Many trad . Excellent traders use both methods at the same time. However, it is not easy to analyse past price trends and price movements without considering the seasonal factors.

許多優秀的交易者同時使用基本或技術分析兩種方法來預測未來匯率。但是，在不考慮季節因素的情況下分析過去的價格趨勢和價格走勢並不容易。

 

不可思議的一月效應 The Incredible January Effect

There is a concept called the “monthly effect” that has been quite popular in the stock market. The idea was first mentioned in 1942 by Robert A. Haugen and Josef Lakonishok in the book named “The Incredible January Effect”.

有一個稱為“月份效應”的概念在股票市場中非常流行。 1942年，羅伯特·A·豪根（Robert A. Haugen）和約瑟夫·拉科尼索克（Josef Lakonishok）在《不可思議的一月效應》書中首次提到了這個想法。

In the stock market, the January effect means that from the last trading day of December to the fifth trading day of the next year, the market tends to be bullish. It is due to most investors are selling their shares to realise capital gains or determine losses. On the other hand, some entities make similar transactions to restructure their financial statements.

在股市中，一月效應意味著從12月的最後一個交易日到明年的第五個交易日，市場趨於看漲。這是因為大多數投資者出售股票以實現資本收益或確定損失。另一方面，一些實體進行類似的交易以重組其財務報表。

The January effect is not the only strange phenomenon in the stock market. There is also something called Mark Twain Effect. The theory is that the stock market is fragile in October (derived from Mark Twain’s novel).

一月效應並不是股票市場上唯一奇怪的現象。還有一種叫做馬克吐溫效應的東西。從理論上講，股票市場在十月份是脆弱的（摘自馬克·吐溫的小說）。

Plus, seasonal factors are not unique to the stock market. We can also find seasonal factors in the foreign exchange market. Like the stock market, the most widely known and famous seasonal factor in the foreign exchange market is the January effect.

另外，季節因素並非股市中獨有的。我們也可以再外匯市場中發現季節因素。和股票市場一樣，外匯市場中最廣為人知的季節因素也是一月效應。

This is due to foreign investors to exchange their currencies for U.S. dollars and buy stocks with U.S. dollars. Therefore, due to seasonal factors, the U.S. dollar often outperforms other currencies against some currencies. But keep in mind that not all currency pairs always have the same result.

這是由於外國投資者將其貨幣兌換為美元並用美元購買股票。因此，因為季節因素的影響，美元對某些貨幣的匯率通常會勝過其他貨幣。但是請記住，並非所有貨幣對都具有相同的結果。

暑假季節效應 Summer Vacation Seasonal Factors

July and August are the hottest summer months in the Northern Hemisphere. In the foreign exchange market, summer is the summer vacation period for traders, so volatility is reduced than usual.

七、八月是北半球最熱的夏季月份，在外匯市場中，是交易者的暑假期間，因此波動性比較平常波動低。

Interestingly, both USD/JPY and USD/CAD have unique seasonal factors during the summer months. The two currency pairs show that the dollar strengthens against the counterpart in July and returns to the previous month’s gain in August.

有趣的是，美金/ 日幣和美金/加拿大幣在夏季都有獨特的季節性因素。這兩種貨幣對顯示，美元在7月的匯率相對地走強，並在8月回到前一個月的漲幅。