to a reliable U.S. dollar to provide additional loan support for a healthy economy. By pegging the exchange rate to the U.S. dollar, countries like Thailand sought financial stability in their markets and guaranteed a fixed exchange rate for export deals with the U.S.
1988年，泰國的經濟增長率為13％，到1996年降至6.5％。泰國實行了固定匯率制度，將泰銖綁定美元，為良好的經濟提供了附加的貸款支持。通過將匯率綁定美元，泰國等國家尋求其市場的金融穩定，並保證與美國的出口交易保持在固定匯率。
3. 擴大經常帳戶赤字和貸款Expansion of Current Account Deficit and Loans
However, in early 1997, the sentiment for such fundamentals began to change. Each government found it increasingly difficult to handle the current account deficit, and its lending practices affected the economic structure negatively. In particular, economists were nervous that Thailand’s current account deficit increased to $14.7 billion in 1996.
在1997年初，人們對這種基本面的看法開始改變。每個政府都發現處理經常帳戶赤字變得越來越困難，其借貸行為對經濟結構產生了負面影響。特別是，在1996年泰國的經常帳戶赤字增加到147億美元，讓經濟學家非常擔心。
Although it was relatively smaller than the U.S. current account deficit, Thailand’s deficit gap stood at 8 per cent of GDP. Opaque lending practices have also contributed significantly to this collapse. Senior bank officials and individually close borrowers were given preferential treatment for loans, which, surprisingly, became standard throughout the region. This practice has affected many large Korean companies that rely heavily on debt, with the total amount of bad loans soaring to 7.5 per cent of GDP.
儘管這比美國的經常帳戶赤字要小，但泰國的赤字缺口占GDP的8％。不透明的借貸行為對於此經濟崩壞有重要的影響。銀行高級官員和個人親近的借款人獲得了優惠的貸款，成為整個地區的標準。這種做法影響了許多嚴重依賴債務的韓國大型公司，不良貸款總額猛增至GDP的7.5％。
Additional examples of this practice are seen in Japanese financial institutions. In 1994, Japanese authorities announced $136 billion in loans, but a year later revised $400 billion. In addition to the sluggish stock market, the decline of real estate values and the slowing economy allowed investors to expect the Japanese yen to fall, increasing selling pressure on neighbouring currencies.
在日本金融機構中可以看其他案例。 1994年，日本當局宣布了1,360億美元的貸款，但一年後又修訂成4,000億美元。除了股市低迷外，房地產價格下跌和經濟放緩也使投資者預期日元會下跌，從而增加了鄰國貨幣的拋售壓力。
When Japan’s asset bubble collapsed, asset prices fell the same value as two years’ worth of national production, and property prices accounted for nearly 65 per cent of the total decline.
當日本的資產泡沫化時，資產價格下跌了與兩年國民生產總值相同的價值，而房地產價格幾乎佔總跌幅的65％。
The drop in asset prices sparked a banking crisis in Japan. The banking crisis began in the early 1990s and spread to the overall system crisis in 1997, leading to several high-profile financial institutions’ bankruptcy. In response, the Japanese currency authorities mentioned a potential increase in the benchmark interest rate to defend its currency value. Unfortunately, Japan\ did not implement these ideas at all, and only a few were empty.
資產價格下跌引發了日本銀行的危機。銀行危機始於1990年代初期，並延至1997年的整體系統危機，導致幾家備受矚目的金融機構破產。日本貨幣當局回應可能會提高基準利率以捍衛其貨幣價值。不幸的是，日本根本沒有實施這些想法。
The fall in the exchange rate was snowballing as the central bank’s reserves dried up. The currency’s value was challenging to maintain, considering the downward pressure by currency, based on the announcement of Thailand’s implementation of the floating exchange rate system.
隨著中央銀行的儲備金枯竭，匯率的下跌正如滾雪球般的滾。泰國考慮宣布實行浮動匯率制度，考慮到貨幣下行的壓力，保持該貨幣的價值具有挑戰性。
4.貨幣危機 A Currency Crisis
After large-scale short speculation and market intervention, the aforementioned Asian countries suffered disasters and fell into incompetence. Thailand’s baht, once recognised as an investment asset, fell 48 per cent in value. The most affected currency was Indonesia’s Rupia.
經過大規模的短期投機和市場干預之後，上述亞洲國家遭受了波及，陷入無能為力的境界。泰銖一度被視為投資資產，但其價值卻下跌了48％，而受波及最嚴重的貨幣是印尼的盧比。
Rupia, which had usually been relatively stable with Thai baht before introducing the adjustment exchange rate system, suffered a whopping 28 per cent drop from 12,950 when it was pegged to the U.S. dollar. Among the major currencies, the Japanese yen fell about 23 per cent from a high to a low against the U.S. dollar during 1997 and 1998. The 1997-98 financial crisis shows the interconnection between countries and how it affects the global market. These are examples of how difficult it is for the central bank to successfully intervene when facing enormous market pressure without guaranteeing improvements in economic fundamentals.
在採用調整匯率制度之前，盧比通常比泰銖保持相對的穩定，但與美元綁定時，盧比從12,950下跌了28％。在主要貨幣中，1997年和1998年之間，日元兌美元在從高點跌至低點約23％。1997-98年的金融危機顯示了國家之間的相互連接以及如何影響全球市場。這些都是中央銀行在面對巨大的市場壓力成功進行干預而又不影響經濟基本面的情況下的困難案例。
Today, Asia’s four small dragons are wiggling thanks to IMF restructuring package support and better implementation of stricter requirements again. Setting inflation standards and rejuvenating export markets, Southeast Asia builds its previously major industrialised economies worldwide.
如今，幸虧國際貨幣基金組織重組計劃的支持以及更嚴格要求的實施，亞洲的四小龍正在發展。東南亞設定了通貨膨脹標準並振興了出口市場，從而在全球經濟體系內建立了主要工業化經濟體。
After experiencing depletion of foreign exchange reserves, the Asian Tigers focus on keeping enough foreign currency reserves to defend speculators’ to attack their currencies again.
在經歷了外匯儲備的枯竭之後，亞洲四小龍致力於保持足夠的外匯存底以捍衛投機者再次攻擊其貨幣。
歐元發行(1999)
Launch of the Euro (1999)
The launch of the euro was a monumental event as the most extensive currency conversion ever made. The euro was officially launched on 1 January 1999 as a currency traded only on computer books without any real issues. Belgium, Germany, Spain, France, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, and Finland were the first of the 11 members of the European Monetary Union. Greece became the first countries to use the euro two years later.
歐元的發行是一個具有里程碑意義的事件，是有史以來最廣泛的貨幣兌換。歐元於1999年1月1日作為電子貨幣正式發行，與會員國原貨幣並行使用，將現有原貨幣兌歐元的匯率設定為固定匯率。比利時，德國，西班牙，法國，愛爾蘭，意大利，盧森堡，荷蘭，奧地利，葡萄牙和芬蘭是歐洲貨幣聯盟11個初始會員國。兩年後，希臘成為第一個使用歐元的國家。
Countries pegged their currencies at a specific conversion rate to the euro and adopted a standard currency policy controlled by the European Central Bank. For many economists, the system was ideal for including all 15 European Union countries, but Britain, Sweden and Denmark decided to keep their currencies for the time being.
各國以特定的匯率將其貨幣與歐元綁定，並採用由歐洲中央銀行控制的標準貨幣政策。對於許多經濟學家來說，該系統非常適合所有15個歐盟國家，但英國，瑞典和丹麥決定暫時保留其原貨幣。
Euro notes and coins were not in circulation until the first two months of 2002. Officially, the euro notes and coins were introduced from 1 January 2002 to 28 February 2002, after a two-month exchange period, the EU thoroughly used the euro from 1 March 2002. On 1 January 2014, Latvia participated in the euro, expanding the number of countries currently using the euro as their official currency to 18 countries. All EU member states had to weigh the gains and losses in deciding whether to settle the euro.歐元紙幣和硬幣直到2002年的1到2月才開始流通。歐元紙幣和硬幣是在2002年1月1日至2002年2月28日正式發行，經過兩個月的兌換期，歐盟從 2002年3月1日開始完全使用歐元。2014年1月1日，拉脫維亞加入了歐元，將目前使用歐元作為其官方貨幣的國家數量擴大到18個國家。所有歐盟成員國都必須權衡利弊，以決定是否讓歐元結算。
For EMU citizens, travel convenience may be the most prominent problem, but the euro has also brought many other benefits.
對於歐洲貨幣聯盟公民而言，出行變得便利可能是最顯著的好處，但是歐元也帶來了許多其他好處。
1.歐元消除了國家之間的匯率波動，為歐洲的貿易提供了更穩定的環境。 The euro provided a more stable environment for trade in Europe by eliminating exchange rate fluctuations between countries in use.
2. 消除歐元區內的所有匯率風險，企業可以更準確地計劃投資決策。Eliminating all exchange rate risk within the eurozone allows companies to plan investment decisions very accurately.
3. 交易成本降低了。交易成本是指與外匯管理，對沖管理，跨境支付以及多種貨幣帳戶的運營相關的成本。Transaction costs have been reduced. Transaction costs refer to the costs associated with foreign exchange management, hedge management, cross-border payments and the operation of multiple currency accounts.
4.消費者和企業可以更輕鬆地比較不同國家的商品價格，使價格更加透明和更具競爭力。 Consumers and businesses can more easily compare prices of goods between countries, making them more transparent and competitive.
5.龐大的單一貨幣市場對外國投資者更具吸引力。 The huge single currency market has become more attractive to foreign investors.
6.大規模的經濟和穩定狀況增強了人們的信心，使歐洲中央銀行得以以低利率控制價格。 The economy and stability of a huge scale boosted confidence, which allowed the European Central Bank to control prices at low-interest rates.
However, the euro also has its limitations. Even if putting political issues aside, the biggest problem is countries that adopt the euro cannot have any independent monetary policy. Because each country’s economy does not have a perfect correlation with the EMU’s, some countries may face a situation where the European Central Bank raises interest rates during the recession.
然而，歐元也有其侷限性。撇開政治問題，最大的問題是採用歐元的國家不能有任何獨立的貨幣政策。由於每個國家的經濟與歐洲貨幣聯盟（EMU）沒有完美關係，因此某些國家可能會遇到經濟衰退期和歐洲央行加息的情況。
This happened in many small countries. As a result, governments try to rely more heavily on fiscal policy. Still, the effective fiscal policy’s effectiveness limited if it is not effectively combined with monetary policy. This inefficiency was exacerbated by the EMU’s regulations restrict the budget deficit to 3% of GDP as specified in its Stability and Growth Convention.
這發生在許多小國家，導致政府試圖更加依賴財政政策。但是，如果未將有效的財政政策與貨幣政策有效地結合在一起，則其有效性將會受到限制。根據EMU的《穩定與增長公約》的規定，預算赤字不得超過GDP的3％，而加劇了這種低效率的情況。
There are also some concerns about the validity of the European Central Bank. ECB set inflation target slightly below 2%, but from 2000 to 2002, eurozone’s inflation was slightly above the benchmark and exceeded the target level. By the end of 1999, due to the European Union’s lack of a new currency, the euro’s U.S. dollar exchange rate fell 24% in January 1999 from 1.15 to 0.88.
對於歐洲中央銀行的有效性也存在一些擔憂。歐洲央行將通脹目標設定為略低於2％，但從2000年至2002年，歐元區的通脹率略高於基準並超過了目標水平。到1999年底，由於歐盟缺乏新貨幣，歐元對美元的匯率從1999年1月的1.15下降到了0.88，下降了24％。