Traders need to pay attention to the difference between expectations and actual values of economic indicators. This is the most crucial part of interpreting news because it influences the foreign exchange market depending on market expectations and actual values.
交易者需要注意預期與經濟指標實際值之間的差異。這是解釋新聞最關鍵的部分，因為這是根據市場期望和實際價值來影響外匯市場。
This is called a market discount mechanism, showing the relationship between the forex market and the news are significant. If the information or economic indicators are closer to expectations, there is less impact on monetary movement. Therefore, short-term traders should look carefully at market expectations.
這稱為市場折扣機制，說明外匯市場與新聞之間的關係十分重要。如果訊息或經濟指標更接近預期，則對貨幣走勢的影響較小。因此，短期交易者應仔細觀察市場預期。
美元（USD）概述 The Overview of US Dollar (USD)
The U.S. is the world’s leading and largest economy. Based on the purchasing power evaluation model, it is three times the production of Japan, five times the output of Germany, and seven times the production of Britain. The United States is a service-oriented country where real estate, transportation, finance, medical services, and business services account for about 80% of GDP.
美國是領先世界和最大的經濟體。根據購買力評估模型，它是日本的三倍，德國的五倍和英國的七倍大。美國是一個服務型國家，房地產，運輸，金融，醫療服務和商業服務約佔GDP的80％。
Foreign investors have continued to increase their purchases of U.S. assets because the U.S. has the world’s most liquid stock and bond markets. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the number of foreigners directly investing in the United States amounts to 40 per cent of the world’s funds flowing into the United States. The United States also absorbs 71 per cent of all overseas savings.
外國投資者繼續增加對美國資產的購買，因為美國擁有世界上流動性最高的股票和債券市場。根據國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）的數據，在美國直接投資的外國人數量佔流入美國的全球資金的40％。美國還吸收了所有海外儲蓄的71％。
This means that if foreign investors withdraw their funds in the U.S. asset market, the asset value and the U.S. dollar will be significantly affected. More specifically, if foreign investors dispose of dollar-denominated assets to purchase other high-yield investments, this would result in a decline in the value of U.S. assets as well as U.S. dollars.
這意味著，如果外國投資者在美國資產市場上撤出資金，則資產價值和美元將受到重大影響。更具體地說，如果外國投資者賣出以美元計價的資產來購買其他高收益投資，這將會導致美國資產和美元的價值下降。
The size of U.S. imports and exports also exceeds that of other countries. This is due to the size of the United States itself, and the actual size of U.S. imports and exports is only 12% of GDP. Despite this massive trade activity, the United States recorded a current account deficit. This is a problem that the U.S. economy has been troubled with for more than a decade.
雖然美國進出口的實際規模僅佔GDP的12％，但因為美國本身的規模，其進出口規模也超過其他國家。儘管有如此大規模的貿易活動，美國經常帳戶仍常赤字，這是美國經濟長達十多年的問題。
And over the last decade, the U.S. has weakened its overseas funding capacity as foreign central banks have considered diversifying their reserve assets from the dollar to the euro, making the current account deficit a bigger problem. The U.S. dollar is susceptible to changes in capital flows due to its massive current account deficit.
在過去的十年中，由於外國央行考慮將其儲備資產從美元分散到歐元，美國被削弱了其海外融資能力，這使得其經常帳戶的赤字成為更大的問題。由於經常帳戶赤字巨大，美元容易受到資本流動變化的影響。
The United States is also the largest trading partner in many countries, with U.S. trade accounting for 20 per cent of the world’s trade. The changes in dollar-value and volatility affect trade activities with U.S. trading partners. More specifically, a weak dollar will boost exports of U.S. products, but a strong dollar will reduce overseas demand for U.S. products.
美國還是許多國家中最大的貿易夥伴，美國貿易占世界貿易的20％。美元價值和波動率的變化會影響與美國貿易夥伴的貿易活動。更具體地說，美元走弱將提高美國產品的出口，但美元走強將減少海外對美國產品的需求。
聯準會監管貨幣政策 FED Regulate Monetary Policy
The Federal Reserve is a U.S. monetary policy authority. The FED determines and implements monetary policy through the FOMC. The FOMC’s voting members are seven members of the FED and five of the 12 regional Federal Reserve governors. The FOMC holds regular meetings eight times a year, widely watched as it decides whether to adjust interest rates or presents economic growth forecasts.
聯準會是美國貨幣政策的管理機構，聯準會通過聯邦公開巿場操作委員會決定並實施貨幣政策。聯邦公開巿場操作委員會的投票成員是聯準會的七名成員和聯準會12個州，州長中的五個。聯邦公開巿場操作委員會（FOMC）每年舉行八次例會，決定是否調整利率或提供經濟增長預測時，都被廣泛關注。
The FED has an entirely independent monetary policy authority and less political influence. This is because most board members can serve a very long term (14 years), even if the ruling party of the president and Congress changes.
聯準會擁有完全獨立的貨幣政策權力，被政治影響較小，即使總統和國會的執政黨發生變化，大多數的董事會成員也可以擔任非常長的任期（14年）。
The FED will issue monetary policy reports for the first half of February and July, followed by Humphrey-Hawkins testimony. The Federal Reserve Chairman answers questions from Congress and the Banking Committee regarding the report. It is worth noting that the report includes the FOMC’s outlook on GDP, inflation and unemployment.
依照漢弗萊·霍金斯（Humphrey-Hawkins）法案的規定，聯準會在每年2月和7月上半月發布貨幣政策報告。聯準會主席需回答國會和銀行委員會對於該報告的問題。值得注意的是，該報告包括了聯邦公開巿場操作委員會對GDP，通脹和失業率的觀點。
Unlike other central banks, the FED has the authority to achieve its long-term goal of price stability and sustainable economic growth. To achieve this goal, the FED must control inflation and unemployment and implement monetary policies for balanced growth. The most common means used by FEDs to control monetary policy are open market manipulation and federal funding rates.
與其他中央銀行不同，聯準會有權實現其長期目標來穩定價格和可持續經濟的增長。為了實現這一個目標，聯準會必須控制通貨膨脹和失業率，並實施貨幣政策來實現均衡發展。聯準會用來控制貨幣政策，最常見手段是公開市場操縱和聯邦資金利率。
1. 公開市場操縱 Open Market Manipulation
Open market manipulation involves FED buying state bonds, including treasury bills, treasury notes, and treasury bonds. This is one of the most common means of FED to suggest and implement policy changes.
公開市場操縱涉及聯準會購買國債，包括短期國庫券、國庫票據和國庫長期債券。這是聯準會建議和實施政策變更的最常用方法之一。
In general, if FED increases the purchase of state bonds, liquidity is supplied to the market, which lowers interest rates. When FED sells state bonds, it absorbs market liquidity and increases interest rates.
一般而言，如果聯準會增加購買國債，將提供給市場流動性，從而降低利率。當聯準會出售國債時，會吸收市場的流動性並提高利率。
2.聯邦資助目標 Federal Funding Goals
The federal funding target rate is a key policy objective of the Federal Reserve and refers to the interest rate that the FED applies to loans to member banks. FED drive growth and consumption by raising federal funds rates to lower inflation or lower federal funds rates. Changes in federal funding rates are closely observed in the marketplace, meaning significant policy changes, which have a broad impact on bond and stock markets worldwide. The market pays particular attention to the fed statement, as it provides clues to the future direction of monetary policy.
聯邦資金目標利率是聯準會的關鍵政策目標，指聯準會適用於向成員銀行貸款的利率。聯準會通過提高聯邦基金利率來降低通脹或降低聯邦基金利率驅動成長和消費。市場上密切觀察到聯邦資金利率的變化，這意味著重大的政策變化，對全球債券和股票市場產生了巨大的影響。市場特別關注聯準會的聲明，因為這對貨幣政策的未來走向提供了線索。
In terms of fiscal policy, the U.S. Treasury Department has the right to determine the federal funds rate. Determination of fiscal policy involves determining appropriate levels of tax and government expenditure. The market is paying more attention to the FED, but the real government agency that determines the dollar policy is the U.S. Treasury Department.
在財政政策方面，美國財政部有權決定聯邦基金利率。決定財政政策涉及適當稅收的決策和政府支出的水平。市場越來越關注聯準會，但決定美元政策真正的政府機構是美國財政部。
In other words, if the dollar is judged to be undervalued or overvalued in the foreign exchange market, the Treasury Department grants or directs the New York Federal Reserve to sell or buy U.S. dollars by allowing it to intervene in the foreign exchange market. Therefore, changes in the Treasury’s dollar policy and its policies are critical to the currency market.
換句話說，如果美金在外匯市場中被低估或高估，財政部被允許干預外匯市場，授予或指示紐約聯邦儲備銀行出售或購買美金。因此，美國財政部的貨幣政策的變化對貨幣市場相當重要。
美金的主要特徵 Key Characteristics of the Dollar
1. 貨幣交易中超過90％與美金相關。 More than 90% of all currency transactions are dollar related.
The most volatile currencies in the foreign exchange market are EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD and USD/CHF. These currencies are the most actively traded globally and are related to the U.S. dollar. More than 90% of all currency transactions are related to the U.S. dollar, so the dollar is significant for foreign exchange traders. Therefore, the most important economic indicator that drives the market is the fundamentals of the United States.
外匯市場中波動最大的貨幣是歐元/美金、美金/日幣、英鎊/美金和美金/瑞士法郎，這些貨幣是全球交易最活躍的貨幣，皆與美金有關。貨幣交易中超過90％都與美金相關，美金對外匯交易者而言意義重大。因此，推動市場最重要的經濟指標是美國的基本面。
Before the September 11 attacks, the dollar was the world’s best safe currency.
在9月11日恐怖攻擊之前，美金是世界上最安全的貨幣。
The U.S. dollar was considered the world’s highest safe currency because the U.S. stability was very high before September 11, 2001. The United States was known as one of the safest and most advanced markets in the world. The dollar’s status as a safe asset allowed the United States to attract investment at a low rate of return, and 76% of the world’s monetary reserves were dollar-denominated assets.
在2001年9月11日之前美金的穩定性非常高，被世界認為是安全性最高的貨幣，也是最先進的市場之一。美金作為安全資產的地位使美國能夠以低回報率吸引投資，世界上76％的外匯儲備都是以美元計價的資產。
Another reason for holding monetary reserves in U.S. dollars is that the dollar is the world’s key currency. The dollar’s position as a safe asset has played an essential role in choosing a reserve currency for foreign central banks. However, foreigners, including central banks, have had less U.S. assets since September 11, as uncertainties about the U.S. increased and interest rates have fallen.
讓美金作為外匯儲備的另一個原因是，美金是世界主要貨幣。美金作為安全資產的地位在外國央行選擇儲備貨幣方面發揮了相當重要的作用。但是，自911事件發生後，外國人持有的美國資產，包括中央銀行在內，皆有所減少，因為對美國的不確定性增加且利率下降。
The emergence of the euro also threatened the dollar’s status as the world’s top reserve currency. Many of the world’s central banks have already begun to diversify their reserve currencies by reducing their dollar reserves and increasing their euro reserves. This trend is an essential thing for all traders to watch in the future.
歐元的出現也威脅到美元作為世界外匯儲備的地位。世界上許多央行已經開始通過減少美元儲備和增加歐元儲備來使其儲備外匯多樣化。對於所有交易者而言，這將會是未來的趨勢。
2. 美金走勢與黃金價格成反比。 The U.S. dollar moves in the opposite direction to the price of gold.
Historically, the gold prices and the U.S. dollar shows conflicting mirror images. This means that the dollar falls when gold prices rise and vice versa. This inverse correlation stems from the fact that the value of gold is measured in dollars.
從歷史上看，金價和美金呈現出相反的走勢。這意味著，當金價上漲時，美元貶值，反之亦然。這種反相關性源於黃金的價值以美金為單位的事實。
Gold has long been recognized as the ultimate form of currency, so the depreciation of the dollar due to global uncertainty has been the main reason for the rise in gold prices. Also, because gold is considered the best safe asset, investors will flock to gold if it highlighted geopolitical uncertainty. This inherently undermines the value of the dollar.
長期以來黃金一直被認為是貨幣的最終形式，因此當全球對於美金的不確定性而導致美金貶值是黃金價格上漲的主要原因。另外，由於黃金被認為是最安全資產，如果出現地緣政治的不確定性，投資者就會湧向黃金。這逐漸降低了美元的價值。
3. 許多新興國家將其貨幣價值與美金綁定。 Many emerging countries link their currency values to the dollar.
Interlocking the dollar has to do with the basic idea that the government will agree to keep the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency by buying or selling its currency at a fixed exchange rate for the reserve currency. These governments should promise to have at least the same amount of national currency and reserve currency in general circulation.
與美金的關聯，即政府同意通過以固定匯率對外匯儲備進行買賣來保持美金作為儲備貨幣。政府應保證在一般流通中至少具有相同數量的本國貨幣和儲備貨幣。
Therefore, these central banks, which have held large amounts of U.S. dollars and are actively interested in managing fixed or variable exchange rates, are critical. Currently, Hong Kong has a fixed exchange rate system linked to the dollar, and China has also maintained a fixed exchange rate system linked to the dollar until July 2005.
因此，這些持有大量美金並對積極關心管理固定或變動匯率的中央銀行非常重要。目前，香港與美元有綁定的固定匯率制度，而直到2005年7月，中國也一直維持與美元掛鉤的固定匯率制度。
China is a very active participant in the currency market. This is because China’s maximum daily fluctuation is controlled within a very narrow range based on the closing exchange rate of the U.S. dollar the previous day. If it goes beyond this within a day, the central bank will buy or sell dollars through foreign exchange market intervention.
中國非常積極的參與貨幣市場，因為中國的每日最大波動幅度，會根據前一天美金的收盤匯率，被控制在一個非常狹窄的範圍內。如果一天之內超過這一水平，央行將通過外匯市場來干預買賣美元。
Before July 21, 2005, China implemented a peg system that fixed its exchange rate at 8.3 yuan to the dollar. Under pressure to appreciate the currency for many years, China adjusted its currency rate to 8.11 yuan and adjusted it to the closing price of the currency every day. Since then, China has shifted to a management-varying exchange rate system based on the currency basket exchange rate.
在2005年7月21日之前，中國實行了綁定的匯率制，將人民幣匯率固定在1美元兌8.3元人民幣。 在多年升值的壓力下，中國將人民幣匯率調整為8.11元，並調整為每天的收盤價。 從那時起，中國開始轉向基於貨幣組合的方式管理變動匯率制度。
Over the past one or two years, the market has noted the asset acquisition patterns of these central banks. The need for U.S. dollars and dollar-denominated assets is gradually decreasing for central banks as the diversification of the reserve currency, and the flexibility of the exchange rate system in Asian countries progresses. If this is true, it could be a very negative factor for the U.S. dollar in the long run.
在過去的一兩年中，市場已經注意到這些中央銀行的資產收購模式。 隨著外匯儲備的多樣化以及亞洲國家匯率制度逐漸的改進，各國央行對美元和以美金計價的資產的需求正在逐漸減少。 從長遠來看，對美金會是一個非常不利的因素。
4. 遵循美國政府債券與海外債券之間的利率差異。Interest rate differences between U.S. government bonds and overseas bonds are strongly followed.
The difference in interest rates between U.S. government bonds and overseas bonds is an essential relationship that professional FX traders follow. This could be a strong indicator of potential currency movements, as the U.S. bond market is one of the world’s largest bond markets, and investors are very sensitive to the return of unsold assets.
美國政府債券與海外債券之間的利率差異是專業外匯交易者必須遵循的必要關係。這可能是潛在貨幣走勢的有力指標，因為美國債券市場是世界上最大的債券市場之一，並且投資者對未售出資產的回報非常敏感。
Large investors are always looking for assets that offer high returns. Investors will sell U.S. assets and buy overseas assets if the yield on U.S. bonds decreases or increases foreign bonds. Selling U.S. bonds or stocks will affect the currency market, as it involves selling U.S. dollars and buying foreign currencies. If the yield on U.S. bonds increases or the yield on overseas bonds decreases, investors will eventually buy U.S. assets, resulting in a strong U.S. dollar.
大型投資者一直在尋找能帶來高回報的資產。如果美國債券的收益率下降，投資者將出售美國資產或併購買海外資產來增加外國債券。賣出美國債券或股票會影響到貨幣市場，因為這些都涉及到賣出美金和購買外幣。如果美國債券的收益率上升，或海外債券的收益率下降，則投資者將購買回美國資產，此結果使得美金將走強。
5.密切關注美元指數。 Keep an eye on the dollar index.
Market participants closely observe the US DOLLAR INDEX (USDX) to measure overall dollar strength or weakness. USDX is a futures contract traded on the New York Exchange, which is determined by the weight of trade volume in six major countries worldwide.
市場參與者密切觀察美國美元指數（USDX），以衡量總體美元的強弱。 美元指數是在紐約交易所交易的期貨合約，取決於全球六個主要國家的交易比重。
It is essential to share the index because market participants refer to the general index when discussing a general weakening of the dollar or a fall in the trade-weighted dollar. Besides, even if the dollar fluctuates significantly against individual currencies, USDX may not move significantly because it is based on trade weights.
共享指數非常重要，因為在討論美元總體弱化或美元貿易加權下跌時，市場參與者會參考總指數。此外，即使美金兌個別貨幣有大幅波動，美元指數也不可能會大幅波動，因為美元指數是以交易權重為基礎。
The index is important because some central banks focus on the trade price index rather than the individual currency pair movement against the dollar.
該指數之所以重要，是因為某些央行將重點放在貿易價格指數上，而不是單個貨幣對兌美元的走勢。
6. 美元受到股票市場和債券市場的影響。The U.S. Dollar is affected by the stock market and bond market
There is a strong correlation between a country’s stock and bond markets and its currency. In general, a rise in the stock market will bring in foreign funds to gain investment opportunities. If the stock market falls, local investors will sell local stocks to seize overseas investment opportunities.
一個國家的股票和債券市場與其貨幣之間有很強的相關性。一般而言，股票市場上漲將吸引外國資金來獲得投資機會。如果股市下跌，當地投資者將出售當地股票，來取得海外投資機會。
For the bond market, a more robust economy would prompt the inflow of foreign capital. Changes in exchange rates and developments in these markets result in changes in foreign portfolio investment, requiring foreign exchange transactions.
對於債券市場而言，更強勁的經濟將促使外國資本流入。匯率的變化和這些市場的發展導致外國證券投資產生變化，需要進行外匯交易。
M&As between countries are also an essential part of FX traders’ watch. Large-scale M&A involving significant cash transactions have a substantial impact on the currency market. Because the buyer must buy or sell dollars to secure cross-border mergers and acquisitions funds.
國家之間的買斷合併也是外匯交易者主要觀察的部分。涉及大量現金交易的大規模併購對貨幣市場產生重大影響。因為買方必須買賣美元才能獲得跨境併購的資金。
重要的美國經濟指標 Important U.S. Economic Indicators
The following economic indicators are all critical indicators for the U.S. dollar. Since the U.S. economy is a service-oriented country, the service sector’s indicators should be taken into account.
以下經濟指標都是美元的關鍵指標。由於美國經濟是服務型國家，因此應考慮服務業的指標。
1. 非農就業 Employment-Non-Farm
U.S. employment indicators are the most important and highly watched economic indicators. This is due to the Federal Reserve’s political influence under intense pressure to control unemployment. As a result, interest rate policies are directly affected by employment conditions.
美國就業指標是最重要且受到高度關注的經濟指標。這是由於美聯儲在控制失業的巨大壓力下的政治影響。結果，利率政策直接受到就業條件的影響。
It includes two surveys: a monthly reporting business survey and a household survey. Business survey results in non-agricultural employment, average weekly working hours per hour, total working hours index, and household survey results in information about the working population, household employment, and unemployment rate.
它包括兩項調查：每月報告機構調查和家戶調查。機構調查的結果是非農業就業，每小時平均每週工作時間，總工作時間指數以及家戶調查的結果是有關工作人口，家庭就業和失業率的訊息。
Forex traders watch for significant changes in the monthly unemployment rate and the number of non-agricultural workers who have undergone a seasonally adjusted period.
外匯交易員關注每月失業率以及經歷了季節性調整期的非農業工人人數的重大變化。
2. 消費者物價指數 Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a crucial measure of inflation and the price of a basket of consumer goods. Economists focus more on source inflation, except for CPI-Utility or highly volatile foodstuffs and energy items. The consumer price index is observed with interest in the foreign exchange market because it can lead to various economic and social changes.
消費者物價指數（CPI）是衡量通貨膨脹和一籃子物價的關鍵指標。除CPI的效用或容易波動的食品和能源統計數字外，經濟學家更多地關注物價上漲。觀察到的消費者價格指數引起了外匯市場的興趣，因為它可能導致各種經濟和社會變化。
3. 生產物價格指數 Producer Price Index
The PPI is an index that measures the average change in sales prices released by domestic producers. The PPI tracks price changes in almost all production industries in the country like agriculture, electricity, natural gas, forestry, fishing, manufacturing, and mining. The foreign exchange market traders should watch how the PPI index reacts monthly, quarterly, and annually along with the seasonally adjusted PPI.
PPI是衡量國內製造商發布的平均銷售價格變化的指數。 PPI追蹤全國所有生產行業的價格變化，例如農業，電力，天然氣，林業，漁業，製造業和採礦業。外匯市場交易者應注意PPI指數每月，每季度和每年經過季節性調整的PPI反應。
4. 國內生產毛額 Gross Domestic Product
Gross domestic product (GDP) is a measure of the total amount of goods and services produced and consumed in the United States. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) comprises two complementary components: income-based data and expenditure-based data.
國內生產毛額（GDP）是美國生產商品總量和消費以及服務的產出。美國經濟分析局（BEA）包含兩個補充部分：基於收入的數據和基於支出的數據。
The reserve of GDP released a month after the end of each minute is the most important indicator that includes estimates of inventories and trade balances that have not yet been disclosed. Other announcements of GDP are not necessary unless they are significantly revised.
在每個月最後一分鐘結束後公布的GDP儲備是最重要的指標，其中包括尚揭露露的庫存估算和貿易差額。除非對其進行了重大修訂，否則不會另外發布其他GDP公告。
5. 貿易差額 Trade Balance
The balance of trade represents the difference between imports and exports of goods and services. It provides detailed information on trade with all countries and individual goods and trade with specific countries and regions. Traders judge the monthly benchmark figure to be low in reliability and focus on the three-month seasonally adjusted trade balance.
貿易差額是貨物和服務進出口之間的差額。它提供了所有與國家和個人物品的貿易以及與特定國家及地區貿易的詳細資訊。交易員認為，每月基準的數據可靠性較低，較著重於經過三個月的季度調整後的貿易差額。
6.就業成本指數 Employment Cost Index
The ECI is a measure of employees’ remuneration at the end of each quarter’s third monthly pay cycle. The survey measures the probability of approximately 3,600 private company employees and 700 state and local governments, public schools, and public hospitals.
ECI是對每三個月的季度工資週期結束時員工薪酬的衡量。該調查測量了大約3600間私人公司員工以及700個州和地方政府，公立學校和公立醫院的結果。
A significant advantage of the Employment Cost Index is that it includes non-wage expenses that account for more than 30% of the total employment cost. It is necessary to pay close attention because it is an indicator that the Fed is watching.
就業成本指數有個顯著優勢是它包含了佔總就業成本30％以上的非工資支出。必須密切注意，因為這是美聯儲正在關注的指標。
7. 美國供應管理協會 Institute for Supply Management
The ISM publishes monthly composite indices calculated by surveys from 20 industries and 300 manufacturers nationwide. An index greater than 50 indicates an expansion of the competition or a contraction for less than 50. It is widely seen as one indicator that Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the Fed, watched very closely.
ISM每月發布的綜合指數，這些指數是根據來自全國20個行業和300家製造商調查得出的。指數大於50表示競爭加劇或收縮減小於50。人們普遍認為，美聯儲前主席艾倫•格林斯潘非常密切地關注著這一指標。
8. 工業生產指數 Industrial Production Index
The Industrial Production Index is an index that measures the performance of U.S. manufacturing, mining, and utility production. It is possible to identify production activities for each industry and item. The foreign exchange market mainly focuses on the total number of seasonal changes. An increase in the index usually causes a strong dollar.
工業生產指數是衡量美國製造業，採礦業和公用事業生產績效的指數。可以識別每個行業和每個項目的生產活動。外匯市場主要集中在季度的變化總數上。指數的上漲通常會導至美元走強。
9. 消費者信心指數 Consumer Confidence Index
The Consumer Confidence Index is calculated based on consumers’ individual economic perceptions. The survey is based on a sample of 5,000 households nationwide, usually calculated with 3,500 responses. It’s a total of five questions.
消費者信心指數是根據消費者的個人經濟觀念計算出的。該調查基於全國5,000戶的樣本，通常以3500份回答進行計算。總共有五個問題。
– 當地的工作狀況。Local business conditions.
-6個月的區域經濟展望。 Regional Economic Outlook in 6 Months.
– 該地區的就業情況。Employment situation in the region.
– 6個月內的就業前景。 Prospects for employment in 6 months.
– 預測6個月的家庭收入。Forecast of household income in 6 months.
The survey responses shall be individually indexed after seasonal adjustment and then made into a composite index. Market participants perceive the rise in the consumer confidence index as a signal of increased consumer spending. Increasing consumer spending is often seen as a catalyst for accelerating inflation.
季度調整後，應將個體指數的調查結果，製成複合指數。市場參與者認為消費者信心指數的上升是消費者支出增加的信號。消費者支出的增加通常被視為加速通膨的催化劑。
10. 零售銷售 Retail Sales
The Retail Sales Index measures monthly gross sales by selecting a retailer sample. It represents a measure of consumer spending and consumer confidence. The index excluding car sales is the most important because of the large monthly fluctuations in automobile sales. Retail sales are very volatile due to seasonal factors, but they are an essential indicator of economic status.
零售指數通過選擇零售商樣本來衡量月度總銷售額。它代表了消費者支出和消費者信心的估量。排除汽車銷量的指數是最重要的，因為汽車銷量每月都有較大的波動。由於季節的因素，零售指數較不穩定，但它們仍是經濟狀況的重要指標。
11. 美國國際資本流動數據（TIC數據）Treasury Department International Capital Outflow Data (TIC Data)
The TIC data is a monthly measure of the total amount of capital inflows into the United States. The data has grown in importance over the years as the U.S. trade/financial deficit has deepened.
TIC數據是每月流入美國的資本總量的估量。這些年來，隨著美國貿易金融赤字的加深，數據的重要性越來越高。
It becomes a more significant issue as a way to resolve the U.S. trade deficit, and the market pays attention to the capital flow of the public sector, which represents the demand for U.S. bonds by foreign central banks.
作為解決美國貿易逆差的方法，這已成為一個更加重要的問題，市場關注公共部門的資本流動，這代表了外國中央銀行對美國債券的需求。