Currency pairs in the forex market do not move the same way to each other. In most cases, foreign economic conditions, interest rates, and price changes affect not only one currency pair but also many different currency pairs.
外匯市場中的貨幣對之間的變化不同。在大多數情況下，國外經濟狀況，利率和價格變化不僅會影響一種貨幣對，還會影響其他不同的貨幣對。
Every factor is partly interrelated with each other and knowing the extent of this interaction or the direction is useful for developing trading strategies and use as a trading tool. Unless you trade only one currency pair, it is vital to understand the correlation between currencies.
每個因素都有部分的相互關聯，了解相互影響程度或決策方向對於製定交易策略和做為交易工具都很有用。除非您僅交易一個貨幣對，否則了解貨幣之間的相關性很重要。
The correlation is calculated using price data and the correlation coefficients to measure the relationship between different currencies. The information from these correlation coefficients helps traders diversify their portfolios or increase their positions to other currency pairs. It enables traders to know the extent of risk exposure, means to increase profit and prevent inefficient trading.使用價格數據和相關係數來計算相關性，測量不同貨幣之間的關係。從這些相關係數的訊息可幫助交易者分散其投資組合或增加其他貨幣對中的頭寸。此讓交易者能夠了解風險的程度，增加利潤和預防低效率的交易。
關聯的益處 Usefulness of Correlation
Identifying the correlation between currency pairs in a trader’s portfolio is a perfect way to measure the extent of the risk of exposure. While you may think that you are diversifying your portfolio by investing in different currency pairs, most currency pairs in the portfolio tend to move in the same direction or the opposite direction. The correlation between currencies can be strong or weak, and this correlation can last for several months or even years.
確認交易者投資組合中貨幣對之間的相關性是衡量風險程度的方式。儘管您可能認為通過投資不同的貨幣對讓投資組合多樣化，但投資組合中，大多數的貨幣對通常朝著相同或相反的方向移動。貨幣之間的關聯性高低，可以持續數月甚至數年。
Correlation coefficient numbers allow us to estimate how closely currency pairs move in the same or different directions over a particular period. The correlation coefficient values take a small number and have a value of at least -1.0 to a wedge of +1.0. The correlation coefficient value is close to the +1 value, meaning that the two pairs of currencies move together with the same directionality.
在特定時期內，使用相關係數能判斷貨幣對在相同或不同方向上移動的緊密程度。相關係數值最小，且數值至少為-1.0至+1.0間。相關係數值接近+1時，意味著兩對貨幣以相同的方向移動。
For example, USD/JPY and USD/CHF have shown a correlation coefficient of +0.70 over the past month. Consider converting them into percentages if you are insensitive to values in the form of a decimal number. It can then be determined that there is a 70% correlation between the two currencies. The correlation coefficient value close to +1.0 moves in the same direction. On the contrary, a discount relative to -1.0 indicates the “reverse correlation” between the two currency pairs, which means that the exchange rate moves the other way around.
例如，在過去一個月中，美元/日幣和美元/瑞郎的相關係數為+0.70。如果您對小數位形式的數值比較遲鈍，請考慮將其轉換為百分比。然後知道兩種貨幣之間存在70％的相關性。接近+1.0的相關係數值沿著相同方向移動。反之，相對於-1.0的貼現率表示兩個貨幣對之間的“相反的相關性”，意味著匯率向相反方向移動。
A strategy of buying one currency pair and selling another may not be desirable. This is because the value of the buy currency pair increases in the upward trend, but the other side of the currency pairs’ value decreases, offsetting the rise in the buy currency pair. This buying/selling strategy does not guarantee the trader’s profit, nor does it precisely zero the loss because the two currency pairs have different pip values. In this combination of portfolios with similar movements between the two currency pairs, the establishment of opposite buying/selling positions can reduce profits and even cause losses.
購買一種貨幣對並出售另一種貨幣對的策略可能不是理想的。因為購買貨幣對的價值呈上升趨勢，但另一側的貨幣對價值減少，從而抵銷了購買貨幣對的利潤。這種買/賣策略不能保證交易者的利潤，也不能將損失精確地歸零，因為兩種貨幣對的點值不同。在兩種貨幣對之間具有相似變動的投資組合中，建立相反的買/賣頭寸會減少利潤，甚至造成損失。
A positive correlation is not the only useful measurement of connectivity between pairs of currency. A negative correlation is also helpful in building a currency portfolio. In the following example, consider a case with a high negative correlation instead of a positive correlation. Contrary to positive correlation, the closer the correlation coefficient approaches -1, the motion of the call pair is connected in the opposite direction.
正相關並不是衡量貨幣對之間關連性的唯一有效方法，負相關也助於建立貨幣投資組合。在下面的舉例中，考慮負相關高而不是正相關的情況。與正相關相反，相關係數越接近-1，與相反的方向連接的貨幣對。
Let’s look at the case of EUR/USD, which correlates negatively with USD/CHF. The correlation coefficient between the two currency pairs is -0.80 on a one-year basis and -0.90 every month. What this number means is that the two currency pairs are highly inclined to move in opposite directions. Thus, when two currency pairs take opposite positions, it is equivalent to building positions in the same direction on two currency pairs with high positive correlations. Such a negatively correlated buy-and-sell strategy has the same effect as increasing a position, which consequently increases the portfolio’s risk exposure.
讓我們看一下歐元/美元與美元/瑞士法郎的負相關的情況，這兩種貨幣對之間的相關係數為-0.80/一年，-0.90/每月，表示兩個貨幣對傾向於朝反方向移動。因此，當兩個貨幣對採取相反的頭寸時，相當於在具有高正相關性的兩個貨幣對上朝相同方向建立頭寸。這種負相關的買賣策略與增加頭寸具有相同的效果，因此增加了風險曝露的投資組合。
更改相關係數值 Changing Correlation Coefficient Values
Anyone who has experienced foreign exchange transactions at least once would know that the foreign exchange market is very dynamic. Various economic conditions, prices, and psychology are changing every day. What should be remembered when analysing the correlation between currencies according to the changing foreign exchange market characteristics is that these critical variables change quickly over time. The strong correlation observed today may differ from that observed next month.
任何曾經歷過一次外匯交易的人都會知道，外匯市場是非常活躍。各種經濟條件，價格和心理每天都在變化。根據不斷變化的外匯市場特徵分析貨幣之間的相關性時應注意，這些關鍵變量會隨時間快速變化。今天觀察到的相關性強度可能與下個月觀察到的不同。
As the foreign exchange market environment continues to change, it is imperative to recognise market trends to use the correlation coefficient analysis method. For example, for AUD/USD and GBP/USD, the correlation coefficient observed for a month is 0.08. This low correlation indicates that the movement between the two currency pairs moves without affecting each other.
隨著外匯市場環境的不斷變化，必須使用相關係數分析方法來了解市場趨勢。例如，對於澳幣/美金和英鎊/美金，在一個月中觀察到的相關係數為0.08，這種低的相關性說明兩個貨幣對之間在互相不影響的情況下移動。
However, calculating the three-month correlation coefficient between the two currency pairs increases to 0.24, and the six-month correlation coefficient, calculated in the same way, increases sharply to 0.41, and the one-year correlation coefficient to 0.25. What can be seen from this example is that the relationship between the two currency pairs is collapsing in the short term. Although there is a substantial amount of correlation, in the long run, there is little correlation in a short time.
但是在計算到三個月內，兩個貨幣對之間的相關係數會增加到0.24，以相同方式計算到六個月內，相關係數會急劇增加到0.41，而在一年內相關係數在0.25。從此範例中可以看出，兩種貨幣對之間的關係正在短期內崩潰，儘管存在大量的相關性，但從長遠來看，在短時間內幾乎沒有相關性。
如何計算貨幣對之間的相關性？
How to Calculate the Correlation
between Currency pairs?
As we have seen before, since the correlation between currency pairs changes over time, we need to update the correlation values to recognise the trends like strength and direction. The simplest way is to do this is by using the Excel program.
正如我們之前所看到的，由於貨幣對之間的相關性會隨時間而變化，因此我們需要更新相關值來知道未來趨勢的強度和走向等。最簡單的方法是使用Excel。
The Excel program can use the correlation coefficient function by selecting a specific period with the currency’s price data to determine the correlation coefficient. Based on the data for one year, six months, three months and one month, we can draw a comprehensive picture of the similarities and differences between the two currencies. We should use many of these data to determine what and how to use them.
通過Excel相關係數函數公式，選擇特定時段的貨幣價格數據來確定相關係數。根據一年、六個月、三個月和一個月的數據，我們可以全面了解兩種貨幣之間的相似及差異點。我們應該多使用這些數據來了解如何使用它們。
以下是計算相關性的步驟！ Here are the steps to calculate the correlation!
1.收集兩種貨幣對的價格數據。為了一目了然地看整個資料，可以將每週收盤英鎊數據排在一列，而美元數據排在另一列。 Collect price data for two currency pairs.To make it easier to recognize at a glance, the weekly closing GBP data are arranged in one column, and the USD data is arranged on the other.
2. 設置時間的數值，然後在兩個週期匹配的最後一列下方空格中輸入excel函數’= CORREAL’。Set the period for how long, and type the excel function ‘=CORREAL’ in the space below the last column where the two periods match.
3. 然後選擇所有英鎊價格數據，輸入逗號，再選擇所有美金價格數據（= correl（英鎊數據，美金數據）。Then select all GBP price data, enter a comma, and select all USD price data (=correl(GBP data, USD data).
4.此處得出的數值是兩個貨幣對的相關係數。 儘管不需要每天更新這些來取得相關係數值，但建議至少每隔一周或一個月更新一次。 The values derived here are the correlation coefficients of the two currency pairs. Although these obtained correlation coefficient values are not required to be updated daily, it is recommended to update them once every other week or at least once a month.