歐元概述 The Overview of Euro (EUR)
The European Union developed as an institutional system for the construction of a unified Europe. The E.U. currently consists of Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Hungary, Slovakia, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Slovenia, Cyprus, Bulgaria, Romania, and Croatia (including the United Kingdom). Countries except Denmark, Sweden, the United Kingdom, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Romania, and Croatia use the Euro as their common currency.
歐洲聯盟發展為統一歐洲制度的體系。歐盟目前由奧地利，比利時，丹麥，芬蘭，法國，德國，希臘，愛爾蘭，義大利，盧森堡，荷蘭，葡萄牙，西班牙，瑞典，匈牙利，斯洛伐克，立陶宛，拉脫維亞，愛沙尼亞，斯洛文尼亞，塞普勒斯，保加利亞，羅馬尼亞和克羅地亞（包括英國）。除丹麥，瑞典，英國，捷克共和國，匈牙利，波蘭，立陶宛，保加利亞，羅馬尼亞和克羅地亞以外的其他國家/地區均使用歐元作為其共同貨幣。
The 18 countries that use the common currency by organising the European Monetary Union (EMU) and share the single monetary policy required by the European Central Bank (ECB). The EMU is the world’s second-largest economy with a highly developed bond market, stock market and futures market. EMU is becoming the second most attractive investment market for investors both inside and outside the Euro area.
18個國家通過組織歐洲貨幣聯盟（EMU）使用共同貨幣並由歐洲中央銀行（ECB）發布單一的貨幣政策。 EMU是世界第二大的經濟體，擁有高度發達的債券市場，股票市場和期貨市場。對於歐元內外的投資者，歐洲貨幣聯盟已成為第二大具吸引力的投資市場。
The Euro has taken its place, and more countries participate in the EMU. The importance of the euro as a reserve currency has increased at the same time, thereby increasing the inflow of capital into Europe. Euro’s demand is expected to continue to grow as foreign central banks are expected to increase their euro holdings to diversify their portfolio in the future.
歐元已取代大部份歐洲國家的貨幣，更多國家加入了歐洲貨幣聯盟。同時，歐元作為儲備貨幣的重要性也在增加，從而增加了資本向歐洲的流入。外國央行預計增加其持有的歐元來分散其投資組合，故歐元的需求將繼續地增長。
EMU is a trade-driven and capital flow-driven economy. Therefore, trade is significant for each country within the EMU. Unlike most significant economies, EMU does not incur large-scale trade deficit surpluses. Yet, EMU also has considerable trade volume with other countries, so it has great power in international trade. The formation of the EU has also increased its influence in the international community. If individual countries are integrated into a single economic bloc, they can negotiate on an equal footing with the United States, the largest trading partner.
歐洲貨幣聯盟是一種貿易和資本流動驅動的經濟。因此，對歐洲貨幣聯盟中的每個國家而言，貿易是最重要的。與其他經濟體不同，歐洲貨幣聯盟不會帶來大規模的貿易逆差或順差，但是，歐洲貨幣聯盟與其他國家的貿易量也很大，因此在國際貿易中具有強大的實力。歐盟的成立也增加了其在國際社會中的影響力。如果將單個國家整合到一個經濟體系中，可以與最大的貿易夥伴美國進行平等的談判。
The growing role of the EU in international trade has given significant meaning to the part of the euro as a reserve currency. To reduce exchange risk and transaction costs, countries should have a large amount of reserve currency. Traditionally, most international trade deals have used British pounds, Japanese yen, and U.S. dollars. Before introducing the euro, it was entirely unreasonable for European countries to hold the currencies of other European countries on a large scale. Hence, the bank had the reserve currency in dollars.
歐盟在國際貿易中的角色越來越重要，這使得歐元逐漸成為其他國家的儲備貨幣中之一。為了降低匯率風險和交易成本，各國應擁有大量的儲備貨幣。早期，大多數國際貿易交易都使用英鎊，日元和美元。在歐元出現之前，歐洲國家不會大規模持其他歐洲國家的貨幣，因此，大多銀行的儲備貨幣為美元。
歐洲中央銀行
決定貨幣政策
European Central Bank(ECB)
Determines Monetary Policy
ECB is the organisation responsible for determining the monetary policy of the EMU participating countries. The EMU’s executive committee form a policy with central bank governors from each country and implement policies. At bi-weekly meetings, the new monetary policy is usually decided by a majority vote, and if the polls are tied, the president will have the right to choose.
歐洲央行是負責決定歐洲貨幣聯盟成員國貨幣政策的組織。歐洲貨幣聯盟的執行委員會與各國中央銀行行長一起制定政策並執行政策。在每兩週一次的會議上，通過投票方式決定新的貨幣政策，如果票數結果相同，總統將有權選擇。
EMU’s primary goals are to stabilise prices and promote growth. Changes in monetary and fiscal policy are made to achieve these goals. The EU enacted the Maastricht Treaty, which established several application criteria for individual countries to achieve that goal. Any country that deviates from these standards will be subject to hefty fines.
歐洲貨幣聯盟的主要目的是穩定價格和促進經濟的成長。為了實現這些目標，改變了貨幣和財政政策。歐盟頒布了《馬斯垂克條約》，該條約為各個國家建立出實現此目標的適用準則，任何違反這些準則的國家都將受到巨額罰款。
Based on these criteria, the ECB has strict membership management rights focused on inflation and deficits. The ECB typically strives to maintain the monthly consumer price index, harmonised Index of consumer prices(HICP), at less than 2% per year and M3 (currency supply) at 4.5% per year.
根據這些準則，歐洲央行擁有針對通脹和赤字的嚴格會員管理權。歐洲央行通常努力將每月的消費者物價指數及調和消費者物價指數（HICP）維持在每年最少2％的水準並將M3（貨幣供應）保持在每年4.5％的水準。
歐洲貨幣聯盟彙聚準則 EMU Convergence Criteria
The 1992 Treaty of Maastricht defined the following prerequisites for membership in the European Monetary Union (EMU).
1992年的《馬斯垂克條約》頒布成為歐洲貨幣聯盟（EMU）成員的條件，如下述:
1. Inflation should not exceed 1.5% of the average annual inflation before the evaluation date of the three countries with the best economic conditions in the region
在三個經濟狀況最佳國家的評估之日之前，通貨膨脹率不應超過該地區年平均通貨膨脹率的1.5％。
2. 長期利率不得超過該地區任何國家（10年）通貨膨脹率最低的三個國家的12個月平均值。 Long-term interest rates will not exceed the 12-month average of the three countries with the lowest inflation rate of any country in the region (10 years).
3.匯率機能的匯率波動範圍，至少保持兩年在基準匯率上下15%。 The exchange rate will remain within the range of exchange rate fluctuation (15% above and below the benchmark rate) of the ERM (EXCHANGE-RATE MECHANISM) for at least 2 years.
4.所有政府債務餘額應保持在GDP的60％以內。如果高於此值，則允許其適當低降低。 General government debt balances should remain within 60% of GDP. If higher than this, allow if it is decreasing sufficiently.
5.一般財政赤字應保持在GDP的3％以內。允許其暫時或略微超過。 General financial deficits should remain within 3% of GDP. Allow temporary or slight excess.
ESCB, ECB and 28 member central banks are independent of governments and other EU agencies and have complete control over monetary policy. Members granted this operational independence under Article 108 of the Treaty of Maastricht. The main content of Article 108 states that members of a decision-making organisation cannot receive instructions from local, government, or any other organisation in the EU.
歐洲中央銀行體系、歐洲中央銀行和28個成員國的中央銀行，不附屬於政府和其他歐盟機構，可獨立制定貨幣政策。成員國根據《馬斯垂克條約》第108條，被授予此業務獨立性。第108條的主要內容規定，決策組織的成員，不得接收從地方、政府或歐盟任何其他組織的指示。
公開市場操縱 Open Market Manipulation
The ECB is operating open markets in four categories to adjust interest rates, manage liquidity and suggest monetary policy stance:
歐洲央行在四個類別的公開市場中進行操作，以調整利率，管理流動性並提出貨幣政策立場：
1. 主要再融資操作（MRO） Main Refinancing Operation(MRO)
→這是對金融部門每週執行，為期兩週的流動性供應（貸款）計劃的再融資交易。 It is a two-week liquidity supply (loan) program implemented every week and is a refinancing transaction to the financial sector.
2. 長期再融資計畫（LTRO）Longer-Term Refinancing Operation(LTRO)
→作為期限超過三個月以上的流動性供應（貸款）計劃，向金融部門提供了長期再融資，該計劃每月實施一次。 Long-term refinancing is provided to the financial sector as a liquidity supply (loan) program with a maturity of more than three months, which is implemented once a month.
3. 微調操作 Fine-Tuning Operation
→ 會不時實施管理市場流動性和調整利率的政策，來控制因無法預見的流動性變化而引起的利率波動。 Policies implemented from time to time to manage liquidity in the market and adjust interest rates are implemented to control interest rate fluctuations arising from unforeseen changes in liquidity.
4. 結構操縱 Structural Manipulation
→這包括發行債務工具，贖回交易和交易概述。當歐洲央行想要調整歐元體系在金融部門（常規或非常規）中的結構地位時，就會進行操縱。 This includes issuing debt instruments, redemption transactions, and outline transactions. Manipulation occurs when ECB wants to adjust the euro system’s structural position in the financial sector (regular or irregular).
歐洲央行最低買入利率 ECB Minimum Bid Rate
The lowest bid rate for the European Central Bank is an important policy objective. It is directly related to a loan rate provided to the central bank of the various countries. The rate is adjusted every 2weeks, and ECB tends to keep interest rates to the targeted rate to prevent inflation.
歐洲中央銀行的最低買入利率是一項重要的政策目標。這與提供給各國中央銀行的貸款利率直接相關。該利率每兩週調整一次，歐洲央行傾向於將利率保持在目標利率以防止通貨膨脹。
The ECB is not reducing its exchange rate target, but it will consider the exchange rate in the policy deliberation process as it affects price stability. Consequently, the ECB implements foreign exchange market intervention in the event of inflation.
歐洲央行並未降低其目標匯率，但會在政策審議過程中考慮匯率，因為這會影響價格的穩定性。因此，如果出現通貨膨脹，歐洲央行將對外匯市場進行干預。
As a result, the policy committee members’ remarks draw attention to foreign exchange market participants and trigger euro volatility. The ECB publishes monthly data describing economic growth analysis and changes in perception of economic conditions, which need to be watched because it can detect the change in monetary policy stance.
結果，政策委員會成員的言論引起了外匯市場參與者的注意，並引發了歐元的波動。因此，歐洲央行在每月發布的經濟成長分析和對經濟狀況看法變化的數據時，需要留意這一點，因為可以從中發現貨幣政策立場的變化。
歐元的主要特徵 Key Characteristics of the Euro
1. 歐元/美元是最容易波動的貨幣，所有主要的歐元交叉貨幣也極易波動。 EUR/USD is the most volatile currency, and all major euro-cross currencies are also highly volatile.
The euro debuted on 1 January 1999 in the form of electronic currency. At that time, the euro replaced all pre-EMU currencies. As a result, EUR/USD is currently the most fluid currency pair globally, and the movement of EUR/USD is used as a primary measure of European and U.S. economic health. The euro is commonly known as the “anti-dollar” because it was the dollar’s fundamentals that influenced the EUR/USD currency pair movement between 2003 and 2008.
歐元於1999年1月1日以電子貨幣形式首次發行。當時，歐元取代了歐洲貨幣聯盟之前的所有貨幣。結果，歐元/美元是目前全球流動性最高的貨幣對，歐元/美元的變動被作為衡量歐洲和美國經濟健康狀況的主要指標。歐元通常被稱為“反美元”，正是因為美元的基本面影響了2003年至2008年之間歐元/ 美元貨幣對的動向。
EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF are also highly volatile currencies and are commonly used to determine Japanese and Swiss economies’ health. EUR/USD and EUR/GBP are good pairs of currencies to trade because of their low spread, orderly movement, and infrequent gaps.
歐元/日元和歐元/瑞郎也是高度波動的貨幣，通常用於確定日本和瑞士經濟的健康狀況。歐元/美元和歐元/英鎊的價差低、波動有序且不經常出現缺口，是良好的交易貨幣對。
2. 歐元獨特的風險。 The euro has unique risks.
Introduced in 1999, the euro is still a new currency. The euro is not a problem for other currencies, but there are many risks to consider. In other words, 28 countries are exposed to economic, political and social situations. Although the number of countries using the euro is expected to increase, it will affect the stability of the entire eurozone if any country stops using the euro or begins to return to its currency because it does not think the ECB’s policy is in its best interest.
歐元於1999年推出，至今仍是一種新的貨幣，相對於其他貨幣，歐元沒有很大的問題，但是仍有很多風險需要被考慮。儘管使用歐元的國家數量預計會增加，但是如果有任何國家停止使用歐元或開始重返本國貨幣，這將影響整個歐元區的穩定性。換句話說，有28個國家面臨經濟，政治和社會局勢的改變，因為歐洲央行的政策被認為不符合其最大利益。
The euro is the only currency in the world that is not used on a national basis. Even if Germany, France, Italy and Spain are the largest and most economically dominant countries in the eurozone, the ECB has the authority and responsibility to determine monetary policy for all 28 member states. The 28 member states frequently verify, criticise and politically press the ECB’s actions. Before the subprime crisis, the ECB was just a new, untested central bank. However, the ECB has wholly changed its reputation for them by responding quickly to the credit crunch and providing ample liquidity.
歐元是世界上唯一沒有在國家基礎上使用的貨幣。即使德國，法國，意大利和西班牙是歐元區最大和最具經濟優勢的國家，歐洲央行也有權力和責任來決定所有28個成員國的貨幣政策。這28個成員國經常對歐洲央行進行核對，批評及政治施壓的行動。在次貸危機爆發之前，歐洲央行只是一個未經測試的新央行。然而，歐洲央行通過迅速應對信貸緊縮提供充足的流動性，徹底改變了它們的聲譽。
3.十年期美國政府債券與十年期德國政府債券之間的利率差表明歐元走勢。 The spread of interest rates between 10-year U.S. government bonds and 10-year German government bonds suggests a euro direction.
The 10-year government bond is used as an essential indicator of the future euro exchange rate. The difference in interest rates between the 10-year U.S. and 10-year German government bonds is a good sign for the euro. If German government bond interest rates are higher than those of U.S. government bonds, and the difference increases or the spread widens, this suggests a rise in the euro. If the difference in interest rates decreases or the spread narrows, the euro can be predicted to fall. The 10-year German government bond is usually used as the eurozone’s benchmark bond.
10年期政府債券被做為未來歐元匯率的重要指標。美國10年期國債與德國10年期政府債券之間的利率差是歐元的好兆頭。如果德國政府債券的利率高於美國政府債券的利率，並且差額增加或利差擴大，則表明歐元上漲。如果利率差異減小或利差收窄，則可以預測歐元將下跌。德國10年期政府債券通常做為歐元區的基準債券。
4. 預測歐元區的資金流動。Forecasting the flow of funds in the euro area.
Another trading indicator is the Inter-European bank rate (three-month interest rate), a regular deposit rate between large banks. Traders tend to compare the eurodollar futures rate with the three-month interest rate to forecast the movement.
另一個交易指標是歐洲之間銀行利率（三個月的利率），這是大型銀行之間的定期存款利率。 交易者傾向於將歐元兌美元的期貨利率與三個月的利率進行比較，來預測未來走勢。
M&A also have significant implications for EUR/USD movements. M&A between EU and US multinational corporations has been increasing in recent years. The large transactions will have a significant short-term impact on EUR/USD.
買斷合併對歐元/美元走勢也有重大影響。 近年來，歐美跨國公司之間的併購活動一直增加。 大型交易將對歐元/美元產生重大的短期影響。
歐元的重要經濟指標 An Important Economic Indicator of the Euro
The following are all important economic indicators for the euro. It is also essential to be aware of political and economic situations such as GDP, inflation, and unemployment. The leading economies of the European Monetary Union (EMU) are Germany, France and Italy. Therefore, we should note the economic indicators of the above three countries, along with the overall EMU economic indicators.
以下是歐元的重要經濟指標。注意政治和經濟形勢，例如GDP，通貨膨脹和失業率也很重要。歐洲貨幣聯盟（EMU）的主要經濟體是德國，法國和義大利。因此，我們應注意上述三個國家的經濟指標以及歐洲貨幣聯盟的整體經濟指標。
1. GDP
GDP is collected and published by Eurostar from many countries. It usually includes France, Germany, and the Netherlands (Italy only added to the final report). The annual total of EU-28 and EMU-18 is a simple sum of national GDP. It is more complicated to add up because some countries (Greece, Ireland, Luxembourg) do not create quarterly national data. Moreover, Portugal produces partial quarterly figures with significant time differences. Thus, quarterly figures across EU-28 and EMU-18 are estimates based on groups of countries that account for more than 95% of the total EU GDP.
GDP由歐洲統計局收集許多國家的資料並發布的資訊。這些資料通常包括法國，德國和荷蘭（僅將義大利添加到最終報告中）。 EU-28和EMU-18的年度總數是國家GDP的簡單總和。由於某些國家（希臘，愛爾蘭，盧森堡）沒有季度的數據，所以加起來會較複雜。此外，葡萄牙有部分的季度數據計算有明顯的時差。因此，EU-28和EMU-18計算出的季度數據是根據佔歐盟總GDP超過95％的國家估算得出的。
2. 德國工業生產German Industrial Production
Industrial production includes a breakdown of four segments (mining, manufacturing, energy and construction) reflecting seasonal factors. Manufacturing production consists of four main product groups: necessary production materials, capital goods, consumer goods and non-durable consumer goods.
工業生產包括反映季節性因素的四個部分（採礦，製造，能源和建築）的細分。製造業的生產包括四個主要產品類別：必要的生產材料，資本品，消費品和非耐用消費品。
Since Germany is the largest economy in the eurozone, industrial production in Germany is significant. However, markets sometimes react to French industrial production. Because industrial production has fewer data samples, modifications using all models are used as valid data. The Treasury often displays the expected direction of the changes in the initial data.
德國是歐元區最大的經濟體，因此德國的工業生產非常重要。但是，市場有時會對法國的工業生產產生反應。由於工業生產的數據樣本較少，因此使用的所有模型都將修改成有效的數據。財政部通常會在初始數據中顯示預期的變化方向。
3. 調和消費者物價指數（HICP） Harmonized Consumer price index (HICP)
The EU HICP, announced by Eurostat, was designed for national comparative analysis based on EU law. Eurostat has published the index since January 1995, and since January 1998, it has published the EMU-18 Regional Detail Index, called the MUICP. Price information provides Euro start with 100 indexes for each national statistical agency to survey and calculate their harmonised consumer price index.
歐洲統計局（Eurostat）宣布的歐盟HICP旨在根據歐盟法律進行國家比較分析。歐洲統計局（Eurostat）自1995年1月起發布該指數，在1998年1月以來，它已發布了EMU-18地區的詳細指數，稱作消費者價格貨幣聯盟指數(MUICP)。價格訊息讓歐洲統計局，為每個國家統計機構提供了100個指數，來調查並計算統一其消費者物價指數。
Eurostar aggregates these sub-indexes into weighted averages and publishes each country’s harmonised consumer price index, which is then weighted by country and releases at the end of every month. It is around ten days after the announcement of the national CPI in Spain, France and EMU-5 countries.
歐洲統計局將這些子指數匯總為加權平均值，然後發布每個國家統一的消費者物價指數(CPI)，然後按國家加權，並在每個月底發布。距西班牙，法國和EMU-5國家的CPI公佈已經過了大約十天。
Although the market already reflects prices when the harmonised consumer price index is released, it is worth noting that the ECB references the index. The ECB aims to maintain consumer price inflation in the euro area within 0% to 2%.
儘管在發布統一的消費者物價指數時市場已經反映了價格，但值得注意的是，歐洲央行參考了該指數。歐洲央行的目標是將歐元區的消費者物價通脹維持在0％至2％之間。
4.貨幣供給量 M3
M3 is a broad money supply indicator that includes both bonds and bank deposits. The ECB closely observes M3 inflation as its primary measure. In December 1998, the ECB’s Policy Committee set the M3 target at 4.5%, achieving the inflation target of 2%, the growth target of 2 to 2.5%, and the long-term monetary rate target of 0.5 to 1%. Growth rates are observed on a three-month moving average basis to avoid possible information distortions in monthly variability.
M3是廣義的貨幣供應指標，包括債券和銀行存款。歐洲央行將M3通脹作為其主要措施並密切關注。 1998年12月，歐洲央行政策委員會將M3目標設定為4.5％，將通脹目標設定為2％，將成長目標設定為2至2.5％，將長期貨幣利率目標設定為0.5至1％。以三個月的移動平均值為基礎觀察成長率，以避免訊息因每月的變化而被曲解。
The ECB’s approach to monetary goals has room for manipulation and intervention. As the German central bank did, the ECB does not set the scope of M3, so there will be no action even if M3 is outside the set range. Furthermore, although the ECB considers M3 an important indicator, it will also refer to other changes in the direction of currency circulation.
歐洲央行在實現貨幣目標時，保留操縱和干預的餘地。正如德國中央銀行那樣，歐洲央行不會設定M3的範圍，因此即使M3超出設定範圍也不會採取任何行動。此外，儘管歐洲央行認為M3是一個重要指標，但也將此歸類於貨幣流通方向的其他變化。
5. 德國失業率 German Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate announced by the Federal Labor Office in Germany both seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) figures, including information on the unemployed population. Unseasonably adjusted unemployment rates are announced along with vacancies, short-term shifts, and the number of employees.
德國聯邦勞工局公佈的失業率包括季節性調整（SA）和非季節性調整（NSA）的數據，包括有關失業人口的訊息。公佈了未經季節性調整的失業率以及職位空缺，短期變動和僱員人數。
Germany’s central bank announces seasonally adjusted unemployment within an hour of the Federal Labor Office announcement. A day before the announcement, official data is often leaked from the labour union, when the number of unseasonably adjusted unemployed is almost millions.
德國中央銀行在聯邦勞工局宣布後的一小時內，宣布季節性調整後的失業率。公告發布的前一天，官方數據經常會從工會洩露出，未經季節性調整的失業人數接近數百萬。
When sources in Reuters report the offensive numbers of unseasonably adjusted unemployment, the leaked figures usually reflect official statistics. Rumours are sometimes circulated a week before the official announcement, but they are wildly inaccurate. Furthermore, German statements have been misinterpreted through foreign media so far, so caution is needed in interpreting rumours.
當路透社的消息報導出未經調整的失業人數時，洩漏的數字通常反映了官方統計數據。有時會謠言會在官方宣布的前一周傳開，但數據完全不正確。此外，到目前為止，德國的聲明已被外國媒體誤解，因此在解釋謠言時需要謹慎。
6. 每個國家的財政赤字 Each Country’s Fiscal Deficit
The stability and growth pact sets the upper limit of the fiscal deficit below 3% GDP. Each country also has goals to reduce its fiscal deficit. Market participants keep an eye on whether they fall short of the target.
穩定與成長協定將財政赤字的上限設定在GDP的3％以下。每個國家都有減少財政赤字的目標。市場參與者會密切關注他們是否沒達到目標。
7. IFO調查 IFO Survey
Germany, which accounts for more than 30% of the eurozone’s GDP, is Europe’s largest economy. Thus, an understanding of the status of German companies is regarded as this issue for the whole of Europe. IFO investigates the German corporate environment and short-term planning for 7,000 German companies every month.
德國是歐洲最大的經濟體，佔歐元區的GDP超過30％。 因此，對於整個歐洲來說，了解德國公司的經濟景氣狀況，相當的重要，所以IFO每月會調查7,000多家德國公司的狀況和短期計劃。