瑞士法郎（CHF）概述 The Overview of Swiss francs (CHF)
Switzerland has a prosperous economy, the highest GDP per person, and higher stability than many other economies. Its wealth depends primarily on technology, tourism and finance in manufacturing.
瑞士經濟繁榮，人均國內生產總值最高，穩定性比其他許多國家更高。其財富主要取決於製造業的技術，旅遊業和金融。
With its history of chemical, pharmaceutical, industrial, mechanical, instruments along with clocks, and investor confidentiality, Switzerland and the Swiss currency gained a reputation as safe-havens, making it the world’s largest offshore asset destination.
憑藉其化學，製藥，工業，機械，儀器以及鐘錶的歷史悠久，以及投資者的機密性，瑞士和瑞士貨幣被譽為避險資產，使其成為全球最大的離岸資產目的地。
Switzerland has more than $2 trillion in offshore assets and is estimated to account for more than 35% of the world’s private asset management business. As a result, the highly developed large-scale financial and insurance industries have developed, with more than 50% of Switzerland’s population engaged, accounting for more than 70% of total GDP.
瑞士擁有超過2萬億美元的離岸資產，估計佔全球私人資產管理業務的35％以上。結果，高度發達的大型金融和保險業得以發展，瑞士超過50％的人口從事該行業，佔GDP的70％以上。
Switzerland’s financial industry has flourished with its status as a haven and strict customer confidentiality. Therefore, when there is a strong global tendency to hedge, the inflow of funds leads the economy, and when the tendency to take risks increases, trade leads the economy.
瑞士的金融業蓬勃發展，擁有避風港和嚴格的客戶機密性。因此，當全球存在強烈的對沖趨勢時，資金的流入將引導經濟，而當承擔風險的趨勢增加時，貿易將引導經濟。
瑞士國家銀行決定貨幣政策 Swiss National Bank to Determine Monetary Policy
The Swiss National Bank of Switzerland (SNB) is an independent central bank that determines Switzerland’s monetary policy. The committee consists of a chairperson, a vice-chairperson, and other members of the SNB Executive Committee. All decisions are made based on an agreed-upon vote because of the number of people involved.
瑞士瑞士國家銀行（SNB）是決定瑞士貨幣政策的獨立中央銀行。該委員會由SNB執行委員會的主席，副主席和其他成員組成。由於所涉及的人數眾多，所有決定都是基於經過商定的投票做出的。
The Commission reviews monetary policy at least once every quarter, but monetary policy can be determined and published at any time. Unlike most central banks, the SNB does not set an official interest rate target. Instead, it has set a target range for the three-month Swiss Ribo rate.
委員會至少每季度至少審查一次貨幣政策，但是可以隨時確定和公佈貨幣政策。與大多數央行不同，瑞士央行沒有設定官方的利率目標。取而代之的是，它為三個月的瑞士法郎匯率設定了目標範圍。
The SNB set its target at the currency target of M3 but shifted to an annual inflation rate of 2% in December 1999. The monetary target is still an important indicator, which provides information about long-term inflation, so the central bank is monitoring it intensively. The central bank has made it clear that SNB will implement monetary tightening policies if mid-term inflation exceeds 2%. If deflation concerns are raised, the central bank will ease monetary policy.
瑞士央行將其目標設定為M3的貨幣目標，但在1999年12月轉變為2％的年度通貨膨脹率。貨幣目標仍然是一個重要指標，可提供有關長期通貨膨脹的信息，因此央行將對其進行監控密集地。央行已明確表示，如果中期通脹率超過2％，瑞士央行將實施貨幣緊縮政策。如果出現通縮擔憂，央行將放寬貨幣政策。
SNB also closely monitors the exchange rate. The excessive strength of the Swiss franc could cause an inflationary environment. Judging from the fact that the global risk-averse trend will lead to a significant increase in capital flows to Switzerland, which could trigger a strong Swiss franc.
瑞士央行還密切監控匯率。瑞士法郎過高可能會導致通貨膨脹。從全球規避風險的趨勢將導致流入瑞士的資本大量增加這一事實來看，這可能會觸發強勁的瑞士法郎。
Eventually, if this situation arrives, it will intervene without delay in the market through liquidity control to prevent the exchange rate from strengthening. Finally, SNB intervenes in the Swiss franc market through various ways such as verbal intervention, currency supply, and exchange rate.
最終，如果這種情況到來，它將通過流動性控制立即乾預市場，以防止匯率升值。最後，瑞士央行通過各種方式（例如口頭乾預，貨幣供應和匯率）干預瑞士法郎市場。
中央銀行政策工具 Central Bank Policy Instruments
瑞士央行用於執行貨幣政策的最常見手段如下：
The most common means of the policy used by SNB to implement monetary policy are as followings:
1. 目標利率範圍 Target Interest Rate Range
The SNB implements monetary policy by setting a target range of three-month interest rates (Swiss Ribo Rates). This range is usually set to a 100BP spread difference and is modified at least once every quarter. This rate is used as a target because it is the most critical market interest rate for investment in Swiss francs. Modifying this target range involves a solid explanation of changes in the economic environment.
瑞士央行通過設定三個月利率（瑞士瑞波利率）的目標範圍來實施貨幣政策。此範圍通常設置為100BP的傳播差異，並且每季度至少修改一次。該利率被用作目標，因為它是投資瑞士法郎的最關鍵的市場利率。修改此目標範圍需要對經濟環境的變化做出紮實的解釋。
2. 公開市場操縱 Open Market Manipulation
Repo trading is SNB’s primary monetary policy instrument. A repo trading in which the borrower sells the securities to the borrower after agreeing to reversely trade the same number of securities as the same stock on a later designated date. This structure is similar to securities-backed loans in which borrowers now pay interest to borrowers.
回購交易是瑞士央行的主要貨幣政策工具。回購交易，在此交易中，借款人同意在以後的指定日期反向交易與相同股票相同數量的證券，然後再將其出售給借款人。這種結構類似於證券支持的貸款，在這種結構中，借款人現在向借款人支付利息。
A repo deal has a very short maturity, from one day to a few weeks. Suppose the three-month revolving rate rises above the target set by the SNB. In that case, the central bank will provide additional liquidity to commercial banks at low-interest rates through repo trading. In other words, it supplies money to the market in the form of buying bonds from commercial banks and paying cash. On the contrary, SNB can increase the repo rate to reduce liquidity or induce a three-month rise in the ribo rate.
回購交易的期限很短，從一天到幾週。假設三個月的周轉率高於瑞士央行設定的目標。在這種情況下，中央銀行將通過回購交易以低利率向商業銀行提供額外的流動性。換句話說，它以從商業銀行購買債券並支付現金的形式向市場提供資金。相反，瑞士央行可以提高回購利率以減少流動性或導致核糖匯率三個月上升。
The SNB issues quarterly self-reports that reviewed a detailed assessment of current economic conditions and monetary policy. The monthly self-report includes a brief commentary on the economic situation. These reports include information on changes in SNB’s assessment of the current domestic economic situation, which needs to be looked at.
瑞士央行發布季度自我報告，審查了對當前經濟狀況和貨幣政策的詳細評估。每月的自我報告包括對經濟狀況的簡短評論。這些報告包括有關瑞士央行對當前國內經濟形勢的評估變化的信息，需要加以研究。
瑞士法郎的主要特徵 Key characteristics of Swiss Francs
1. 作為避風港的地位。 Status as a Haven.
This is probably a unique characteristic of the Swiss franc. Switzerland’s safety shelter status and the secrecy of the banking system are always emphasised because they are the most important advantages of the Swiss financial industry. Swiss francs usually move according to overseas events rather than domestic economic conditions.
這可能是瑞士法郎的獨特特徵。始終強調瑞士的安全庇護地位和銀行系統的保密性，因為它們是瑞士金融業的最重要優勢。瑞士法郎通常根據海外事件而不是國內經濟狀況波動。
This is because the Swiss franc is considered the world’s best safe currency due to its political neutrality. Investors think of the stability of investment assets before the return on investment when global instability or uncertainty is highlighted. In this situation, if funds flow into Switzerland, the Swiss franc will be substantial regardless of the economic status in Switzerland.
這是因為瑞士法郎由於其政治中立性而被視為世界上最安全的貨幣。當突出全球不穩定或不確定性時，投資者會在投資回報之前考慮投資資產的穩定性。在這種情況下，如果資金流入瑞士，則無論瑞士的經濟狀況如何，瑞士法郎都將是可觀的。
2. 瑞士法郎與黃金高度相關。Swiss Francs are Highly Correlated with Gold.
Switzerland is officially the world’s fourth-largest gold holder. The Swiss Constitution stipulates that 40% of monetary reserves should be held in gold. Despite the disappearance of the regulation, the relationship between gold and Swiss francs is deeply in the minds of Swiss investors.
瑞士正式是世界第四大黃金持有國。瑞士憲法規定，應將40％的貨幣儲備以黃金持有。儘管該法規不復存在，但黃金和瑞士法郎之間的關係仍深深地存在於瑞士投資者的腦海中。
As a result, the Swiss franc correlates nearly 80% with gold. When gold prices rise, Swiss francs are also likely to increase. Gold and Swiss francs are also vital in times of heightened global economy and geopolitical uncertainty, as gold is considered the surest haven to replace the currency.
結果，瑞士法郎與黃金的比例接近80％。當金價上漲時，瑞士法郎也可能會上漲。在全球經濟增長和地緣政治不確定性時期，黃金和瑞士法郎也至關重要，因為人們認為黃金是取代該貨幣的最可靠避風港。
3. 產生貿易效應 Carry Trade Effect
The phenomenon of investors’ preference for high-yield assets has recently become commonplace, and the size has soared. In other words, carry trading is buying or operating low-interest currency assets by selling or borrowing low-interest currencies.
投資者偏愛高收益資產的現象最近已變得司空見慣，規模激增。換句話說，套利交易是通過出售或借入低息貨幣來購買或操作低息貨幣資產。
Because the interest rate of Swiss francs is the lowest among advanced currencies, the currency borrowed or sold by carry trading in Swiss francs. This will result in buying a high-interest currency and selling Swiss francs, a low-interest currency.
由於瑞士法郎的利率是先進貨幣中最低的，因此通過套利交易借入或出售的貨幣為瑞士法郎。這將導致購買高利率貨幣並出售瑞士法郎（低利率貨幣）。
4. 跟踪歐元瑞士期貨和外國利率期貨之間的價格差。 Follows Price Difference Between Euro Swiss Futures and Foreign Interest Rate Futures.
Professional Swiss traders are keeping an eye on the price gap between the three-month Euro-Swiss futures and the Euro-dollar futures. This difference is a good indicator of potential currency flows because it can determine to what extent the premium of U.S. bonds is higher than or vice versa than that of Swiss bond assets in Switzerland.
專業的瑞士交易員正在密切關註三個月的歐元－瑞士期貨和歐元－美元期貨之間的價格差距。這種差異很好地表明了潛在的貨幣流動，因為它可以確定美國債券的溢價在多大程度上高於瑞士在瑞士的債券資產的溢價，反之亦然。
Investors are always pursuing high-yield assets, so this difference shows traders the potential currency movements. This is especially important for carry-traders who want to enter or liquidate transactions by taking advantage of the interest rate gap between global bonds.
投資者一直在追求高收益資產，因此這種差異向交易者展示了潛在的貨幣走勢。對於想利用全球債券之間的利率差距進行交易或清算交易的利差交易者而言，這一點尤其重要。
5. 銀行法規的潛在變化 Potential Changes in Bank Regulations
Over the past few years, European Union countries have put considerable pressure on Switzerland to ease secrecy in the banking system and increase transparency in customer accounts. The EU has continued to press Switzerland as part of its aggressive efforts to investigate tax evaders in the EU, which will be of great interest in the future.
在過去的幾年中，歐盟國家對瑞士施加了相當大的壓力，要求其放寬銀行體系的保密性並提高客戶賬戶的透明度。歐盟繼續向瑞士施加壓力，這是其為調查歐盟逃稅行為而做出的積極努力的一部分，這將在未來引起極大的興趣。
This is not an easy decision for Switzerland. The secrecy of customer accounts was a key strength of the Swiss banking system. The EU has threatened to impose severe sanctions if Switzerland fails to comply with the proposal. Negotiations are currently underway between related government agencies to find a more appropriate solution. This change in Swiss financial regulations will affect the Swiss franc as well as the Swiss economy.對於瑞士來說，這不是一個容易的決定。客戶賬戶的保密性是瑞士銀行系統的主要優勢。歐盟威脅說，如果瑞士不遵守該提議，將實行嚴厲制裁。相關政府機構之間正在進行談判，以尋求更合適的解決方案。瑞士金融法規的這一變化將影響瑞士法郎以及瑞士經濟。
6. 併購 M&A
The primary industries of Switzerland are banking and finance. Mergers and acquisitions in this industry are widespread throughout the industry, resulting in a significant impact on the Swiss franc.
瑞士的主要產業是銀行和金融。該行業中的併購在整個行業中都很普遍，對瑞士法郎產生了重大影響。
If a foreign company acquires a Swiss bank or insurance company, they will have to buy Swiss francs and sell their currency, while if a Swiss bank acquires a foreign company, they will have to sell Swiss francs and buy foreign currency. Either way, Swiss franc traders should pay close attention to M&A announcements related to Swiss companies.
如果一家外國公司收購了一家瑞士銀行或保險公司，則他們將不得不購買瑞士法郎並出售其貨幣，而如果一家瑞士銀行收購了一家外國公司，則將不得不出售瑞士法郎併購買外匯。無論哪種方式，瑞士法郎交易者都應密切注意與瑞士公司有關的併購公告。
7. 交易動向，交叉呼叫特徵。Trading Movement, Cross-Call Characteristics.
EUR/CHF is the most actively traded currency pair for traders who prefer to trade CHF. USD/CHF has relatively few transactions due to its lack of liquidity and high volatility. However, day traders tend to prefer USD/CHF to EUR/CHF because of its volatility.
對於喜歡交易瑞郎的交易者來說，歐元/瑞郎是交易最活躍的貨幣對。由於缺乏流動性和高波動性，美元兌瑞郎的交易相對較少。然而，由於其波動性，日間交易者傾向於美元/瑞郎而不是歐元/瑞郎。
In fact, USD/CHF is only a synthetic currency derived from EUR/USD and EUR/CHF. Market makers and professional traders often use these currency pairs as a leading index to make USD/CHF trading. In theory, the USD/CHF exchange rate is the same as the EUR/CHF divided by EUR/USD.
實際上，USD / CHF只是衍生自EUR / USD和EUR / CHF的合成貨幣。做市商和專業交易員經常使用這些貨幣對作為進行美元/瑞郎交易的領先指數。理論上，美元/瑞士法郎匯率與歐元/瑞士法郎除以歐元/美元相同。
However, its own USD/CHF transactions will only become active during the global hedging trend, such as the Iraq War and the September 11 terrorist attacks. Market participants quickly take advantage of these fine-grained differences in exchange rates to make profits.
但是，其自身的美元/瑞士法郎交易只會在全球對沖趨勢（例如伊拉克戰爭和9月11日恐怖襲擊）中變得活躍。市場參與者迅速利用匯率的這些細微差異來獲利。
Important economic indicators in Switzerland
1. KoF (Swiss Economic Research Institute) Leading Index
The Swiss Economic Research Institute publishes the KoF’s leading economic index. It is commonly used as a measure of the future health of the Swiss economy.
2. Consumer price index
The Consumer Price Index is calculated every month based on retail prices paid in Switzerland. Products selected under general international practice are divided by consumption concepts.
The product basket does not include previous expenditures such as direct taxes, social security, and medical insurance and is an essential measure of inflation.
3. Gross Domestic Product
GDP is the sum of all goods and services produced and consumed in Switzerland. GDP is calculated, including households, businesses, governments, and net foreign purchases (export-income).
These indicators are used to determine the current location of the Swiss business cycle. For example, high growth rates are often considered inflation, and low growth suggests a recession or sluggish economic situation.
4. Balance of payments
The balance of payments is a systematic breakdown of all economic transactions conducted with other countries. The current account is the trade balance plus the service balance.
Switzerland has always maintained a sound current account, so the international balance of payments is an essential indicator for Swiss franc traders. Favourable or unfavourable changes in the current account result in significant changes in the exchange rate.
5. Production Index (Industrial Production)
The Industrial Index is a measure of changes in quarterly industrial output (or actual production by producers).
6. Retail Sales
Retail sales in Switzerland are announced every month after 40 days of the month. This is an important indicator of consumer spending and is not seasonally adjusted.